Powered by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Web Search by YAHOO!
 
Kyle Wingfield

Posted: 11:45 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 3, 2013

Poll: GOP, Dems equally obligated to compromise, end shutdown 

  • comment(108)

By Kyle Wingfield

It is both silly and inescapable to watch the opinion polls regarding the federal government shutdown. Silly, because we all know that's not how lawmakers ought to decide when and how to compromise -- and inescapable, because we all know that's what they're going to do.

So it is quite interesting to delve into the details of the new poll from CBS News, taken since the shutdown began Tuesday. The headline is: "Poll: Americans not happy about shutdown; more blame GOP." But the details tell a much more nuanced story.

First, the topline numbers: 44 percent say congressional Republicans, 35 percent say President Obama and congressional Democrats. Those aren't stellar for the GOP, though they are unchanged from before the shutdown. But it's surprising they aren't worse. In November 1995, for instance, public opinion was split much more sharply: 51 percent back then blamed Republicans in Congress (they held both chambers at the time) whereas just 28 percent blamed President Clinton.

That's a 9-point gap now vs. a 23-point gap back then. Given the lingering disagreement among Republicans about whether the shutdowns in 1995-96 even hurt them in the 1996 elections, today's much narrower gap isn't likely to worry them very much.

Second, what supporters of each party think should happen next is instructive.

Republicans say their side should compromise, by a margin of 59 percent to 38 percent. But even though the GOP gets most of the blame for the shutdown, Democrats are just as likely to say their own party needs to compromise, 61 percent to 36 percent. Among independents, 80 percent say Obama and the Democrats should compromise, and 78 percent say Republicans should compromise. In other words, statistical ties all around.

Folks, those are not the kind of numbers that are going to spur House Republicans to cave in and give Obama and Senate Democrats everything they want. You can bet the numbers are even more in the GOP's favor in more conservative states (such as Georgia).

What I haven't seen is a poll asking people not only whether they think the shutdown and who's to blame, but whether they even care that the federal government is shut down. It's entirely possible the shutdown could be unpopular but also deemed irrelevant by most people. In which case the politics of the shutdown would be even less bad for the GOP.

Of course, a small hole is still a hole, and public sentiment may well change over time. If nothing else, these numbers lead me to believe the shutdown will last long enough for us to see a trend.

My YahooRSS
Kyle Wingfield

About Kyle Wingfield

Kyle Wingfield is the AJC's conservative columnist. He joined the AJC in 2009 after writing for the Wall Street Journal, based in Brussels, and the Associated Press, based in Atlanta and Montgomery, Ala.

Connect with Kyle Wingfield on:FacebookTwitter

Send Kyle Wingfield an email.

  • comment(108)

 

Today on MyAJC.com

Hotoberfest kicks off another season of beer festivals

Hotoberfest kicks off season of beer festivals

Looking for something to do this weekend? If you are a beer lover, you might want to check out Hotoberfest 2013 at Historic Fourth Ward Park on North Avenue.

APS superintendent: Close 13 schools

Image hurts, helps in search for new superintendent

The hunt for a new leader of Atlanta Public Schools has picked up steam, with superintendent candidates being targeted from across the country to replace Erroll Davis, who will retire next year.

myajc logo 300x225

New 24-hour Digital Pass: Sample all of MyAJC.com for 99 cents

With a 24-hour digital pass, you can enjoy full versions of premium articles, news updates and access to the AJC online archives.

Today's top news on ajc.com