Hillary Clinton's argument to superdelegates has been fairly simple. She can defeat John McCain in key swing states, while Barack Obama cannot.
While there is certainly a lot of time for Obama to swing things his way in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, a new poll out on Thursday gave voice to exactly what Clinton has been saying for weeks.
Quinnipiac University in Connecticut found that Clinton would defeat McCain in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, while Obama would defeat McCain only in Pennsylvania.
With Obama unlikely to give McCain a run for his money in West Virginia, one could argue that the entire 2008 Presidential election between Obama and McCain could come down to which candidate wins in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
In other words, win two of those, and you win the White House.
All three of those states present some unique challenges for Obama. In Ohio, he lost to Clinton by ten points. Obama won only five of 88 counties in Ohio.
In Florida, Obama lost to Clinton by 17 points. He won only eight of the 67 counties in the Sunshine State.
In Pennsylvania, Obama lost to Clinton by almost 10 points. He won only seven of 67 counties in the Keystone State. In a number of counties, he received less than 30% of the vote.
Obviously, there will be a number of Hillary voters that will go for Obama in November, so that will certainly help the Illinois Senator. But there are clear warning signals from his primary losses in those three states.
"No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College," says the release from Quinnipiac.
One of Obama's biggest weaknesses isn't so much with working class whites as it is with voters who live in Appalachia. Obama was blown out in West Virginia and Kentucky by Clinton.
Other than Hamilton County, which includes Cincinnati, Obama got as little as 19% of the vote in some counties along the Ohio River.
Along the Pennsylvania-Ohio border, Obama won as little as 25% and no more than 37% against Clinton in those counties.
In Florida, he won no county south of Alachua County, home to Gainesville and the University of Florida, which is two hours north of Orlando.
Obama won no county south of Jacksonville and Duval County along I-95. In other words, Clinton owned the state from Cedar Key to Crescent Beach and down to the Keys.
Watch Obama's schedule from now on. If it doesn't include Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, ask yourself whether that schedule should be different.
This year's election will likely be won and lost in those three states.
After a rough week in Washington, President Barack Obama came to rainy Atlanta on Sunday to be with a friendlier crowd, becoming the first sitting president to give the commencement address at Morehouse College.