It is both silly and inescapable to watch the opinion polls regarding the federal government shutdown. Silly, because we all know that's not how lawmakers ought to decide when and how to compromise -- and inescapable, because we all know that's what they're going to do.
So it is quite interesting to delve into the details of the new poll from CBS News, taken since the shutdown began Tuesday. The headline is: "Poll: Americans not happy about shutdown; more blame GOP." But the details tell a much more nuanced story.
First, the topline numbers: 44 percent say congressional Republicans, 35 percent say President Obama and congressional Democrats. Those aren't stellar for the GOP, though they are unchanged from before the shutdown. But it's surprising they aren't worse. In November 1995, for instance, public opinion was split much more sharply: 51 percent back then blamed Republicans in Congress (they held both chambers at the time) whereas just 28 percent blamed President Clinton.
That's a 9-point gap now vs. a 23-point gap back then. Given the lingering disagreement among Republicans about whether the shutdowns in 1995-96 even hurt them in the 1996 elections, today's much narrower gap isn't likely to worry them very much.
Second, what supporters of each party think should happen next is instructive.
Republicans say their side should compromise, by a margin of 59 percent to 38 percent. But even though the GOP gets most of the blame for the shutdown, Democrats are just as likely to say their own party needs to compromise, 61 percent to 36 percent. Among independents, 80 percent say Obama and the Democrats should compromise, and 78 percent say Republicans should compromise. In other words, statistical ties all around.
Folks, those are not the kind of numbers that are going to spur House Republicans to cave in and give Obama and Senate Democrats everything they want. You can bet the numbers are even more in the GOP's favor in more conservative states (such as Georgia).
What I haven't seen is a poll asking people not only whether they think the shutdown and who's to blame, but whether they even care that the federal government is shut down. It's entirely possible the shutdown could be unpopular but also deemed irrelevant by most people. In which case the politics of the shutdown would be even less bad for the GOP.
Of course, a small hole is still a hole, and public sentiment may well change over time. If nothing else, these numbers lead me to believe the shutdown will last long enough for us to see a trend.
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