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Jay Bookman

Posted: 7:05 a.m. Friday, Oct. 4, 2013

'... know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em' 

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By Jay Bookman

To pull off a manuever of this magnitude with control of just one chamber of just one branch of government, three things are essential for Republicans:

1.) A clear plan of action, with a clear goal;

2.) A party committed to and fully united in support of that plan. 3.) A leader with the power to make deals.

With that in mind, let's take a swing through Washington to see how things are going on Day Four of the Grand Republican Coup:

DISCORD IN THE SENATE:

"Several Senate Republicans — Dan Coats of Indiana, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire — assailed Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who has led the movement to block funding for the health law.

Ms. Ayotte was especially furious, according to two people present, and waved a printout from a conservative group friendly to Mr. Cruz attacking 25 of his fellow Republican senators for supporting a procedural vote that the group counted as support of the health law.

Ms. Ayotte asked Mr. Cruz to disavow the group’s effort and demanded he explain his strategy. When he did not, several other senators — including Mr. Johnson, Mr. Coats and even Mitch McConnell, the minority leader — joined in the criticism of Mr. Cruz.

“It just started a lynch mob,” said a senator who was present." (NYT)

BACKPEDALING BY BOEHNER:

"In meetings with small groups of rank-and-file lawmakers, House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) has emphasized that he will not permit the country to default for the first time on its debt. Given that a bloc of hard-line conservatives is unlikely to vote to increase the limit under any circumstances, Boehner has told fellow Republicans that they must craft an agreement that can attract significant Democratic support.

“This needs to be a big bipartisan deal,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a close Boehner ally, said as he emerged from a luncheon meeting in the speaker’s office Thursday. “This is much more about the debt ceiling and a larger budget agreement than it is about Obamacare.” (WaPo)

"DON'T PANIC!!!!" from THE CONSERVATIVE PRESS:

"There’s no need for Republicans to panic. The government shutdown is not some kind of crisis for American governance (although it certainly does not count as best practices either), or for the party. It always seemed unlikely to produce major Democratic concessions, though, and it still does....

Wait it out; send the Democrats a government-opening bill that they would have a hard time blocking; or make a modest deal: Those seem to us to be the available options. In none of these cases would Republicans achieve a policy triumph for the ages. No strategy gets us there on this side of the next two elections. Any of them would be preferable to the current strategy of a lot of Hill Republicans, which appears to rely heavily on leaking negative comments about colleagues they dislike."(NatReview)

AT THE WHITE HOUSE

"Boehner raised the prospect of a grand bargain-type deal at the White House meeting and was laughed at because everyone feels like they’ve heard this song and dance before. The general feeling is, if he’s really ready to make some tough choices – read, revenue – then great.

But the history of this from where we sit is Boehner talking a big game, then bailing as soon as he runs into the inevitable resistance from a certain faction in his caucus. So we will believe it when we see it, but are proceeding under the assumption that this is just more of the same big talk, no walk." (NatReview, quoting a "senior Democratic source.)

"ET TU, PAUL RYAN?"

"Privately, a healthy number of pragmatic Republicans understand that Obamacare is not going to be defunded — or even touched — in the debt ceiling and government-funding negotiations. At this point, the strong stand against funding government is more about standing firm against Democrats than actually stripping money from Obamacare.

Obama isn’t running for office again, and few Republicans think Boehner will remain in the top post for much longer. Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp (R-Mich.) — who has longed for a rewrite of the Tax Code is nearing the end of his chairmanship. Ryan — who some see as the speaker-in-waiting — is desperate for a budget agreement.

So with the government shut down and the debt ceiling rapidly approaching in the next two weeks, a large number of Republicans see a grand deficit compromise as the only plausible way out."(Politico)

A PLAN? ANYBODY GOT A PLAN?

"But with the deadline for raising the $16.7 trillion borrowing limit less than two weeks away, (Republicans)  also admit they are forging ahead without a clear endgame in mind.

"Everybody's tried to envision one, but nobody has it yet," said Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), an ally of Boehner. "Honestly, I don't know what we're going to do.” (The Hill)

MEANWHILE, IN SHUTDOWN LAND

“The U.S. Army’s chief of staff said on Wednesday the government shutdown was significantly harming the army’s day-to-day operations and he urged a rapid resolution to the funding row.”

“General Ray Odierno said the shutdown ‘impacts significantly day-to-day operations’, forcing the military to cut training and travel and to focus on essential tasks.”

“‘The longer it goes on, the worse it gets. Every day that goes by, we are losing manpower, we are losing capability, so in my mind it is important we get this resolved,’ he told Reuters in a telephone interview from Germany, where he was attending a conference.” (Reuters)

"SCREW YOUR COURAGE TO THE STICKING POINT"

"If those talks don’t bear fruit,(GOP)centrists could decide to try to hijack the floor. One way to get a clean CR would be by voting down a motion to order the previous question. If GOP centrists joined Democrats to vote down the previous question, Democrats could get control of the floor for an hour and might be able to offer a clean CR.

... Asked when he thought the group of moderate Republicans would start voting to do that, (U.S. Rep. Peter) King wasn’t sure.

“I think they should do it now,” he said. “Believe it or not, people don’t always listen to me.”

It’s no secret that King and Rep. Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania have been leading a contingent of moderates, and as of Wednesday afternoon, there were at least 18 Republicans who had publicly stated they would vote for a clean CR.

But ultimately, King said the moderates were going to have fight it out with the far right.

“First of all, I don’t know who they could elect besides John [Boehner]. And sooner or later, we’re going to have to face up to these guys,” King said.(Roll Call)

AND IN THE POLLS:

"On day three of the partial government shutdown, a new CBS News poll reveals that a large majority of Americans disapprove of the shutdown and more are blaming Republicans than President Obama and the Democrats for it.

Fully 72 percent of Americans disapprove of shutting down the federal government over differences on the Affordable Care Act; just 25 percent approve of this action. Republicans are divided: 48 percent approve, while 49 percent disapprove. Most tea party supporters approve of the government shutdown - 57 percent of them do. Disapproval of the shutdown is high among Democrats and independents. (CBS)

 

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Yup. Things are going swimmingly.

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Jay Bookman

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Jay Bookman generally writes about government and politics, with an occasional foray into other aspects of life as time, space and opportunity allow.

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