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Posted: 8:28 a.m. Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2013
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Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina
Eddie Lacy, Alabama
Giovani Bernard, North Carolina
Montee Ball, Wisconsin
Christine Michael, Texas A&M
Under Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff, the team has taken on a couple of medical risks in the past.
They selected defensive tackle Peria Jerry in the first round with the 24th overall pick in 2009. He had an extensive injury history at Mississippi.
In 2011, when they were looking for support in the secondary they signed cornerback Kelvin Hayden, who had a neck injury and wasn’t medically cleared by several teams.
“When you start talking about medical issues. . .you get a risk‑reward scenario, and every team is different with how they assign risk versus reward,” NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock said on Monday’s conference call. (Mayock, friend of the blog, was awesome!!! He rolled for two hours-plus, dropping knowledge on the tailback from Rutgers to the tight end from Sam Houston State!!! THANKS MIKE!!!).
Late in the second round, the Falcons will likely be confronted with a dilemma: Pull South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore card off the draft board or pass?
Lattimore, who tore three ligaments and suffered a dislocated right knee against Tennessee on Oct. 27 at Williams Brice Stadium, rushed for a school-record 41 touchdowns and 2,677 yards over his abbreviated college career.
In the Falcons new offense attack under Dirk Koetter, catching the ball out of the backfield is key. Lattimore had 74 catches for 767 yards (10.3 per catch) and three touchdowns.
His recovery period was stated at 12 to 15 months. It was noted by South Carolina’s team doctor that he didn’t suffer any nerve damage or broken bones.
Also, there was the left knee injury that ended his 2011 season.
So, the Falcons will have a big medical file to review.
Lattimore, of Duncan, S.C., likely won’t be available when the Falcons are up in the third round. He won’t be able to help much in 2013, either. But in 2014, he should be fully recovered and perhaps ready to fulfill the promise he showed running for the Gamecocks.
The Falcons seem to like Gamecocks. The current administration inherited defensive end John Abraham. They signed Dunta Robinson in free agency and drafted defensive end Cliff Matthews and defensive tackle Travian Robertson.
Lattimore will be at the combine, but will not workout.
“I think he goes somewhere in the third round,” Mayock said. “And that's, you know, if he was a late‑one to a mid‑two [when] healthy, then I think a third round (grade) is fair for him because you're probably going to get your most production starting two years out.”
The potential reward: Lattimore fully recovers and is the next Adrian Peterson.
The potential risk: Lattimore doesn’t recover and the Falcons burn a second-round pick when they could have added some abled-body defensive help.
Lattimore will undergo extensive medical evaluations at the combine. Teams will have those reports before the draft.
Mayock said that word out of Lattimore’s camp is that his rehab is ahead of schedule.
The good money is on the Falcons taking a running back in this draft. Why not try to hit the home run over taking some player with obvious and known limitations?
The Falcons likely will not have a chance to select Alabama’s Eddie Lacy, the top running back in the draft. He’s projected to be selected by the time the Falcons pick at 30th in the first round.
Also, there is normally running back value throughout the draft.
“Alfred Morris, what a sleeper guy that was,” Mayock said of Morris, who ran for 1,613 yards as a rookie for the Washington Redskins after being selected in the sixth round out of Florida Atlantic in the 2012 NFL draft. “We (covered) him at the East‑West game a year ago. I was fooled like everybody else was.”
Mayock has a another sleeper running back for the Falcons to consider if they pass on Lattimore.
“One of the guys that's had some off the field issues is Christine Michael from Texas A&M,” Mayock said. “I showed up at the East‑West game, and I started laughing. When you saw him next to five other running backs, he stood out like a sore thumb, great speed, quickness.”
The Falcons don’t usually do the whole “off the field issue” thing, but Michael might be worth it. (Only, thing I could find quickly was that he didn’t like Kevin Sumlin’s new offense last season. That’s not a major off the field issue. We’ll keep digging on him to see if there is a real issue. He was a five-star recruit and the Big 12 offensive rookie of the year in 2009.)
“He looked like a first- or second-round running back, and why was he at the East-West game?,” Mayock said. “He should have been at the Senior Bowl. The answer is he had some issues at Texas A&M. So teams will have to do some homework on this kid. Most teams have fourth- or fifth-round grades on him like Morris. He's got first- or second-round talent.”
Rutgers running back Jawan Jamison, Clemson’s Andre Ellington, North Carolina's Giovani Bernard and Wisconsin’s Montee Ball are three other intriguing running backs at the combine.
“I do believe you can find some running backs down the line,” Mayock said.
The second round might be a little high for Lattimore, but Dimitroff has been known to take a few calculated risks in the draft. He has even taken some medical risks.
So, would you pull the trigger on Lattimore in the second round assuming he would be gone in the third? Or, is that too high? Third? Fourth? Fifth? Not at all?
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D. Orlando Ledbetter is currently the Atlanta Falcons Beat Writer for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
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