Fantasy experts high on Falcons

It’s not too early to start thinking about your fantasy draft. About 22.5 million Americans play fantasy football, according to the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, and many already are doing their homework.

If your 2008 strategy included picking Michael Turner and Roddy White, chances are you contended for your league title as both shattered expectations.

This year there won’t be as much value in picking Falcons, because fantasy experts have never been higher on them.

“Now the secret’s out on Atlanta,” said Dave Richard, senior fantasy writer for CBSSports.com. “They’re going to be a trendy team in drafts this year, and that puts the target on the backs of their big fantasy players.”

Turner is the No. 2-ranked running back on CBSSports.com and ESPN.com — behind Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson. NFL.com puts Turner No. 3, behind Peterson and Chicago’s Matt Forte.

Newly-acquired tight end Tony Gonzalez comes in anywhere from No. 1 to No. 4, while wideout Roddy White is ranked No. 8 by all three sites.

Meanwhile, quarterback Matt Ryan projects as the eighth- or ninth-best fantasy quarterback after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Kicker Jason Elam ranks between No. 4 and No. 6.

Richard describes Turner as a fantasy cornerstone, especially because he always gets the goal-line carries, but says Turner won’t get near the 376 carries he got last year.

“That’s why Jerious Norwood is one of our sleepers this year,” Richard said. “They don’t want to bury Turner’s career.”

Gonzalez will have a productive, but not dominant season, Richard said.

“He was ‘The Man’ in K.C., but you know the Falcons are going to run the ball and Roddy White’s there. The years when he’s worked with a 1,000-yard receiver, his numbers are lower,” said Richard, who ranks Gonzalez behind Dallas Clark, Jason Witten and Antonio Gates. “It’s not a knock on him. It’s about the players around him and the scheme.”

Here’s a look at how key Falcons performed in 2008 and their 2009 projections by CBSSports.com:

QB Matt Ryan

2008: 3,440 passing yards, 16 TDs, 11 INTs.

2009 (projected): 3,547 passing yards, 23 TDs, 12 INTs.

RB Michael Turner

2008: 1,699 rushing yards, 17 TDs.

2009: 1,375 rushing yards, 12 TDs.

WR Roddy White

2008: 88 catches, 1,382 yards, 7 TDs.

2009: 83 catches, 1,219 yards, 8 TDs.

TE Tony Gonzalez

2008 (w/ Chiefs): 96 catches, 1,058 yards, 10 TDs.

2009: 81 catches, 906 yards, 6 TDs.

K Jason Elam

2008: 29/31 on field goals, 42 PATs

2009: 29/31 on field goals, 38 PATs