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Posted: 2:14 p.m. Friday, Sept. 27, 2013
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Assuming Brian McCann’s adductor (groin) muscle strain is as relatively minor as he and the Braves indicated late Thursday, the key difference-maker for the Braves in their division series seems obvious to me.
Jason Heyward.
Yes, you’re only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher, and the Braves will almost certainly need good work from at least two among Kris Medlen, Mike Minor and Julio Teheran if they are to finally end their 12-year drought and win a postseason series. (Their last playoff series win was a 2001 division series against Houston; can you believe that?)
And yes, they need for their top-rated bullpen to pitch the way it has for almost the entire season, and not the way it has in a few recent outings.
But the Braves didn’t get to this point with overpowering, dominant starting pitching, they got here with good, reliable starting pitching. And with three days of rest before the division series, and a day off between games two and three, it’s fairly safe to assume their bullpen is going to benefit from rest and the Braves will only need to lean heavily on a few relievers, including baseball's best closer, Craig Kimbrel.
It’s also safe to assume that Freddie Freeman and Chris Johnson are going to do what they’ve been doing offensively throughout the season, and Andrelton Simmons is going to anchor a quality defense, and Justin Upton or Simmons or Evan Gattis is going to run into one here or there or hit a gapper to drive in a couple of runs. Go ahead, assume all of these things, you have my permission.
All of these things, the Braves can be at least fairly confident about, because they’ve seen them all season. (OK, maybe not against Clayton Kershaw, but otherwise, they have.)
The difference maker, the component that potentially puts them over the top, is Heyward. Specifically, Heyward in the leadoff role.
A lot of people – my hand is raised – questioned whether he would return before the playoffs after getting his jaw broken in two places by a fastball 5-1/2 weeks ago, and even then, we wondered whether he would be effective after missing so much time and stepping back into the box with a protective guard on his helmet to protect his face and the two steel plates that were surgically attached to the fractures.
He was back in 30 days, sooner than anyone predicted. And not just back, but soon back to his his dynamic style, diving for balls, swinging hard, sprinting to beat out an infield hit or take an extra base. He put on a show Thursday, going 5-for-5 with a homer, three doubles and an infield hit in the Braves’ 7-1 rout against the Phillies.
And I can only imagine there were some Braves officials breathing just a little easier. Because as promising as Heyward’s first several games back from the DL had been, on Thursday night he again looked like Heyward the Difference Maker.
Consider: Heyward has hit .343 (37-for-108) in the leadoff spot with nine doubles, six homers and a .408 OBP and .593 slugging percentage. All other Braves have hit a combined .226 (127-for-563) in the leadoff spot, and Jordan Schafer, with a .331 OBP at leadoff, is the only one above .300 OBP of the five other Braves with more than 10 leadoff at-bats.
And this: Among all major leaguers with at least 100 plate appearances in the leadoff spot, Heyward ranks second in average (.343) behind the Dodgers’ Yasiel Puig (.351), second in slugging percentage (.593) behind Puig (.649), third in OBP behind Cincinnati’s Shin-Soo Choo (.434) and Puig (.417), and second in OPS (1.001) behind Puig.
Choo (.919) is the only other major league hitter with an OPS above .890 in at least 100 plate appearances at the leadoff spot, and Choo has done it in 525 at-bats, batting .295 with 21 homers in the leadoff role. (This just in: Choo’s gonna make a whole lot of cash on the free-agent market this winter.)
Heyward, after struggling mightily in his injury-shortened April and May (missed time after appendectomy), has been arguably Braves’ next-best hitter behind Freeman the beginning of June. In his past 70 games, beginning June 2, Heyward has hit .305 with 31 extra-base hits (12 homers), 30 RBIs, and a .377 OBP and .515 slugging percentage.
And in 28 games since July 28, the day after he was moved to the leadoff spot on a regular basis, Heyward has hit .356 (37-for-104) with nine doubles, six homers, 16 RBIs, and a .417 OBP and .615 slugging percentage. Think of the numbers he might have today if he hadn’t missed 30 days recovering from the broken jaw.
Difference maker.
• Boom or bust: The past 11 games served as a sort of microcosm of the Braves’ inconsistent, boom-or-bust offense. They are 5-6 with a .215 batting average and 35 runs in that 11-game stretch, and the Braves scored five or more runs in four of the five wins, and no runs in four of the six losses. They scored one run in another loss.
They have nine home runs in those 11 games, but seven of the homers came in three games. They had four consecutive home games without a homer before Heyward’s first-inning leadoff homer Thursday. But again, it should be noted they’ve been far steadier with Heyard atop the order.
The day after he moved to the leadoff role in late July, the Braves began an 18-4 surge in which they averaged 5.2 runs and he batted .357 with six doubles, five homers, 15 RBIs. Then he had his jaw broken Aug. 21, and the Braves went 13-13 while averaging 3.1 runs over 26 games without him.
Since Heyward came off the disabled list Friday, the Braves are 4-1 with a .283 batting average and 24 runs in five games he’s started, and 0-2 with a .119 batting average and one run in two games without him in the lineup. Fredi Gonzalez said before Friday’s game that after easing Heyward back in, he planned to play him all four games in this season-ending series against the Phillies.
• C. Johnson & batting race: Michael Cuddyer is running away with the batting title after going 17-for-40 (.425) in his past 10 games. Meanwhile, Chris Johnson was 1-for-16 with eight strikeouts in his past four games through Thursday to fall to .323 in second place, 12 points off the lead and only four points ahead of teammate Freddie Freeman (.317).
Cuddyer has raised his average to .335 while hitting .378 (45-for-119) in his past 31 games.
• MVP consideration: I still say Freeman finishes in the top five in the NL MVP balloting, but it could be tough to crack the top three, based on conversations I’ve had with some voters.
Freeman is certainly doing his part to garner votes, hitting .329 (93-for-283) in his past 77 games before Friday, with 31 extra-base hits (16 homers), 59 RBIs, a .410 OBP and .555 slugging percentage.
Entering Friday he was fifth in the league in average (.317), one point behind Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen (.318); fifth in on-base percentage (.340), just ahead of McCutchen (.337); and sixth in slugging percentage (.503), just behind McCutchen (.506). McCutchen, in the view of many, is the MVP frontrunner.
Freeman’s .445 average with runners in scoring position was the second-best in the majors behind St. Louis’ Allen Craig (.454), and Freeman is the only non-Cardinal among the NL’s top six in that category.
Freeman was tied with Jay Bruce for second in the NL in RBIs (107), and he’s seventh in the league in OPS (.899), one spot behind McCutchen (.910).
• Gomez aftermath: Following the suspensions of Reed Johnson and the Brewers’ Carlos Gonzalez announced Thursday for their parts in the benches-clearing incident triggered by Gonzalez’s incendiary trot around the bases Wednesday, longtime Brewers beat writer Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel filed this report for the baseball notes network that we (AJC) are part of:
Carlos Gomez again admitted he acted unprofessionally Wednesday night in Atlanta and accepted a one-game suspension levied by Major League Baseball without appeal Thursday.
The Brewers centerfielder, who also was fined, sat out the series opener against the New York Mets after being suspended for his role in a bench-clearing altercation against the Braves. Gomez stood and watched a home run he hit in the first inning, then began yelling at pitcher Paul Maholm, and it escalated to the point that catcher Brian McCann intercepted him before reaching home plate.
Atlanta's Reed Johnson also was suspended one game for aggressively going after Gomez off the bench. Atlanta's Freddie Freeman and Gerald Laird, who were ejected from that game, received no suspensions. McCann and Freeman were fined.
"I was expecting it after what happened last night," said Gomez, who held a grudge against Maholm for hitting him with a pitch earlier in the season. "It's not good for baseball.
"I'm going to take it like a man and be responsible for the stuff I did. I will take today and then comeback tomorrow and continue to finish the season strong."
The altercation was a topic of much discussion radio, TV and social media Thursday as to who was most responsible for the situation escalating. But Gomez admitted he went too far in his actions after hitting the home run.
"I apologize to people from MLB, to my teammates, my team, the organization and the Braves," he said. "It's not fun when everything happened like that."
Gomez said he never considered an appeal, which could make the suspension carry over to next year with so few days left to hear it.
"What is the chance you win an appeal?" he said. "I don't want to take a chance in 2014 that I won't be there on opening day. It's better to take it now and be over."
Gomez wasn't sure why Johnson came after him so hard off the Braves' bench.
"I don't know," he said. "That's a good question to ask him. I don't know him. I didn't even know he was still playing. He just tried to protect his teammates. He's a fourth outfielder; doesn't play every day. He tried to be a super hero when he didn't even know what happened. But it's his team and he has to protect it."
As for McCann cutting him off in the baseline, Gomez said, "McCann is a team player. He knows I overdo it a little bit. I didn't expect that reaction from him.
"Like I say, I apologize. I'm not supposed to go that far. I wanted to enjoy my home run because of what happened last time, and they know. But my emotions take everything and I went that far. I learn from it and hopefully that's the last time it happens."
One additional bad thing that came out of the altercation was third baseman Aramis Ramirez tweaking the balky left knee that has plagued him throughout the season, resulting in two long DL stints. Ramirez was out of the lineup an unsure if he’d be able to play in the final series.
• Friday’s matchup: It’s the best one we’ve seen in a while – Kris Medlen vs. Phillies ace Cliff Lee.
Lee is 4-1 with a 2.12 ERA in his past seven starts, with 58 strikeouts and five walks in 51 innings. That included a Sept. 6 win against the Braves in Philly, where he allowed just two hits, one run and one walk with 10 strikeouts in eight innings.
A longtime Atlanta nemesis, Lee is 6-2 with a 1.65 ERA in his past nine starts against the Bravos, with 67 strikeouts and five walks in 65-1/3 innings. The lefty is 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA in four starts against them this season.
Reed Johnson is 8-for-20 with a homer against Cliff Lee, and don’t be surprised if you see Reed in the lineup tonight as Fredi Gonzalez seeks to get Johnson some at-bats to shake off more rust after his DL stint for Achilles tendinitis.
Justin Upton is 7-for-20 against Lee, Freeman is 7-for-30 with one walk and 10 strikeouts against him, Dan Uggla is 7-for-34 with two homers and 14 strikeouts, and Heyward is 3-for-19. Gerald Laird is 2-for-20 with nine strikeouts against Lee, so I’m thinking maybe Gattis catches and Reed Johnson starts in one of the outfield spots.
Medlen comes in on his best run since last season. He’s 8-1 with a 2.28 ERA in his past 10 starts, with 58 strikeouts and 11 walks in 67 innings. Medlen is 5-0 with a 1.05 ERA in his past five home starts, with 29 strikeouts, four walks and no homers allowed in 34-1/3 innings.
The Phillies have given him fits in the past, and Medlen is 3-2 with a 5.17 ERA and .306 opponents’ average in 17 career games (six starts) against them. He’s 2-2 with a 5.01 ERA in four starts against them this season, including an impressive win in the most-recent start: Aug. 13 at Turner Field, when he limited Philly to five hits, one run and one walk in seven innings. Against Medlen, Carlos Ruiz is 6-for-9, Darin Ruf is 3-for-6 with a homer, Domonic Brown is 4-for-9 with a homer, Chase Utley is 6-for-14 with a homer, and Jimmy Rollins is 4-for-19. Medlen again won’t have to face the injured Ryan Howard, who is 5-for-10 with two homers against him. Howard has been out since early July with a knee injury.
• Here's one from an entirely underrated band, The Delgados. Listen and watch the video by by clicking here.
“ALL YOU NEED IS HATE” by The Delgados
This was how I broke the best
Indifference, overblown with confidence and ignorance
It all made sense
And then I watched them take the test
I believe it's better to inflict than to attempt relief
You ask me what you need
Hate is all you need
Hate is all around find it in your heart in every waking sound
On your way to school, work or church you'll find that it's the only rule
Build a different world, hate will help you find what you've been looking for
Hate is everywhere, inside your mother's heart and you will find it there
You ask me what you need hate is all you need
This was how I won the west
Charity, a joke that friendly cities think that we believe
Or so it seems
We kicked and punched and stabbed to death
And everyone applauded my fine actions I was overcome
You ask me what I've seen
Hate is all I've seen
Hate is in the air
Come on people feel it like you just don't care
Everlasting hate feel it in the people where it's warm and great
Come on hate yourself everyone here does so just enjoy yourself
Hate is everywhere, look inside your heart and you will find it there
You ask me what I mean
Hate is all I mean
David O'Brien has covered the Atlanta Braves for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution since 2002, and previously covered the Marlins for the (Fort Lauderdale) Sun-Sentinel for seven years.
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