As October begins (tomorrow, at any rate), Georgia Tech has arrived upon what could well be the defining game of the season.

As a result of the toe stubbing last Thursday night at Bobby Dodd Stadium, Georgia Tech is in what has the looks of a must-win game on the road against arguably the Yellow Jackets’ most pernicious opponent in the ACC.

Could the Jackets lose to Miami and still win the Coastal Division? Possibly, but highly unlikely. For a team loaded with senior starters seemingly primed to hit a peak this season, there’s a lot of chips on the table this week.

The set-up – coach Paul Johnson is 1-4 against the Hurricanes in his five seasons, including the last four in a row. Back in July at the ACC media days event in Greensboro, N.C., guard Will Jackson mentioned that he and his roommate/teammates had decided that “pound for pound, Miami probably does the best job with their scheme of defending us. They’ve got a good plan for trying to defend the option.”

Tech actually put up healthy offensive numbers last year against Miami – 287 rushing yards on 58 carries, 419 yards of total offense, 6.3 yards per play. The trouble was that the well ran dry in the final 16 minutes of regulation. After scoring touchdowns on five of six possessions to take a 36-19 lead, Tech punted on its next three possessions, allowing Miami to race back and tie the game with less than a minute to go in regulation before winning in overtime. Needless to say, the defense played a significant role also. The Hurricanes had scoring drives of 74, 82 and 91 yards to tie the game, going 7-for-10 on third downs.

You could well argue it was the beginning of last season’s downfall. The following week, perhaps hung over from the Miami loss (the second overtime loss in the first four games of the season, you’ll recall), Tech was thrashed at home by Middle Tennessee State. That was a strange time. You may remember that a fan fell out of the stands both games. (not the same fan, thankfully, and both were OK) And then Dan Radakovich left for Clemson about a month later (for reasons unrelated to the fan base's gravity affliction, mind you).

But anyway, here’s the odd thing about Miami’s dominance over Tech. It doesn’t necessarily follow. In the same five-year span in which the Hurricanes have taken care of the Jackets, Miami is 2-3 against Virginia, including three consecutive losses going into this year’s game. The Hurricanes are also 2-3 against North Carolina. Tech, meanwhile, has had the upper hand on both teams.

You could explain it away as Miami being more talented – and recruiting rankings and draft history would strongly suggest that that’s the case – but that doesn’t explain how North Carolina and Virginia have been able to do what Tech has not. Further, Tech’s struggles have spanned two coaching staffs. Randy Shannon was 2-1 against Tech before getting fired and Al Golden is now 2-0.

Miami won in 2009 and 2011 in particular by dominating the line of scrimmage, but Tech’s 36 points in 2012 would suggest that that isn’t the whole story. And I’d say the Jackets proved last year that they can beat Miami. If not for the late-game collapse and Orwin Smith’s safety on a kickoff, Tech probably would have won.

Or maybe it's just that Tech has lost to Miami once a year four consecutive years. That is to say, the losses are not connected and don't necessarily indicate a pattern.

It was Tech's misfortune to have the two biggest ACC games of the year scheduled back to back. The Jackets have already squandered the seemingly more achievable game. They now have the opportunity to win arguably their biggest game since 2009 (also in the argument: Clemson 2011 and USC 2012) and return themselves into the thick of the Coastal race with only one significant hurdle remaining.

Is Tech more than what it showed last Thursday? We may have our answer in six days.