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Atlanta Braves Blog / David O'Brien

Posted: 2:10 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2013

Braves can boost postseason chances by finishing strong 

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simmons photo
Andrelton Simmons (right) tries to avoid B.J. Upton and the rest of his teammates who are ready to pound on him in celebration after Simmons' game-ending hit Tuesday, his third walk-off hit of the season.

By David O'Brien

 

  By now, most Braves fans fully understand how important it is for this team to keep winning games and try to finish with the National League’s best record, thereby assuring itself of home-field advantage through the league championship series.

   Folks understand why that carrot has been even more enticing for Atlanta than other NL team, since the Braves are the only one of 10 likely playoff teams in either league that will finish with a sub-.500 road record (40-41), while their 53-23 home record is the best in baseball.

  That’s obviously a huge disparity – one game under .500 on the road, and 30 games over .500 at home – and not a fluke thing. Not after 157 games.

  It is what is is, and this Braves simply play far better at home and with more confidence knowing they have the last at-bat. They have more comeback wins (44) than any other NL team, and Andrelton Simmons’ walk-off single Tuesday gave them the second-most final at-bat wins in the majors (24).

  But there is also another reason finishing with the best record is important: It means the Braves, as the top seed in the NL, would play the winner of the Wild Card game in the division series. That team will have used one of its best starting pitchers, most likely its ace, in the Wild Card game on Tuesday, putting it at a disadvantage when the division series begins Thursday.

 The Braves would still have home-field advantage for the first round of the playoffs even if they finish with the NL’s second-best record, but they wouldn’t face the winner of the Wild Card game in the division series. Instead, they would face a division winner. And that would likely be the Dodgers, given the current standings, with the Braves just a half-game ahead of the Cardinals before today (but really 1-1/2 games, since they own the head-to-head tiebreaker should they finish with the same record).

 The Braves are a full two games ahead of the Dodgers with five to go. And again, that’s actually three games, since they also own the tiebreaker against the Dodgers should they finish with the same record.

  Let’s stop there to clarify something for those who might not be aware: The Braves have already secured head-to-head tiebreakers against all of the other NL playoff teams. They went 5-2 against the Dodgers, and 4-3 against all three Central teams – Cards, Reds, Pirates – that are fighting it out for the division crown and two wild card spots.

  So anyway, if the Braves were to finish with the second-best record behind the Cardinals, they would face the Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs, and the Cardinals would face the winner of the Wild Card game (there is no longer a rule that a division champion can’t face a wild card team from its own division; that rule was dropped by necessity last year when the second wild card in each league was added to the playoff format).

  In that scenario, as long as the Braves finished with the same or better record than the Dodgers, the Braves would have  home-field advantage for that division series. Of course, it doesn’t really matter where you face Clayton Kershaw, the overwhelming favorite for the NL Cy Young. The Braves avoided facing him in either of their series against the Dodgers this season, and also played all their games against them before the Dodgers heated up.

  So you really would prefer to not face the Dodgers, with aces Kershaw and Zack Greinke, in the first round.

  Having said that, the Dodgers have not been the same team in September as they were for the previous couple of months. In fact, they’re not playing as well as either the Reds and the Cardinals in September.

 The Braves, Pirates and Dodgers all have struggled to varying degrees for much of September, and the Braves have actually been treading water for longer than that. Since ending their 14-game winning streak Aug. 10, the Braves have hit .229 while going 22-19 in their past 41 games, most of that without Jason Heyward in the lineup as he recovered from a broken jaw.

  They’ve hit just .210 and totaled 63 runs during their past 20 games, going 9-11 despite a strong 3.16 ERA in that span. And since a six-game home winning streak in late August, the Braves have gone 4-5 in their past nine home games, scoring three runs or fewer in eight of those nine games and getting shut out three times.

   The Dodgers, meanwhile, are 11-11 in September including 8-11 with a .242 BA and 3.80 ERA in their past 19 games.

   The Reds are 14-8 with a .255 BA, 2.89 ERA and 98 runs in September, including 6-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 46 runs in their past eight games. And the Braves have had some rough times at Cincy’s “Great American Small Park” in recent years.

   The Cardinals are 15-8 with a 3.04 ERA in September, including 13-5 with a .280 BA, 2.85 ERA and 100 runs in their past 18 games. They have kept up their jaw-dropping average with runners in scoring position, and are finishing strong even without injured Allen Craig and with closer problems.

  The Pirates have been similar to the Braves and Dodgers, going 12-11 with a .235 BA and 4.01 ERA in September, including 6-6 with a .218 BA, 3.14 ERA and 45 runs in their past 12 games. But after securing a playoff berth for the first time in about a generation, and doing at the same time as the Steelers are woeful – also a rarity -- the Pirates will have a lot of energy in that ballpark in the postseason.

   In other words, there are no easy draws. You’d take a matchup with the Pirates, given your druthers. And despite the Dodgers’ recent lackluster stretch, I still don’t think you want to face that team in the first round, with Kershaw and Greinke almost certainly pitching the first two games.

  But one thing is certain: The Braves really need to themselves a favor and finish strong to get the best record, which would earn them both home-field advantage and a first-round matchup with the Wild Card team (and not the Dodgers).

  With only five games left on the schedule, all at home, and four of them against a Phillies team that’s tied with the Mets for third in the division and has a 29-47 road record, the Braves won’t have anyone to blame but themselves if they don’t finish with the NL’s best record.

BRAVES LINEUP Wednesday

  1. Simmons ss
  2. JUpton rf
  3. Freeman 1b
  4. Gattis lf
  5. McCann c
  6. CJohnson 3b
  7. EJohnson 2b
  8. BUpton cf
  9. Maholm p

Batting title update:  Chris Johnson is 10-for-36 (.278) with a double and a homer in his past 10 games, including 0-for-8 with four strikeouts in the first two games of the Milwaukee series. That’s dropped his average to .327, second in the NL batting race and eight points behind leader Michael Cuddyer of the Rockies. St. Louis’ Matt Carpenter (.324) is third.

  By the way, MVP candidate Freddie Freeman (.316) is sixth in the batting race. In his past 20 games, the Braves first baseman has hit .373 (28-for-75) with six homers, 18 RBIs, a .442 OBP and .653 slugging percentage.

 • The shortstop is good: Andrelton Simmons has provided another peek of his offensive potential in recent weeks, and a reminder of just how blindingly bright his future should be. He’s hit .277 with a .344 OBP and .555 slugging percentage in his past 37 games, going 33-for-119 with nine doubles, three triples, six home runs and 18 RBIs in that span.

  He has 11 walks and just 13 strikeouts in those 37 games – as many strikeouts as some hitters on this team compile in a normal week. Simmons also has six RBIs in his past five games, including a very big one in the ninth inning Tuesday to walk off the Brewers.

   • After much talking, Nats done: Until the Braves finally wrested the division title from the 2012 champion Washington, the Nats wouldn’t stop talking about how they believed they were better than the Braves, even though Atlanta went 13-6 with a 2.22 ERA against them this season. Seriously, they wouldn’t stop talking.

  -- Mid-April and Braves sweep Nationals in D.C. to go 3 ½ up in NL East: 

  Infielder Danny Espinosa on April 13 after a 3-1 Braves victory: "They’re good, I don’t think they’re better than us. They’re a good ballclub, they have talent. They’re hot right now, they only lost one game, but they’re hot. It all evens out." 

 Espinosa after 9-0 Braves victory on April 14 to sweep the series: "I still don’t think that they’re better than us. They’re hot right now. They’ve come back on some people, they’re playing well, it doesn’t last forever so I’m not worried about it."

  Before Nationals come to Atlanta on April 28 for three-game series, with Braves up by 2 ½ games: 

  Pitcher Jordan Zimmermann: "Obviously, we want to go in there and take care of business. They came [to Nationals Park] and pretty much embarrassed us. We didn't play very well that series. … We feel we are playing pretty good ball right now. We'll go down there and try to win as many ballgames as we can and win the series down there. We can try to sweep them at their place and send a message that we are a lot better than we showed [at Nationals Park]."

 Outfielder Jayson Werth: "They were hot. They were on a roll. We weren't playing real well. That happens sometimes. That's why you play each other 18 times in the division. … At the end of the year, whoever has the best record wins the division. We have a long way to go, a lot of games to play and we'll be all right."

May 2 after teams split four games at Turner Field and Braves remain 2 ½ games up: 

 Pitcher Gio Gonzalez:  “We’re off to a slow start. Once we turn it around it’s going to be a big change.”

On Tuesday July 9, before All-Star game, Braves lead by 6: 

  Outfielder Bryce Harper:  “It’s going to go down to the wire. The Phillies are playing good and the Braves have played well all year. We’re playing pretty good, too. We’re lucky to be at .500 right now, but we’ve got a great team and we’re expecting to be right there at the end.’’

 On Wednesday July 31,  the Braves lead by 11 with 54 games to go: 

 Harper:  “We need to get going and play better, hit better, have better ABs in certain situations and pitch better also. It’s just something we need to do. We play the Braves nine games. This [expletive] ain’t over. I really don’t think it’s over. We just got to keep going, keep grinding and turn into the family that we were last year.”

 On Sept. 15 with Braves up 10 games and 13 to play before Braves visit for final series:

   Manager Davey Johnson: “We played them a lot of close games, but we didn’t hold our own with ’em. And we need to at least send a message to them these next three days that we’re better than them.”

    • Tonight’s matchup: It’s Paul Maholm against Brewers veteran righty Kyle Lohse.

  Maholm is 1-1 with a 4.55 ERA in five starts since returning from a DL stint for a thumb injury, and this could be his last Braves start if the lefty is passed over for the fourth spot in the postseason rotation.

  He’s 2-8 with a 7.09 ERA in his past 14 road starts, compared to 6-2 with a 2.18 ERA in nine home starts this season. The Braves have provided nearly seven support runs for every nine innings that Maholm has pitched in home games, and he allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight consecutive home starts before giving up three in five innings of a Sept. 2 win against the Mets in his most-recent start at Turner Field.

  Maholm, who faced the Brewers regularly with the Pirates and Cubs, is 4-11 with a 5.19 ERA in 23 career starts against them, including 1-6 with a 6.26 ERA in his past nine. He snapped an eight-start winless streak against the Brewers on June 23 when he allowed eight hits and four runs in five innings of a 7-4 Braves win at Milwaukee.

 Against Maholm, Jonathan Lucroy is 6-for-11 with two homers, Aramis Ramirez is 11-for-44 with two homers, and Norichika Aoki is 4-for-8.

  The Braves won’t have an easy night against Lohse.  After going 8-2 with a 2.66 ERA in 17 starts from June 9 through Sept. 1, Lohse is 1-2 with a 5.21 ERA in his past three. But that’s a bit misleading – he gave up 11 hits and seven runs in five innings on Sept. 6 against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, and allowed 11 hits and four runs total in 14 innings over his past two starts against the Reds and Cubs.

  Lohse is like Maholm in that he’s pitched better at home, although the difference isn’t anything like the extreme disparity that Maholm has. Lohse is 3-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 15 road starts, including 0-1 with a 10.45 ERA and .426 opponents’ average in his past two. He gave up 13 hits and five runs in 5-1/3 innings at Pittsburgh on Aug. 27, then got rocked at Wrigley on Sept. 6.

  In 16 home starts, he’s  7-4 with a 2.97 ERA.

  He lost his first start against the Braves in 2002, and since then Lohse is 3-0 with a 4.11 ERA in nine starts against Atlanta, including just one in the past three seasons. He got no decision in that May 2012 start at Turner Field after allowing nine hits, five runs and two homers  in five innings.

   Against Lohse, B.J. Upton is 4-for-6, Reed Johnson is 4-for-10, Dan Uggla is 5-for-15 with a homer, Freddie Freeman is 2-for-3 with a homer, and Brian McCann is 5-for-20 with a homer. Meanwhile, Chris Johnson is 2-for-10 and Justin Upton 2-for-13 against the righty.

   • Tying Battle Axe and Big Cat: When Jason Giambi hit a walk-off homer for the Indians on Tuesday, he became just the third player to multiple walk-off home runs in a single season at age 40 or older. You good readers will be familiar with the other two:  Chipper Jones did it last season, and Andres Galarraga did it in 2001, a year after he left the Braves.

• Let's close with one from the late, great Joe Strummer, which you can hear by clicking here.

“TRASH CITY” by Joe  Strummer & the Mescaleros

In Trash City on Party Avenue
I got a girl from Kalamazoo
In Trash City on a transit line
I put you on hold but you're looking fine

In Trash City on Party Avenue
I got a girl from kalamazoo
In Trash City on a transit line
I put you on hold but you're looking fine

When I see your car at the donut house
Wanna see a movie 'bout a creeper on the house
Wanna go bowling wanna chuck some rocks
Wanna come to my house and change all the locks

In Trash City on Party Avenue
I got a girl from Kalamazoo
In Trash City on a transit line
I put you on hold but you're sure looking fine

Sing you a song like rubber on a turn
Fifty-seven records that you know you ought to burn
Garbagemen don't care for the blues or rock n' roll
It's five o'clock in the morning in a coffee shop in Seoul

First I got a hot dog in a nightmare zone
Then I vandalize a cheap payphone
Crying to the girls won't you leave me alone
Makin' love in the graveyard with cockroach bones

In Trash City on Party Avenue
I got a girl from Kalamazoo
In Trash City on a transit line
I put you on hold but you sure look fine

First I got a hot dog in a nightmare zone
Then I vandalize a cheap payphone
Cryin' to the girls won't you leave me alone
Ain't makin' love with cockroach bones

Down on transit avenue
I got a girl from Kalamazoo
Down on Transit Avenue Panama Time
To hold to be real fine

One time!

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David O'Brien

About David O'Brien

David O'Brien has covered the Atlanta Braves for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution since 2002, and previously covered the Marlins for the (Fort Lauderdale) Sun-Sentinel for seven years.

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