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Atlanta Braves Blog / David O'Brien

Posted: 2:43 p.m. Friday, Aug. 16, 2013

Home-field advantage important for Braves 

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Craig Kimbrel broke John Smoltz's team record by converting his 28th consecutive save Wednesday.
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Robyn Hitchcock

By David O'Brien

 

  It surprises me to hear so many folks, mostly radio and TV broadcasters and well-meaning fans, continue to talk about how important it is for the Braves to hurry up and clinch the division title so they can rest Craig Kimbrel and lineup regulars in preparation for the playoffs.

  As if winning home-field advantage really isn’t that important.

  Stop for a moment and look for a second at the home/road disparity, both for the entire season and recently, of the Pirates and Cardinals, two teams from the NL Central that would both be in the postseason if it started today.

  The Pirates are 12-3 with a 2.64 ERA in their past 15 home games, and 6-12 with a 3.62 ERA in their past 18 road games. For the season, they are 41-20 at home – second-best home record in baseball, behind the Braves’ 42-17 – and 30-29 one the road. That’s 21 games over .500 at home, and one over .500 on the road.

  The Cardinals since June 1 are 21-14 with a 3.46 ERA at home, and 13-19 with a 4.29 ERA on the road. They are 3-8 in their past 11 road games, a stretch that began with getting swept in three games at Turner Field.

  Did we mention the Braves have the best home record in the majors? Well, it bears repeating. They are 42-17 at home and 32-30 on the road. Twenty-five games over .500 at home! And two games over .500 on the road.

  The Braves are 34-12 with a 2.65 ERA in their past 46 home games – including 11-2 with a 2.29 ER in their past 13 -- and 20-22 with a 3.78 ERA in their past 42 road games.

   The home-field advantage through the NLCS could be a very important thing, not just something you treat casually, as though it’s not nearly as important as getting extra rest for Kimbrel – when he says he feels great and shows no signs whatsoever of fatigue – and the lineup regulars, most of whom have had DL stints or at least injuries that kept them out of the lineup for a while in the past couple of months anyway.

   Sure, rest a regular here and there, like Fredi Gonzalez did with Simmons and McCann on Wednesday, so the splended shortstop and All-Star catcher could have back-to-back rest days coupled with Thursday’s off day (it didn’t work out that way because Simmons had to enter the game when Tyler Pastornicky got hurt).

  But just rest lineup regulars two or three at a time because that’s what your team might have done in the past when it clinched early? Why does that make sense? If a player has already missed 10, 20, 30 games this season for injuries, why would you rest him now when he’s healthy, if it could make the difference in having home-field advantage against Pirates or Cardinals at home during an NLCS instead of starting and finishing such a series on the road?

  And we haven’t even gotten into the fact that finishing with the best record, ahead of, say, the surging Dodgers, would mean the difference in facing the winner of the Wild Card game in a first-round division series, or facing a division winner, either the Pirates or perhaps those Dodgers. And frankly, no one wants to face the Dodgers, who’ve won 40 of their past 48 games, including a 23-3 record and 2.25 ERA in their past 26 games.

  What if the Braves (current 74-47, best in the NL) were to rest several players at once for a couple of games, lose those games, and finish with the third-best record in the NL behind the Dodgers (currently 70-50) and Pirates (currently 71-49). It’s probably not going to happen, but we’ve certainly seen far stranger things happen in August and September recently.

  What if the Pirates finish with 99 wins, the Dodgers with 98, the Braves with 97. Would those few games where you rested a bunch of regulars and/or didn’t use Kimbrel, and maybe lost a couple of them, really have been worth it? If it meant you had to face the Dodgers in the division series, while the Pirates faced the winner of the Wild Card game, which would currently have the Cardinals playing the Reds?

  And no, I’m not saying you playing every lineup regular the rest of the way, and you use Kimbrel in every close game or every save situation. I’m saying you use your players and your relievers just like you have all season, because none of them are showing signs of being worn out, particularly not Kimbrel and the majors’ best bullpen.

   Kimbrel leads the NL (and ranks second in the majors) with 38 saves, including a Braves-record 28 consecutive saves converted without a blown save (just just broke John Smoltz’s record of 27 on Wednesday when Kimbrel got the last three outs  on seven pitches).

   The only pitcher with more saves this season is Baltimore’s Jim Johnson, who has one more save (39) in nine more appearances and 6-1/3 more innings than Kimbrel, who has pitched 47-1/3 innings in 48 games.

   Among the 16 major league closers with 26 or more saves this season, Kimbrel is tied for 14th in appearances and 11th in innings pitched. He has been used wisely by Gonzalez and pitching coach Roger McDowell, and, as we mentioned, shows no signs at all of being fatigued.

   In fact, he’s only gotten better as the season has progressed. In his past 34 appearances, Kimbrel has produced this jaw-dropping stats: 0.26 ERA and .139 opponents’ average with 16 hits, one run, 14 walks and 53 strikeouts in 34 innings. And again, he’s converted a club-record 28 consecutive saves in that period.

  “I feel great,” he said when I talked to him recently about how he was holding up. “I feel like having the bullpen that we do helps as well. If you think about the four-run ballgames, five-run ballgames that stay four-run ballgames and stay five-run ballgames. That really cuts down on how much I pitch.And then in games where we have ties, they stay tied until we can come back and get the lead. And the starters aren’t going five or six, they starters are going deeper, which helps the bullpen a lot.”

  Lefty setup man Luis Avilan, who missed a little time earlier this season for a hamstring strain, has not allowed an earned run in his past 35 appearances, limiting opponents to a .106 batting average while allowing 11 hits and nine walks with 19 strikeouts in 31-2/3 innings during that period.

  Relievers David Carpenter and Jordan Walden have had similar dominant streaks over the past couple of months, though each gave up a run recently.

   By the way, with the Nationals in town, it’s worth noting that it was at Washington early in the 2011 season when Kimbrel was struggling a bit – he gave up three hits and two runs to take the loss against the Nats on May 11, 2011 – that Gonzalez briefly considered having Jonny Venters take over or share closer duties for a while.

  He ultimately decided against the move, and Kimbrel soared from that point on.

  Kimbrel struck out the side against the Nats the next day – May 12, 2011 – and beginning with that game he has a 0.43 ERA and .113 opponents’ average in his past 21 appearances against Washington, with 41 strikeouts and three walks in 21 innings.

 Braves vs. Nats: The Braves are 14-3 with a 1.63 ERA in their past 17 games against the Nationals, which includes wins in the last four games of the 2012 season. The Braves have held the Nats to three runs or fewer in 15 of those 17 games, including each of the past 12. They’ve held the Nationals to one or no runs in eight of those games.

  The two teams have been going in different directions since mid-May: The Braves are 52-29 with a 3.03 ERA, 374 runs, 92 homers in 81 games since May 17, while the Nats are 37-42 with a 3.90 ERA, 311 runs and 76 homers in 79 games during that same period.

 However, entering tonight’s series opener, the Nats are 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA, .310 batting average and 36 runs in their past six games.

   The Braves are 7-1 in games started by Nats duo Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, who start Saturday and Sunday, respectively, against Mike Minor and Julio Teheran.

 Tonight’s matchup: It’s rookie Alex Wood vs. Nats rookie righty Taylor Jordan, neither of whom has faced a hitter on tonight’s opposing team, at least not in major league game.

  Wood is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and .159 opponents’ average in his past three starts, including 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA and .100 opponents’ average in his past two (four hits, one run, three walks with 10 strikeouts in 12 innings vs. Philly and Miami).

  This is the ninth start for Jordan, who is 1-1 with a 4.88 ERA and .266 opponents’ average in his past four. He has one quality start in that span, and allowed four runs in each of the other three, including 5-1/3 innings and five innings in the past two at Milwaukee and home against the Phillies.

   Worth noting: When leading off innings vs. Jordan, hitters are 17-for-50 (.340) with 17 singles, no walks and six strikeouts.

 Here's one from the great Robyn Hitchcock, which you can hear by clicking here.

“SALLY WAS A LEGEND” by Robyn Hitchcock

Sally was a legend
Sally was a legend in my heart
Sally was a legend
So we had to keep ourselves apart
Push the dream towards me
I can see a flower in the dark
I can understand you
I don't understand the sacred Heart

Sally was a legend
Sure as I can walk around this room
And the truth is evil
It's an evil truth to you-know-whom
I can point to Norway
I can point to Norway with my fist
Sally was a legend
Sure as there are veins beneath her wrist

Why? Why?

Even with her eyes shut
She could see the faces on her lids
She could see my crying
That was long before I ever did
And it's been a lifetime
And with you I celebrate my life
Sally was a legend
Now she's at the table with a knife

Sally was a legend
Sally was a legend yeah
Sally was a legend
Sally was a legend yeah

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David O'Brien

About David O'Brien

David O'Brien has covered the Atlanta Braves for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution since 2002, and previously covered the Marlins for the (Fort Lauderdale) Sun-Sentinel for seven years.

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