Gators’ BCS title-game bid not a sure thing

Hold the phone, Florida fans.

The Gators’ spot in the BCS title game isn’t a sure thing.

Florida, winner of the SEC championship over Alabama, needs the help of voters filling out ballots this morning and also would benefit from a win by Hawaii over Cincinnati in a game that kicked off at 11:30 p.m. Eastern time Saturday.

Confused?

Going into the weekend, Florida was No. 4 in the BCS rankings, one spot behind Texas. According to BCS expert Sam Chi, even with a win over Alabama, the Gators needed to get close enough to Texas in the computer rankings so that their edge over the Longhorns in the human polls (Harris and USA Today) would move them into the No. 2 spot.

Chi, who runs bcsguru.com, said a Hawaii victory would virtually ensure Florida’s spot in the BCS title game, because it would boost the Gators’ strength of schedule. The two teams played in their season-openers’.

Chi estimated that with a Hawaii loss, Florida’s chances would still be about 80 percent. In that scenario, the Gators would need voters to overwhelmingly make them No. 1 over Oklahoma to counteract the computer rankings.

If Florida doesn’t make it, Oklahoma-Texas would likely be the matchup in the BCS championship and Florida would play in the Sugar Bowl. In that case, the Gators, which will likely move up to No. 1 in the AP poll after Saturday’s win over Alabama, could still play for a share of the national title.

Said Chi of the Cincinnati-Hawaii contest, “That game has quite a bit of meaning in the weird world of the BCS.”

The reason for the confusion? That’s easy.

“Mostly because of the computers,” Chi said.

Let’s say Florida and Oklahoma, which was well on its way to beating Missouri as the Journal-Constitution went to print, are in the BCS title game.

Here’s how the other BCS bowls most likely shake out:

In the Rose Bowl, Pac-10 champ USC will play Big Ten champion Penn State. This won’t change, as won’t the Orange Bowl pairing, ACC champ Virginia Tech against Big East champ Cincinnati.

The Sugar Bowl will likely pit Alabama and Utah. The Fiesta Bowl looks like Ohio State and Texas.