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Atlanta Braves Blog / David O'Brien

Posted: 1:41 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 3, 2013

Postseason time in ATL, this time an actual series 

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heywardhug
The Braves have been a far better team when Jason Heyward is atop the batting order, where he'll be tonight for Game 1 of the division series against the Dodgers.

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medlen photo
Kris Medlen, an L.A.-area native and the NL Pitcher of the Month in September, gets the start for Atlanta tonight against the Dodgers.
Kurt Vile photo
Kurt Vile

   Even if there’s not exactly a nip in the October air, it’s postseason time again in Atlanta. Not that Wild Card game of last year, when a sloppy Braves defensive inning and sloppy umpiring led to a loss against the Cardinals and an exit before Atlanta even got to the actual postseason. (Even most players call the Wild Card game a play-in game, not a playoff game).

   And not 2010, when the Braves limped into the division series without two of their best players, Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, who had suffered season-ending injuries, and then lost closer Billy Wagner during the series. They lost in four games to the eventual World Series champion Giants, with all four games decided by one run.

  This time, the Braves enter a real playoff series with a team as healthy as its been at any point all season. And even if playing .500 ball down the stretch while the Cardinals were surging – sound familiar? – caused the Braves to fritter away the NL’s best record and home-field advantage for the NLCS if they happen to play St. Louis, it still left Atlanta with its first division title since 2005 and with home-field advantage in the first round against the West champion Dodgers.

  And by the way, if you saw the electric atmosphere for the Wild Card game this week in Pittsburgh, where they hadn’t had another postseason since Sid slid for the Braves against the Pirates in ’92, well, are you really certain that drawing the Pirates as the No. 1 seed would have been a lot better option than drawn Kershaw, Greinke and the Dodgers? I’m not so sure anymore.

  Anyway, the Braves are either putting up a good front or weren’t nearly as upset about losing the top seed as were so many of our readers and other Braves fans. The NLCS is a best-of-seven series with a 2-3-2 format, while the division series is a best-of-five with a 2-2-1 format, with the first two games here in Atlanta and a Game 5 back here if the series goes the distance.

  “If you’ve got to go on the road in the second round and win one (of the first two games), then you’ve got three at home,” said Braves veteran backup catcher Gerald Laird. “Then you come home and win the series or go up 3-2. If you can’t win one out of the next two you don’t deserve to go to the World Series. In my eyes it really doesn’t make a difference.”

  As you’ve probably noticed, we reporters go to Gerald Laird a lot more than you might expect of a backup catcher, especially the backup on a team with a seven-time All-Star catcher (Brian McCann).

 Well, here’s why: Laird is a great quote and always accessible, but also has the gravitas that comes with playing 11 seasons in the majors and playing in the World Series each of the past two years, with the Cardinals in 2011 and Tigers in 2012.

  He knows what it takes for a team to navigate through two postseason series and reach the World Series, and he played in two World Series games in each of the past two years (he only had seven total plate appearances, but he played). He  knows the game inside and out, and the differences between the regular season and postseason.

  One criticism of the Braves – and a valid one – was that in recent years they struggled mightily against a lot of unknown and/or mediocre pitchers, often rookies they hadn’t faced before. Well, they won’t face that type of pitcher in the playoffs.

 They’ll start out facing the Dodgers, who have baseball’s best starting pitcher – Clayton Kershaw, who faces Kris Medlen in Game 1 – and one of the best No. 2 starters in Zack Greinke, who’ll face Mike Minor in Game 2 on Saturday. The Dodgers had the majors’ second-best team ERA (3.25) – second to the Braves’ 3.18.

 “Any team you face in the postseaon is going to have good pitching,” Laird said.  “Look at Pittsburgh, (Francisco) Liriano is pitching as well as anyone in the big leagues right now. And you’ve got their bullpen. And St. Louis with (Adam) Wainwright and their starting staff.

  “I know Kershaw is probably the best in the big leagues right now, but why not get it over with in the first round if you draw them? Yeah, you probably have to beat him twice, but that’s what people thought about us last year in Detroit. We had (Justin) Verlander, (Max) Scherzer and (Doug) Fister -- and we got beat in the World Series, with ease.”

  The man had a point. Verlander was 17-8 with a 2.64 ERA and 239 strikeouts in 238-1/3 innings last season, and Scherzer was 16-7 with a 3.74 ERA and 231 strikeouts in 187-2/3 innings (stats provided for all those who think power arms are the golden ticket in the postseason).

  The Tigers got swept by the Giants in the World Series.

  The Giants had strong pitching and an offense that didn’t strike out much or depend on home runs. The Braves have strong pitching and an offense that does strike out a lot and does depend on home runs too much, or has for much of the season.

   When they’re at their best, such as the 18-4 run after Heyward moved into the leadoff role (before he got his face smashed by a Jonathan Niese fastball), the Braves are a more balanced offense, with speed and a better OBP. And the whiffs weren’t as prevalent after B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla started playing a lot less.

   Heyward returned sooner than most of us expected from his broken jaw, and better than many of us who expected it might take a while for  him to get over the psychological factor. He slipped back into the lineup and within a week had a career-best five-hit game that included a homer and three doubles.

   The Braves muddled through much of September without him, but went 6-2 in his eight starts after returning from the DL two weeks ago.

  “If we just continue and do what we do and play our baseball,” Laird said, “ he good thing about us – I mean, no doubt Kershaw’s a great pitcher, but if he makes one mistake to guys in our lineup, it can wind up as a crooked number and a home run. We have guys who can go deep, one through eight. That’s always an advantage.”

  And it’s not as if the Braves haven’t recently beaten a pitcher as dominant as Kershaw. A week ago, Cliff Lee struck out 13 in eight innings, and Medlen and the Braves beat Lee and the Phillies 1-0.

   Medlen is 9-1 with a 2.04 ERA in 11 starts since Tim Hudson’s season-ending ankle injury, and the Los Angeles-area native was named NL Pitcher of the Month for the second year in a row.  I asked baseball Hall of Famer Don Sutton about him a few days ago.

  “It’s almost like they took the spirit of Tim Hudson and injected it into Kris Medlen, and that’s a good thing,” said Sutton, the Braves broadcaster and former Dodgers pitching great. “He’s doing all the same things I would expect Hudson to do, and that’s a real compliment. Because Tim Hudson is a guy I want to go to war for me, anytime.”

    Medlen was 5-0 with an 0.84 ERA in his last six regular-season starts, and allowed one run, eight hits and four walks with 13 strikeouts in 15-1/3 innings over his last two starts against the Cubs and Phillies.

 “Oh, yeah, Med’s probably been right up there with the best in the big leagues the past two months,” Laird said. “He’s been absolutely phenomenal the last two months of the season, and it’s nice to see his last two outings, at Chicago and then here (against Philly), leading up to the postseason. He’s as sharp as he’s been all year, and for me, as good as anyone in the big leagues right now.”

 • Looking at both teams: The Braves posted 96 wins and the second-best record in the NL, one game behind St. Louis. But some skeptics have noted that they started the season 12-1 and had a 14-game winning streak beginning in late July, and were otherwise just five games over .500 for the rest of the season.

  Most of those folks, like almost every pundit, is picking the Dodgers.

   “That’s the good thing about it,” Laird said, “I don’t think this team fears anybody, and we’ve kind of been that, I wouldn’t say underdog, but that team nobody is giving respect to. I mean, we’ve been in first place longer than any team in the big leagues. You just don’t get lucky for six months.”

  Some dismiss the Braves’ 5-2 record against the Dodgers by pointing out that it came before the Puig-and-Hanley fueled Dodgers offense ignited and Don Mattingly’s crew became baseball’s hottest team for a couple of summer months.

  But what I don’t get is how some of the same people who say the Braves were barely a .500 team outside of that 12-1 start and 14-game winning streak, don’t seem to see any similar importance to the fact that the Dodgers got half of their wins this season in a two-month period this summer, and were otherwise a 46-70 team, including 16-18 in their final 34 games as the injuries mounted and Puig came back to earth.

  The Dodgers had a 2.43 ERA while batting .281 and scoring 4.75 runs per game in that ridiculous 46-10 two-month blast. But the Dodgers had an ERA nearly a run higher (3.40) and a scoring output a run lower (3.76) over their last 34 games.

   Hey, maybe if they had a recent September collapse on their resume, more folks might’ve noticed. As it were, the popular response from Dodger supporters was that Mattingly tinkered with the lineup and/or rested guys during September. (Yes, in large part because he didn’t have much choice due to injuries, including two big ones that have lingered – outfielders Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp. Ethier is likely just a pinch-hitter if he’s on the series roster, and Kemp won’t play in the postseason.)

   Kershawwas 10-4 with a 1.57 ERA and .198 opponents’ average in his last 16 starts this season, with 114 strikeouts and only 19 walks in 114-2/3 innings. And he went seven innings or more in 12 of those games. He’s a spectacular pitcher.

  But guess what? The opposing team won six of those 16 games.

   Greinke actually has been the Dodgers’ closest to a sure thing in the past couple of months, going 7-1 with a 1.58 ERA and .204 opponents’ average in his past 12 starts, with 73 strikeouts and only 15 walks and four homers allowed in 79-2/3 innings. The Dodgers won 10 of those 12 games.

  But ... Greinke has pitched in three postseason games, all with Milwaukee in 2011, and the results weren’t good. He went 1-1 with a 6.48 ERA in those three games, allowing 23 hits, 12 earned runs, four homers and four walks in 16-2/3 innings. So it’s not as if he’s proven on the biggest stage anymore than the Braves’ first three starters.

   The Dodger pitcher that  keeps getting overlooked in all this is No. 3 starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, a rookie left-hander who went 14-8 with a 3.00 ERA. He had a 2.57 ERA in his last 11 starts, with 58 strikeouts and only eight walks in 70 innings. But again, the Dodgers were only 6-5 in those games.

  Greinke will face Mike Minor, who fell off some in the second half and went 2-4 with a 4.30 ERA in his last 10 starts, while Ryu will be opposed by fellow rookie Julio Teheran, who 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA in his last eight starts, with 49 strikeouts and 15 walks in 48-2/3 innings over that stretch.

  The Game 4 matchup could be intriguing, with big ol’ Braves journeyman Freddy Garcia – picked over Paul Maholm – facing former Marlin Ricky Nolasco (13-11, 3.70), unless the Dodgers face elimination and decide to bring back Kershaw on short rest.

 Garcia was 1-2 with a 1.65 ERA in six games (three starts) after the Braves brought him up from Triple-A, and had 20 strikeouts and five walks in 27-1/3 innings. He had a 1.83 ERA in three starts, allowing one homer in 19-2/3 innings. His only loss came against the Nats, and he only gave up seven hits and one run in seven innings of that game at D.C.

 “The  Chief,” as he’s  known, is listed as 6-4 and 255 pounds, and that may be a conservative estimate. He has more postseason experience than the rest of the roster combined -- a 6-3 record and 3.28 ERA in 10 postseason starts, including seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball in a World Series-clinching Game 4 win for the White Sox in 2005 at Houston.

  And for those who’ve asked why Maholm was left off the roster: He was 1-5 with a 6.00 ERA and .317 opponents’ average in nine starts after July 1, and for the season he was 4-8 with a 5.91 ERA in 16 road starts. He also has no postseason experience, but that wasn’t a deciding factor; his performance in the second half of the season was.

 • The (ugly) recent playoff history: I’m going to hit you with a barrage of numbers here that illustrate just how much the Braves’ postseason fortunes changed after a couple of memorable years (1995-96) when they went to consecutive World Series, winning the former and losing the latter after blowing two-game lead against the Yankees.

   The Braves went 20-6 with a .283 batting average, 139 runs and a 2.13 ERA in 26 postseaon games from the beginning of the 1995 postseason through those first two wins in the ‘96 World Series against the Yankees.

   Since then, the Braves are 29-42 with a .237 average and 3.61 ERA and 268 runs in their past 71 postseason games.

   It gets uglier.

  They are 13-29 with a .232 BA and 4.29 ERA in their past 42 postseason games, including 9-20 beginning with the 4-1 series loss to Arizona in the ’01 NLCS. That came after the Braves had swept Houston in the division series that year, their last playoff series win.

  The Braves are 0-6 in postseaon series since then, plus the Wild Card game loss to the Cardinals in 2012.

  What’s been particularly troubling is the home struggles in those postseasons. Turner Field became the place where other teams clinched.

  The Braves are 5-16 with a .235 average, 67 runs scored and a 4.29 ERA in their past 21 home playoff games, and haven’t won consecutive home postseason games since winning four in a row against Houston and the Mets  in the first two rounds of the 1999 postseason. That ended an era in which the Braves went 19-10 with a 2.23 ERA in a stretch of 29 home playoff games, including 12-4 with a 1.86 ERA and 82 runs scored in 16 home playoff games.

  What does this all mean to the current Braves? Just about nothing.

  “No one (on this team) has even been a part of it,” said McCann, the only Brave on the current roster who has even played  in a postseason series with Atlanta other than the 2010 division series. “Those 14 years (division-title streak through 2005), I caught the tail end of it, the last year, and at 21years old, I didn’t know anything. I’m out there just enjoying the moment and hiding in the eight-hole in the bottom of the order.

  “I don’t think anybody thinks about it. once these games start it’s about us vs. them, it’s about Medlen vs. Kershaw. And whoever plays the best is going to win.”

   During the division-title streak, a somewhat-jaded fan base became known for not filling Turner Field for the first round of the postseason, a reputation that still lives despite the fact that more than 52,000 packed the place for the Wild Card game in 2012 for a 5:07 p.m. Friday start in a city with horrific traffic, particularly after 3 p.m. on a Friday.

  It’s almost never mentioned that most newer (and the really old) ballparks have seating capacities of 38,000-42,000.

   Someone asked McCann about the atmosphere at Pittsburgh this week and whether he expected it would be a similar scene at Turner Field tonight.

   “This is one of the best places to play,” he said. “When this place is sold out, it’s deafening. It’s an amazing experience and I’m looking forward to (Thursday) night.”

   As for any “mentoring” role he might play with younger Braves in the postseason, McCann said, “No. Once the playoff starts you don’t need to mentor anybody. There’s not a better feeling in the world. Once you step between those white lines for a playoff game. every pitch means something. For 3 ½ hours you’re as locked in as you could possibly be. So there’s no lecturing.

  “We have a great team. we’ve got the best home record in all of baseball and we’re very confident playing at home.”

 • So who are these Braves?

 These weren’t the 104-win Braves of 1993, who had David Justice and Ron Gant combining for 76 homers and 237 RBIs, Otis Nixon and Gant stealing 73 bases between them, and starting pitchers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Steve Avery winning a whopping 75 games, including 22 by Glavine and 20 by Maddux. (By the way, those Braves swept a three-game playoff series against the Dodgers, the only time they’ve met in the postseason until now.)

  These weren’t the 106-win Braves of 1998, who had four players  hit more than 30 home runs, including Andres Galarraga with 44, and who only used five starting pitchers all season, each of whom won at least 16 games and three of whom posted ERAs of 2.90 or below (Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz).

  They weren’t he 103-win Braves of 1999, who rode the bat of MVP Chipper Jones (.319, 45 homers, 110 RBIs, 25 stolen bases) and his monster second half, and got  20-plus homers from four others and 115 RBIs from Brian Jordan.

  Nor were these the 101-win Braves of 2003, who got a stunning 145 homers and 463 RBIs from the quartet of Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez and the Joneses, Chipper and Andruw. Three had over 35 homers , and the lowest RBI total among the four was Chipper’s 106.

   These Braves had five players with at least 20 homers, although none with more than Justin Upton’s 27. They had seven players with at least 50 RBIs, but only Freddie Freeman (107) with more than 70. They had only three players with more than eight stolen bases, and one with as many as 15 (Jordan Schafer, 22). They had six players with more than 20 doubles, but only one with more than 27 (Chris Johnson, 37).

   They had four starting pitchers with at least 10 wins, but none of those had more than 15 wins or fewer than eight losses.

   What they had were legitimate threats  up and down the lineup who could supply a big hit or home run on any given night, and starting pitchers who each was capable of striking out 8-10 on any given night but whose real strength was being able to consistently pitch 6-8 quality innings and get the game to the bullpen. And, oh yes, they had the game’s best bullpen led by the most dominant closer of the past three seasons, Craig Kimbrel.

    “It’s gonna be tough if we’re  not on (offensively),” Laird said. “But it just takes like the other night, when Med pitched against Cliff Lee, Med’s got the stuff to keep us games  like that, and then we have guys that with one swing can make a difference.” (Chris Johnson’s eighth-inning homer was the difference against Lee.)

   Said the former Dodger great Sutton: “If I were pitching against this (Braves) team, they would concern me because of the unpredictability. I like consistency. So you’ve got three guys who hit home runs? OK, I know that. You’ve got three guys that strike out, I know that. You’ve got one guy that will run. As a pitcher, I like knowing.

 “You can’t predict with this team. And from a pitcher’s standpoint, I’ve asked a couple of scouts, how do you write a  scouting report on (the Braves)? And they go, ‘You just hope you have it right that day.’ I’ve had more than one scout say, ‘I hope I have it right that day.’

   “I think the whole thing hinges on that front three (starters) getting to the back side with a lead. You don’t give up many, you don’t have to score many.”

 • Oso Blanco by-the-numbers:  Rookie Evan Gattis’ 21 homers included six apiece in April, May and September, while playing between 21 and 25 games in each of those months and totaling 16, 16 and 18 RBIs. He had a total of three homers and 15 RBIs in June through August, when he played 10, 14 and 13 games respectively and had a total of 117 at-bats in three-month span. Had 76 at-bats in April, 63 in May and season-high 98 RBIs (and season-high 18 RBIs) in September.

   Nine of Gattis’ homers came in the seventh inning or later, and he hit .260 with a .567 slugging percentage in 104 at-bats in those situations. He hit .281 (16-for-57) with seven homers in close-and-late situations, basically the seventh inning or later in a tied or one-run game. He had a .388 OBP and .684 slugging percentage in those situations.

  He hit .236 with 12 homers and a .444 slugging percentage in 250 at-bats before the seventh inning.

  • Freeman breakdown: Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman hit over .300 in five of the season’s six months, with a season-low .291 in June. He hit exactly four homers with 17 or more RBIs in each of his four consecutive healthy months before hitting season-high .380 with a season-high six homers in September, as well as season-highs of .449 OBP and .620 slugging percentage for the month.

Game 1 BRAVES LINEUP

  1. Heyward cf
  2. JUpton rf
  3. Freeman 1b
  4. Gattis lf
  5. McCann c
  6. CJohnson 3b
  7. Simmons ss
  8. EJohnson 4
  9. Medlen p

  • Tonight’s matchup: As you know by now, it’s Kris Medlen against Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw.

  Medlen is 9-1 with a 2.04 ERA in his past 11 starts, including 5-0 with an 0.84 ERA in his last six. He won the NL Pitcher of the Month award for the second September in a row. The Los Angeles-area native is 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in eight games (three starts) against the Dodgers, including 1-0 with no earned runs and a .156 opponents’ average allowed in two starts this season.

 Against Medlen, Hanley Ramirez is 5-for-9 with a homer, Skip Schumaker is 4-for-9, Andre Ethier is 4-for-12, Uribe is 0-for-6, and Adrian Gonzalez is 0-for-5 with three strikeouts.

   Kershaw is a lock to win his second Cy Young Award in three years after leading NL starters in ERA (1.83), strikeouts (232 in 236 innings) and WHIP (0.915). The lefty is 10-4 with a 1.57 ERA in past 16 starts, with 114 strikeouts and 19 walks in 114-2/3 innings. He has no decisions and a 2.45 ERA in four starts vs. the Braves, none this season.

 Against Kershaw, Freddie Freeman is 1-for-2 with a homer, Justin Upton is 3-for-29, Chris Johnson is 1-for-12, and Heyward is 0-for-4 with four strikeouts.

On this gorgeous, unseasonably warm October playoff day in Atlanta, let's close with the title cut from Kurt Vile's second terrific album in a row, a song you can hear by clicking here.

“WAKIN ON  A PRETTY DAY” by Kurt Vile

wakin in the dawn of day
i gotta think about what i wanna say
phone ringin off the shelf
i guess he wanted to kill himself
wakin on a pretty day
don't know why i ever go away
it's hard to explain
my love in this daze

you can say i've been most all around
but honey i ain't goin nowhere
don't worry bout a thing
it's only dying
i love along a straight line
nothin always comes to mind
to be frank, im fried
but i don't mind

yeah, yeah
yeah, yeah
yeah, yeah, yeah yeah

been diggin
layin low, low, low
i'm diggin
layin low, low, low
dig, dig in
to these lives that we are livin
livin low
lackadaisically so

risin at the crack of dawn
i gotta think about what wisecrack
i'm gonna drop along the way today
phone ringin off the shelf
i guess somebody got somethin they
really wanna prove to us today

wakin on a pretty day
for any place
no use sayin nothin
to explain it
to my loved ones today

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