ajcsportstalk

By R1U

August 14, 2006 10:43 PM | Link to this

They win and keep winning what’s the problem??? Go Braves…everyone seems to be coming together and who can deny that Chipper after the AllStar Break has amassed MVP productive stats

By braves fan

August 14, 2006 10:47 PM | Link to this

everybody get on chipper back and lets go for a ride back into the wildcard

By gotigers72

August 14, 2006 10:48 PM | Link to this

Too late for the playoffs, but wonderful to see one of baseball’s elite players hit 3 homers in a game for the first time. Some have hammered Chipper on these blogs this year, something I don’t understand. He WANTS to be a Brave, has redone his contract so the Braves could spend money to get players, is a career .300 hitter WITH POWER, a former MVP, will end up as one of the greatest switch hitters in the game along with The Mick and Eddie Murray.

What more do you want from this great player? He’s been on the DL a lot in the past 2 years, but do you think he wants that? He is a guy that wants to play every inning of every game. You can’t say that about a lot of major leaguers, although the other Jones is one of those guys too. Just be glad that as a Brave fan you got to see this guy play. You know losing is killing him [and Smoltz]. He has never been on a team with a losing record. That should tell you how good he is.

By dave

August 14, 2006 10:50 PM | Link to this

Who knows if they can make up the gap for the wild card… This was one great game. Chipper obviously has plenty left in the tank, Diaz has earned the left field slot for sure and maybe leadoff eventually, and pitching is looking better. For the first time, I’m optimistic about the future, if not about this year.

By TheSouthernJackAss

August 14, 2006 10:52 PM | Link to this

Aw Hell!…It’s still early!!..Ah Ha Ha Ha Ha Haaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!……..GO YANKS!!!…

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

August 14, 2006 10:57 PM | Link to this

Look, the Braves’ biggest opponents are themselves. If they stop blowing leads and putting the foot to the throat with the bats then the wins will come and they could be back in this. But, it seems every time they take one step forward, they take two steps back and that won’t get it done.

By mike

August 14, 2006 10:59 PM | Link to this

As soon as I think it’s over, I get pulled back in. I know it isn’t likely, but here is an optimists idea: 5 1/2 back now. Get this deficit down to 2-3 games and only behind 2 or 3 teams by the end of August. Then let’s make a September run at this thing.

By Shaun Payne

August 14, 2006 11:28 PM | Link to this

The great thing about this game: Matt Diaz gets some credit for a solid season. You look at his numbers (.351 avg/.375 on-base/.521 slugging) and they’re impressive. And you look at his career numbers (.305/.342/.457) and see this guy could be a pretty solid platoon type player. Get this guy more playing time, Bobby!

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

August 14, 2006 11:29 PM | Link to this

I said all along that if the Braves have this within 4 games going into September and Chipper is healthy this team has a shot and is very dangerous. They still have a shot but it will be very tough with the pitching situation.

By Shaun

August 14, 2006 11:40 PM | Link to this

If the Braves are to have any shot, Tim Hudson has to be the Tim Hudson of 2002, 2003. And Chuck James has to continue what he did tonight. Bobby has to let them know this is the playoffs. Maybe take the Leo Durocher approach from 1951, “Let’s see how close we can get.”

By dfree

August 14, 2006 11:57 PM | Link to this

if we can take a look back a few weeks, it becomes obvious that the braves hot streak before and post all star break was when chipper got hot, he goes out in the first game against the mets and everything has been hit and miss since, he is the captain of this team (atleast the offense) and has proven in the past (1999) that he can carry a team to the postseason, say what u want about andruw, but chip is the most important hitter for the braves, he is far more selective and clutch, when he goes on a roll the whole offense gets going, if he can continue to preform well and the starters somehow get through seven 4 out of 5 nights, this team could be dangerous, their biggest advantage is their expeirence and the fact that NONE of the teams ahead of them are worth a flip. Problem is that they are behind quite a few of those teams. they need to drop this winning series crap, that logic won’t when them anything this late in the season. They need to try and when every game and dont give up on one thinkin ull still win the series. thy need a several 5+ winning streaks and they will be right in it while the teams above them beat up on themselves. o and bring lerew of someone else up ebcause villreal might pitch like sosa only with less gut thurs(homers galore) GO BRAVOS keep hope alive

By jed

August 15, 2006 12:11 AM | Link to this

is thomspon out for good? maybe if lerew or davies can come in & throw. we’ve got to have some pitching. too many injuries. rough luck. but if we had one more decent starter, it wouldnt be impossible at all to win the Wild card

By Jay

August 15, 2006 12:43 AM | Link to this

Schuerholz failed to anticipate the bullpen problems when it should have been obvious. He eventually acted, but too late. I will grant him this one mistake, tempered with over a decade-long run of excellence, but it has cost us a post-season this year. With a decent closer, the Braves could have added circa 15 wins to their current tally. Even circa 10 would have put them firmly in the hunt. That didn’t happen.

The bullpen is finally sured up, but our current starters can’t make up for the lost ground. We’re finished, by any objective standard. Remember what spawned all of our sucess: Pitching, pitching, and pitching. Get back to the source.

By chris

August 15, 2006 01:37 AM | Link to this

I’m tired of a lot of fans giving up on this year. What happened to keeping the faith and believing in your team? They can still get back in this thing if they can get a nice winning streak going again. Anything can happen in baseball. I stick by the Braves no matter what, you can’t just push them away if you are a true fan. DO NOT GIVE UP!!

By Head Coach

August 15, 2006 01:57 AM | Link to this

O sure , the Braves are going to go 45-0 , pigs are going to fly , George Bush and Condi Rice are going to elope to an Island in the south pacific after he resigns , world peace will break out , the arabs and jews after 3,000 years of bloodshed will kiss and make up. Oprah will run for president and win and I’m gonna win the lottery !

By Aaron

August 15, 2006 02:47 AM | Link to this

Ohhh it feels GREAT to see Chipper back!! One day I think the season is shot and the next day I can’t wait until the game starts. Remember 1993 when the Braves were trailing the Giants. We overcame them and they were much better than the chumps ahead of us now. This Braves fan from Boise, Idaho is done doubting. GO BRAVOS!

By John K

August 15, 2006 06:22 AM | Link to this

Let’s all get on Chipper’s back and ride him to the playoffs? If we do that, he’ll pull a muscle, or tweak a hamstring, or get a sore (choose one: foot, thumb, arm, leg). The state of the Braves? Chipper’s getting old & fragile, Wickman becomes unaffordable and leaves in 2006, Andruw departs in 2007. Our rotation next year depends on a near 40 year old John Smoltz, a fragile Mike Hampton, a declining Tim Hudson. We have no long relief. LaRoche still doesn’t hustle all the time. Fancouer still hasn’t seen a pitch he’d take. Aybar is here for five minutes and is already on the DL. And, McDowell is in way over his head.

By Dave knockahomer

August 15, 2006 07:15 AM | Link to this

Loved the win! Chipper was awesome, but poor Diaz! He ties a record; has a great average; can be great platoon guy but I bet JS is already on the phone to try to work a deal. So Diaz, we love your game, but don’t look behind you! A trade, most likely, is in the offering. Hell, JS did it to Betemit and many before him. Diaz may be next. Look at how many ex-Braves are succeeding!!!! Good Lord, don’t let JS trade this guy away!

By Vinny D

August 15, 2006 07:24 AM | Link to this

Looking at the pitchers the nats are throwin out there, a 4 game sweep is quite possible if the bats stay hot. We get hot going into the Marlins series and take 2 out of 3 from them somehow, we should be right back in this thing. However, some young pitcher is gonna have to come out of NO WHERE to get us there.

By THL

August 15, 2006 07:29 AM | Link to this

There is not too much ground to cover and I am not concerned about the number of teams to jump over. The teams at the top of the Wild Card are barely over .500 and almost noone in the Wild Card race has taken the opportunity to put the rest of the field away with a winning streak. If a team, the Braves or otherwise, can put together a hot streak for about 15 (10 or more wins) they would probably be in first place.

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 07:48 AM | Link to this

The difference between Diaz and Betemit: Betemit didn’t have a place to play here and Diaz does. Diaz should basically be the everyday leftfielder. Betemit was always going to be a backup. You trade a backup for what you need, even if it’s a good backup; especially if it’s a good backup because he’s more valuable. And no matter how good Betemit was, he isn’t better than Chipper, Renteria or Giles. Sure you can say he’s better than an injured Chipper, Renteria or Giles but if they are not healthy, Betemit isn’t going to be able to make up their production anyway, especially not Chipper’s.

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 07:50 AM | Link to this

And I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Braves hot streaks and Chipper’s hot streaks have come at the same time. Chipper is the best hitter on this team. And I don’t know if there’s any evidence or how you can measure this, but it seems Chipper’s presence relaxes everyone, particularly the pitching staff.

By Ron Roberts

August 15, 2006 07:56 AM | Link to this

I like the bats, and I like Hudson, Smoltz and James’ performances the last two weeks, but my thinking is, if anybody’s gonna catch the Reds and win the wild card, it’d be the Astros, with their starting rotation. The only reason I’d be pessimistic about the Braves is because our rotation is just decimated with the losses of Horacio Ramirez and John Thomson (well, maybe losing Thomson, the way he was pitching for us, isn’t so bad….). For the Braves to have a legitimate shot, Smoltz, Hudson & James have to keep being what they’ve been the past two weeks and Kyle Davies has to come back (isn’t that s’posed to be soon,now?) and be solid, and that’s no given.

But I like the Durocher approach, too… see how close we can get and let’s build some confidence going into next season, worst-case-scenario.

By Kevin

August 15, 2006 08:04 AM | Link to this

Wait folks braves will do somethin strange cox will go in his shell….chipper will pull his left butt side out be on DL again.this after we sweep nats n win the first 2 at marlins…all sudden in 3rd innin chipper fields ball a sharp pain at rear its his left butt he pulls out for 3 weeks..! end of season

By KC

August 15, 2006 08:17 AM | Link to this

Shaun:

Agreed. Chipper is still one of the top offensive forces in the game. Not a bad 3rd baseman either. For the Braves to have a shot, Chipper must stay healthy the rest of the way.

By Rob

August 15, 2006 08:21 AM | Link to this

No matter what happens with the team this year I’m liking what I’m seeing from Chuck James who has looked much more impressive to me than Davies who everyone in the braves systems says is going to be great but looks like a 3 or 4 starter at best. James has righted himself from those 3 or 4 starts and has looked real good as of late. I think this kid has a good chance to be a nice 2 or 3 starter for years.

By Braves20

August 15, 2006 08:23 AM | Link to this

Ron R - Good thoughts. Let’s all enjoy the ride and see how it plays out. But as Ron said, a 4th REAL starter wouldn’t hurt our chances. Also looking ahead to next year, Diaz unless he falls apart, has played himself into the everyday line-up but that makes us pretty heavy right handed. That lead-off hitter we’re looking for better be a lefty or a switch hitter - Aybar??

By Rob

August 15, 2006 08:24 AM | Link to this

The problem with Francoeur is that he is just a shelfish hitter. That is why he swings at everything because he wants to drive in the runs. If there is a guy on 2nd he swings at everything because he wants the glory instead of walking and letting laroche bat with 2 guys on base. If francoeur went a whole game without swinging 1 time he would be on base 2 or 3 times depending on if he got 4 or 5 ABs because all he gets is sliders down and away in the dirt and he would draw walks.

By KC

August 15, 2006 08:24 AM | Link to this

Ron Roberts:

I fail to see how Houston’s rotation is so much better than the Braves.

If Hudson continues pitching the way he’s capable of pitching… when you look at the top of both rotations, I don’t see how Clemens, Oswalt, and Pettite are any better than Smoltz, Hudson, and James (not with the way Pettitte has looked all year).

By Dave

August 15, 2006 08:52 AM | Link to this

The Braves have the offensive power beyond any doubt. What they don’t have is reliable pitching beyond Smoltz. They cannot make the play offs with only one reliable pitcher.

By bobby

August 15, 2006 09:03 AM | Link to this

It will take a lot more than 2 wins in a row to make the playoffs.

By Ken

August 15, 2006 09:09 AM | Link to this

I have said all along that the Braves go as Chipper goes. When he is in the lineup and hitting well, the Braves usually win. I was at the Ted over the weekend and there seemed to be a different feeling in the air on Sunday when Chipper came back. Although he gets bashed a lot in these blogs and vents, it is quite obvious he is the fan favorite, based on the amount of cheers he receives. The only other player who gets that much reception is Smoltz. They are both players who come around once in a lifetime and I think most people realize that.

By Ron Roberts

August 15, 2006 09:11 AM | Link to this

KC…

…because they have Brandon Backe as a 4th starter and an established bullpen that’s improved vastly since the all-star break… and they’re ahead of us, already. I didn’t say we couldn’t supplant them, I’m just not optimistic about that. They’d be my pick to overtake Cincy if anybody’s going to. Our 4th (and 5th, too, right?) starter is a Richmond call-up, and we’re waiting still for Kyle Davies to come back.

By Rick Nole

August 15, 2006 09:16 AM | Link to this

Not too late still got a month and a half to play. If Chipper stays healthy, this team can make it, the teams ahead in the Wild Card are not that much better. We need to sting together 5-6-7 wins in a row and that would get us within 2 games of the lead. It also helps that we play the Nats and the Fish (boy would 2 sweeps be nice)

Smotz, Huddy, James in a short series could do the trick.

By Rodger

August 15, 2006 09:18 AM | Link to this

Kevin-

Chipper has had a pain in the butt all year-it’s called our “pitching staff?”. Lets hope he can stay healthy the rest of the year. I don’t think he can match the production he’s been giving, but ya know, if we can get some consistent pitching, we can still make a run.

By Brent

August 15, 2006 09:21 AM | Link to this

A couple of things to keep in mind as you consider who we can and who we can’t take over for the Wild Card.

We play the Rockies 4 times, and the Astros 3 times.

Aside from that, we basically play teams in our division and some scrubs (Chicago, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh).

So, it will be easier to catch the likes of Houston and Colorado, but much tougher to catch Cincy, Arizona, etc.

By BLK Jay

August 15, 2006 09:33 AM | Link to this

Just shut up people with all this Chipper comeback talk. He’ll be right back on the DL soon. Hey Andrewthe real “poster boy” of the Braves, keep carrying us. Better luck next year to us real Braves fans. Just keeping it real.

By Jackleg

August 15, 2006 09:40 AM | Link to this

Braves are done- period, end of story. They got hot briefly in July and then returned to mediocrity. This burst too will not last and the real 2006 Braves will show up to finish the season with a wimper.

By hunt

August 15, 2006 09:43 AM | Link to this

braves have a shot to win the wild card,but it is a longshot. c jones must stay healthy, along with everyone else. i think the pitching is the key. will it come through? lets hope so. hunt

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 09:51 AM | Link to this

Chipper better per game than Andruw

True, Chipper has had his injury problems, but if you look at the numbers he is one of the top 10 offensive players per game. Chipper has almost created as many runs in over 30 less games than Andruw.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?split=0&league=mlb&season=2006&seasonType=2&sort=runsCreatedPer27Outs&type=sab&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&state=0&college=0&country=0&hand=a&pos=all

By batboy

August 15, 2006 09:57 AM | Link to this

The fat lady is lost on a train in NY…she’ll find her stop when the Braves play the Mets in post season.

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 10:00 AM | Link to this

Chipper is to Andruw what Manny is to Ortiz. Both are great hitters. Manny is the better hitter, but Ortiz puts up the flashy numbers.

By Sam

August 15, 2006 10:06 AM | Link to this

Hey Guys…remember 1999 when Chipper won the MVP….well the Braves players got on his back and he drove them to the WS. I cannot say it could be done…but it’s going to take all 25 players to win the wildcard berth.

By KC

August 15, 2006 10:09 AM | Link to this

*Ron Roberts, *

Our discussion got me curious, so I compared the Braves and Astros…

THE ROTATIONS:

As long as Hudson doesn’t relapse, the Braves are quite solid 1-3 (Smoltz, Hudson, James). With Pettitte’s struggles, the top of the Astros rotation has nothing on Atlanta’s. Of course, having to start a AAA call-up 2 out of every 5 days is a big handicap, so for the time being I think Houston has the edge here, but that could change. Davies should be back soon, and if he can pitch well in the #4 slot for ATL, that would be a huge lift. And apparently there’s still a little optimism that HoRam could be back next month, we’ll just have to wait and see. It’s also worth noting that the Braves are as good a defensive team as there is in baseball.

THE BULLPENS:

The Astros have 3 relievers with ERA’s under 4.00 (same as the Braves). Springer, Barkowski, and Wheeler. Of the 3, only Wheeler has been impressive. And frankly, if you asked me to pick either Wickman or Lidge for my team right now… I’d go with Wickman. And while Baez’s ERA is slightly over 4.00, his ERA since joining the Braves is under 3.00. All things considered, I don’t see how their bullpen is any better than ours. In fact, right now I would have to give a slight edge to Atlanta in this dept.

THE OFFENSE: Here’s where the similarities between these two teams end. Atlanta’s offense is to Houston’s offense as… well, I can’t think of any clever metaphors, but the Braves’ offense is much better than the Astros’.

When Chipper’s in the lineup, the Braves are the best offensive team in the league… period. The Braves have 5 all-stars in this lineup followed by Francoeur and LaRoche (a combination that will produce 60-HR/200-RBI this year), and the more than capable Diaz/Thorman platoon in the 8th slot. OUCH! Overwhelming advantage to Atlanta in this dept.

CONCLUSION:

If the Astros may have a slight edge in pitching due to all of the Braves’ injuries, but they don’t have nearly enough of an edge in that regard to overcome the huge disparity between these two clubs offensively. And they’re only 1 game ahead of Atlanta in the loss column. I think Atlanta will finish ahead of Houston in the Wild Card standings, wherever that may be.

By Chuck

August 15, 2006 10:12 AM | Link to this

That’s why baseball is such a great game. The Braves win two in a row, and suddenly anything is possible! I remember the old Braves, and we had the same attitude. They would catch some team slumping and sweep a series, and woo hoo! it’s not that far to second place! Of course, it usually didn’t happen - but it did in 1982! There’s always hope, even for a terrible team. I don’t think these guys are terrible by any stretch, and there is still hope of a wild card. Odds are against it, but that’s why they play the games! I’m enjoying the season, although it is painful to watch the mental mistakes by LaRoche, Giles, Franceour, and the pitchers. Bases not covered, not getting under fly balls, swinging at every pitch - and that was just last night! They need to grow up! Chuck

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 10:13 AM | Link to this

KC,

I agree that the Braves are one of the best offensive teams in the league (maybe the best) when Chipper’s in the lineup. But Francouer is not one of the reasons. He’s an out machine. His defense is great and he’s cheap. His on-base deficiencies overshadow his slugging abilities.

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 10:25 AM | Link to this

Chuck,

LaRoche has been good this season. Everyone remembers that one play, but his offense is solid, especially considering what the Braves are paying him.

Giles hasn’t been himself because of injuries, but he’s been underrated. His on-base percentage is still impressive.

Francouer and the pitching hasn’t been good, you are right.

By D.L.

August 15, 2006 10:26 AM | Link to this

Oh come on. The minute Larry opens his eyes he’ll fall right back down to earth. And probably get injured in the process. If the Nats had any worthwile pitching he’d have gone 0 for 5 last night. The Braves will be lucky to be in the playoff hunt in 2 weeks.

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 10:31 AM | Link to this

Chipper’s stats: .339 average/.424 on-base/.592 slugging. Anything wrong with that? I’m not sure what you mean by “fall right back down to earth.” He’s basically doing what he’s been doing his whole career, so what reasons do we have to expect a significant drop-off?

The problem is he’s only played in 83 games and he’s been injured, I’ll give you that.

By KC

August 15, 2006 10:37 AM | Link to this

We gained ground on 5 teams in the Wild Card race last night, passing 2 of them in the standings. We remain 5 games behind Cinci in the loss column, and while we’d like to be closer right now, we’re still very much within striking distance. Especially the teams we’re trying to pass (including the Reds) are all .500 teams, both in record and by nature.

Whether or not we win the Wild Card, I think we will make a real run at it. I my mind, there are only 3 things that can derail Atlanta’s chances of making a run at the WC:

1-Another injury to Chipper or another key player (but especially Chipper).

2-If we can’t win a game not started by Smoltz, Hudson, or James. Hopefully, Kyle Davies will provide a lift to the bottom end of this rotation later this month. And apparently there is still some hope of getting HoRam back before the end of the season.

3-If Huddy has a relapse or if C.James doesn’t continue to come through.

If none of those 3 things happen, with Atlanta’s potent offense, a good rotation (1-3), and a solid bullpen (at least at the back end), the Braves have an excellent shot at the Wild Card. The test starts tonight. We’ve got to win these games that are started by the likes of Cormier and Villareal. Right now, that’s 2 out of every 5 games, so we’ve got to pull out at least half of these games started by these temporary 4th/5th starters to have a chance.

By Ron Roberts

August 15, 2006 10:45 AM | Link to this

KC, dude, that’s all fine and well, the breakdown and all…

…but we’ve had one consistent starter all season - period. Take a poll around the league amongst players or managers…

…would you rather have Clemens, Pettite and Oswalt in a playoff drive or Smoltz, Hudson and Chuck James?

Ask those same big league players and managers….

…would you rather go into a playoff drive with a bullpen of Wheeler, Springer, Qualls and Lidge, or Ken Ray, MaCay McBride, Tyler Yates, Danys Baez and Bob Wickman?

I’m as big a Braves fan as there is, and yet I’d still take their rotation and ‘pen, still. Theirs has proven to be playoff-worthy and ours has not. Hitting-wise, we got ‘em… but the old adage “pitching and defense wins championships” served them well last year (especially against us in the NLDS) and I don’t see where we’ve improved, pitching-wise.

I’m hoping I’m wrong; I just think their rotation is more formidable than ours is. Heck, the Padres might apply, as well, given their tumble into the wild card and the Dodgers resurgance as the NL West leaders.

By KC

August 15, 2006 10:47 AM | Link to this

Shaun:

You and I have been over the Francoeur thing a couple of times, and we just have to agree to disagree as to whether or not Francoeur is a productive player. I think Frenchy belongs in the bigs right now and is already making significant offensive contributions. While I do think on-base% is important, I don’t buy into the “on-base% is the king of all stats” theory for a guy that’s hitting in the bottom part of the lineup.

Having said that, I certainly agree with you that Francoeur is the easiest out in this lineup. If I were managing the Braves, he would be hitting 8th. Everyone in this lineup, including the Diaz/Thorman combination that ordinarily hits 8th, is better at putting the bat on the ball than Frenchy. I say bat him 8th until he develops a little more plate discipline. But alas… BC hasn’t asked me for my opinion. Oh well.

By TJH

August 15, 2006 10:51 AM | Link to this

Well look what the Dodgers did and the Twins. The Braves haven’t had as good of a streak. I see no no reason to throw in the towel.

By KC

August 15, 2006 10:52 AM | Link to this

Ron Roberts:

I will admit that in a post-season series, I would take the Astros rotation over what the Braves have healthy. With Hudson’s inconsistency this year, I would have a little more confidence in Oswalt in a big-game start. And you have to take Pettitte’s experience into account when you compare him to James. But in the regular season, even down the stretch… I don’t think the top of Houston’s rotation has anything on Atlanta’ right now. Not with Hudson and James both pitching extremely well.

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 10:57 AM | Link to this

KC,

Yeah, there is no “king of all stats.” Getting on-base/avoiding outs are important qualities of a big leaguer and Francouer is an out machine. The numbers seem to prove that. I do agree that he’s not the worst player/hitter in the league, but the Braves would be better off with an average hitter. That said, he is cheap and he does the job defensively. Also, I think he’s going to be fine eventually.

By Ron Roberts

August 15, 2006 10:59 AM | Link to this

KC,

You mean…

Not with Hudson and James both pitching extremely well the past two weeks……

right?

I agree… but it’s only a two-week stretch we’re hanging on,here.

Chuck James has been good, decent, bad, and back to decent…is that permanent? I hope so, but can’t say with confidence it will be…

Hudson’s been bad, decent, bad, mediocre and now decent-to-good…is that permanent? I hope so,but can’t say with confidence it will be…

And by the way, Kyle Davies has pitched 7 innings in three games for Mississippi in his rehab assignment… 7 innings, 5 earned runs. 6.43 ERA.

I’m doing a lot of hoping. I really am.

By KC

August 15, 2006 10:59 AM | Link to this

Ron Roberts: I forgot to mention…

Again, we’re having a debate about which pitching staff is better, but there is absolutely no room for debate about the offensive disparity between these two teams. Dude they play on a little league field, and still can’t score runs. That will be the undoing of Houston… the inability to give their pitching any run support.

In the post-season, I think pitching is usually a bigger factor, but in the regular season, offense can still win or lose you a lot of ball games.

By Not-A-Blogger

August 15, 2006 11:03 AM | Link to this

Who wants to bet Bobby sits Diaz tonight?

By KC

August 15, 2006 11:27 AM | Link to this

Ron Roberts: “Now with Hudson and James both pitching extremely well the past two weeks… right?” Wrong.

Tim Hudson had 7 lousy weeks VS. 7 great years. Before he went into that tailspin, we was coming off a 4-5 stretch in which he posted an ERA of under 3.00, and was getting his ERA back into that familiar 3.00-3.50 territory that Hudson has been in most of his career. Then the wheels came off. Why? Who the hell knows. Actually, it appears to have been a mechanical thing, and he and McDowell have been working on it… so maybe they’ve got if figured out. But assuming he’s put that behind him, once again, we’re talking about 7 bad weeks VS. 7 bad years. Hudson hasn’t even been bad all season as Pettitte has… he was good before that 7 week stretch, and he’s been very good in has past two starts.

As to Chuck James… So far as a big leaguer, there has only been one start (against the Mets) in which he didn’t keep his team close and give them a chance to win. If you take that one bad start against the NY out of the equation, he would be 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA. With the exception of that one start, he’s been very solid for Atlanta, whether he was pitching out of the bullpen or starting.

By Mike

August 15, 2006 11:28 AM | Link to this

too little, too late

By noel malone

August 15, 2006 11:28 AM | Link to this

Let’s see if the Braves can win 18 of their next 20, then let’s talk about the playoffs. Yes its great to see Chipper doing so good, but we have to remember that he has missed a significant number of games this year and the last two, and its likely that he’s done, in spite of this current flare-up.

Furcal and Betemit on the left side of the infield of the surging Dodgers. Wow!! What must JS be thinking?

By KC

August 15, 2006 11:42 AM | Link to this

neol malone:

Dude… Chipper’s “done”??? What in the $#%#^$# are you talking about???

And what planet are you living on in which it would take winning 18 of 20 games to even talk about the post-season, when all the teams we’re chasing are .500 ball clubs?

If the current winning percentages of the teams ahead of us hold, and we won 18 of 20 games… we would lead the Reds in the Wild Card Standings by 3 games. Forget about 18 or 20. That’s not going to happen with all of our injuries. But if we can win 8 of 10, we’ll likely pass all but a team or two in the standings, and will find ourselves only a game or 2 out of the WC lead.

And what was JS thinking?

JS was thinking first of all that it would be nuts to give Furcal 13 million a season, especially for a team with an 80 mill payroll, and he’d be right. He’s also probably thinking that the Braves have a better shortstop now than they had before Furcal left, and for considerably less than half of what Furcal now makes… and again, he’d be right.

As to the Betemit trade, he was thinking that we desperately needed more bullpen help. He was certainly right about that. The Braves scouting staff told him that Aybar has every bit as much upside as Betemit. JS thinks that he has one of the best and most highly respected scouting staffs in baseball, and again… he’s correct. Hope that answers your questions.

By NLCHAMPS

August 15, 2006 12:05 PM | Link to this

A couple of wins and there goes that Wild Card talk. Poor poor brave fans.

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 12:13 PM | Link to this

Betemit Trade

Betemit had no where to play. He’s not a better player than Chipper, Renteria or Giles. The Braves had a need and they filled it using him. But they also get a player with a better track record than Betemit at the same points in their pro careers.

By Pierre

August 15, 2006 12:20 PM | Link to this

Keep Diaz in the lineup, maybe start platooning the “golden boy” Francoeur with Thorman or Langerhans. 10 hits in a row is quite a feat. You have to make him (Diaz)an everyday player from here on out. You get no production when Francoeur strikes out - which happens often. Also, did anyone see that MLB.com left off Dale Murphy for the Braves’ list of hometown heroes? Am I missing something here?

By Braves20

August 15, 2006 12:30 PM | Link to this

Great stuff as always. As to the hometown hero, my vote went to the Hammer but for Murph to not be on the ballot is as bad as some of the stiffs that have made the HOF while he does not. Character may not count for the HOF but it sure should in Hometown Heros. Shaun - good point about WB - serviceable player but we have a steller infeld and not place for him to play. There are several sites (Sporting News among them) that feel JS picked the Dodgers pocket on that deal.

By Dave from Chattanooga

August 15, 2006 12:30 PM | Link to this

To have any reasonable chance at postseason play I must not see …

1) Tyler Yates 2) any former Diamondback’s reliever 3) Chris Reitsma (blessing he’s gone - he couldn’t get out 5-6 guys I play softball with) 4) the “Huddy” that we’ve seen very outing this year except the last. GO BRAVES!

By KC

August 15, 2006 01:05 PM | Link to this

NLCHAMPS:

You need to change your screen name to NLEASTCHAMPS until you can prove something in October. With the starting pitching you have… good luck. If you can get past the Dodgers and whoever else you’ll have to beat to go to the World Series… then you can change your name back to NLCHAMPS. But for now, you’re NIEASTCHAMP and nothing more buddy.

And if you guys need to borrow that particular banner, just let us know. We’ve got 14 of em’.

By Black Braves Fan

August 15, 2006 01:09 PM | Link to this

Shaun come on man stop making excuses for the below average team. Frenchy, Laroche, whoevr is in left field cannot get you to the playoffs. People keep putting their faithe in the “Great White Hope” and Chipper let’s you down everytime. Someone answer this question for me, What does JS have against African American players. He continues to run away from them and he’d rather pull up another great white hope from AAA then to sign one. Can someone please answer that question???

By Bill

August 15, 2006 01:26 PM | Link to this

BBF,

You are one sad, pathetic loser. Anyone who gets their kicks by flaming a blog is beyond help. Hopefully, when school starts, you’re computer time will be drastically cut.

C-ya!

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 01:49 PM | Link to this

Techinically all the Braves players are African American. Fossil evidence seems to suggest the first modern humans lived in Africa, therefore all of our ancestors are African. All Americans could be considered African Americans.

By Lew

August 15, 2006 02:19 PM | Link to this

Shaun with a U-You say the Braves would be better off with an average hitter instead of Francoeur? By an average hitter do you mean someone hitting .250 WITHOUT 80+ RBI and 22HR? Dude you need to get a grip here. We have gone over this OBP crap time and again. Getting on base doesn’t do you a damn bit of good if no one knocks you in! Francoeur does this. In what amounts to a full season, he has hit over 30HR and knocked in over 100. I don’t care if he hits .225 as long as he knocks in runs. Besides the kid is 22 years old. Give him a flipping break! For all of you Chipper bashers. In his last 130 games, Chipper has hit over .325 with 30HR and 102 RBI. I would rather have him for 125 games than not have him at all. He has put up superstar numbers. As far as the injuries, what do you want. He about killed himself on lousy turf at SF and even Pujols had a strained oblique and missed time. I haven’t heard any Cardinal fan talking aboput getting rid of him because of injuries. Our problem is now and has been all season-THE PITCHING.

By Twiga

August 15, 2006 02:21 PM | Link to this

I hate to rain on your love fest, but there is an aspect of this that no-one is either thinking or not realising.

The Braves are 7th in the Wild Card Race. There are three teams .5 game behind them. There is a very realistic chance that the Braves could have two or three more teams ahead of them after tonights game, putting them at 10th.

“So what?” you all say. “We just have to get on a hot streak.” It would have to be an unbelivable hot streak…like about 45-0. Look at it from this perspective.

There are 16 teams in the NL. Three of them (Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers) are out of the Wild Care race because they are the division leaders. Two of them (Pittsburg and Chicago) are so far out of it, they aren’t even considered. If you want to make things better for your point of view, you can count Washington in that group of too far back to make it as well. So that’s six teams out of the race. 16 - 6 = 10. Do you see the problem?

For every win, there is a loss (I know, bear with me, please). So for the Braves to move past 6 teams (I’ll work with current stats) six teams have to lose. Best case scenario is the six out of it play the six in front of the Braves and sweep them. But…as three are division leaders and September baseball tends to focus on the division…the odds of that happening are nil.

And what happens if the six out of it play each other? That leaves 10 teams fighting for the wild card beating each other. Meaning that it’s guarenteed whilst one team moves up, another moves down. And so on. So let’s say that Houston plays Cincy and wins, as do the Braves. Well, the Braves gain on the Reds, but stay put with the Astros…and that happens with four other teams!

Do you see the mathematical problem with this? Sure, they aren’t eliminated yet, but the odds are almost infinitely stacked against them. They really would have to practically go undefeated the rest of the way to make it.

Sorry guys.

By ATLIEN

August 15, 2006 02:28 PM | Link to this

Let’s Get Something Straight CHIPPER JONES = Disabled List what don’t you people understand. The last 130 game Lew wants to talk about Chipper, the man can’t even play for30 straight game so save that garbage coming from your PIE HOLE Lew!!!!!!!

By Lew

August 15, 2006 02:31 PM | Link to this

ATLIEN-You are of course, entitled to your opinion no matter how much you may be wrong. But you, my friend, may go perform a a somewhat perverse sexual act on yourself with a flipping 2x4.

By sammy miller

August 15, 2006 02:38 PM | Link to this

HEY BBF GET A LIFE AND TAKE YOUR RACIST REMARKS ABOUT JS AND SHOVE THEM WHERE THE SUN DON’T SHINE!!! EVER THOUGHT THE SAME COULD BE SAID ABOUT THE NBA OR THE HAWKS OR ARE YOU JUST THAT CLOSED MINDED AND THINK EVERYONE OWES YOU SOMETHING BBF! DO SOMETHING POSITIVE TODAY, MAYBE OPEN YOUR EYES AND SEE WHAT YEAR WE ARE LIVING IN!

By Bill

August 15, 2006 02:56 PM | Link to this

Twiga —

Your math is horrible. The odds are not infinitely stacked against them. Suppose we drop three teams as division winners along with the Cubs, Pirates, and Nats as too far out to win it. As you say, that leaves 10 teams. While on any given day, the Braves will not pick up ground on all of the other 10 teams, think about what can happen over a 10 game stretch. Suppose the Braves go 7-3 and the other teams all go 5-5 — the Braves would pick up 2 games on each of the other teams.

Suppose at the beginning of the season, we lined up the 10 teams competing for the wild card and asked the question: after 45 games, what do you think the standings will look like? What would be the chances that the Braves would lead the pack? What are the chances that they would be 6 games ahead of the Reds?

Would it take 45-0? Let’s see…45-0 would translate to winning 100 games for the season. That would blow the doors off the wild card. My guess on what it would take is 30-15 to get to 85 wins.

I look at it like a horse race that has just hit the 3/4 post — there is 1/4 of the race left and the horses are bunched fairly tightly. The Braves are near the back of the pack but it is not impossible for them to make a move by finishing strongly. Even if the horses were starting even, it is a low odds bet to pick one horse against the rest of the field — so the Braves chances aren’t great but it is not nearly as grim as you say.

That said, I’m not sure the Braves have the right horses in their starting rotation to make a move.

Getting Chipper back is a big boost. I expect that the two weeks off to help his oblique also let him rest his foot so it probably helped with the nagging injury as well. As for his first stint on the DL this year, get real folks — the turf in SF was horrible. They should not have been playing on that field. I really don’t think that injury was age-related — just bad luck. The age-related & chronic problem is the stuff that started to flare up in early July with his feet.

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 02:58 PM | Link to this

Lew,

RBI don’t make you a great hitter. The reason Francouer has so many RBI is because he’s been hitting behind Chipper, Andruw and McCann, three guys that are on base a lot, and he’s in the lineup a lot. A lot of RBI means you may be a great hitter, but it doesn’t necessarily make you a great hitter.

You can be a below average hitter and still drive in over 100 runs (See the book Baseball Between the Numbers). And below is a link to an article about the problems with stats like RBI. And you’ll find that it makes sense; it’s not written by some wacko(s).

And, I’ve said it before, I’m not knocking Francouer. He’s exciting and I think he’ll be a great player. But he just needs to hone certain parts of his game.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562

By TrueBlueBravesFan

August 15, 2006 02:59 PM | Link to this

Never tell me the odds

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 03:03 PM | Link to this

Here’s something from that article by Dayn Perry at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562

OBP is how often a player reached base via hit, walk or hit by pitch; among traditional offensive statistics, it’s the most important. The higher a player’s OBP, the less often he’s costing his team an out at the plate. Viewed another way, 1-OBP = out %. In other words, OBP subtracted from the number 1 will yield the percentage of how often a hitter comes up to bat and uses up one of his team’s 27 outs for that game. A player can play all season, rack up impressive counting stats and still be using up far too many outs.

By Ron Roberts

August 15, 2006 03:11 PM | Link to this

KC…

I love your optimism. And that’s just it, man… your posts are nothing but optimistic, man.

Sure, it’d be nice to have the prior seven years of Tim Hudson pitch the rest of the way for us, but, uh, buddy, it’d be nice (for the Giants) to have Barry Bonds hitting the way he has the last seven years, too, ya know? It’s all about the now not the then.

I’m not saying Huddy won’t be good the rest of the season, but I think it’s fairly unlikely that he, Smoltz, Chuck James and (insert Richmond callups for #4 and #5) are going to band together to outduel some of the better pitching staffs ahead of us in the wildcard. Do I want it to happen? Yes. Can it happen? Yes. Do I think it will happen, based on what’s already occurred the first, what, 115 games of the 162 game season? No.

By the way, since the all-star break, Houston’s team ERA is 3.81 (third in the NL behind, get this, COLORADO and the Dodgers. The Braves? Are ya sitting down, folks?

5.10. Dead last in the NL.

That’s including the last few starts Huddy and Chuck’s thrown, plus Smoltz’s consistency and our better bullpen.

The month of August? Astros (3.29 ERA) is again third, behind the Dodgers and Rockies, and the Braves (4.34 ERA) are a mere 10th out of 16 teams.

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 03:12 PM | Link to this

You have to stretch the truth to be convinced Francouer is a good hitter. If you want to believe that RBI is a good indicator of a hitter’s ability, you are wrong. There’s no other way to put it. RBI are largely a product of how often the hitters in front of a player get on base, how often a player is in the lineup, where he bats in the lineup, etc. And if you think about it with an open mind, it’s easy to see. Judging a player soley by RBI is like judging a pitcher soley by wins and losses. Do we want to judge John Smoltz soley on the basis of his record this year? I don’t think we do.

By Jim

August 15, 2006 03:12 PM | Link to this

The “Hometown hero” designation becomes a little bit confusing when the team has had 3 different hometowns over the past 60 years, but my list would be: 1. Aaron 2. Spahn 3. Maddux 4. Chipper 5. pick one — Matthews, A. Jones, Smoltz, Glavine, Niekro

Honorable Mention: Murphy, Lew Burdett

By KC

August 15, 2006 04:16 PM | Link to this

Ron Roberts:

Ya know what… you’re absolutely right Ron! How could I have been such an idiot?! Tim Hudson, prior to his last 2 starts, sucked for so long (7 weeks), that it is only reasonable to conclude that he’s washed up. Given the fact that his stuff hasn’t changed a bit, and that it was only his location that was off during his struggles… the boundless optimist in me wants to believe that maybe there was a mechanical flaw that could be, or may have already been, corrected. And I was encouraged by the fact that Hudson is 30 years old (an age when most players are in their prime), that he’s been one of the best pitchers in the game over the last 7 years, and that he pitched quite well both before and after that bad 7 week stretch. I was encouraged by those factors, that is… until you set me straight.

How could I have been so blind? Why would the last 7 years, the first couple months of this season, or the last couple of starts have any bearing??? After all, Barry Bonds at the age of 43 (with years of steroid induced cartilage damage) has failed to regain his former glory… so the same thing must be happening to Tim Hudson… 13 years early. How could I not have seen that?! If only I weren’t such a silly optimist devoid of all logic or the ability to see clearly, I would have realized this earlier. After 7 bad weeks at the age of 30 (the last 2 starts probably being nothing more than a fluke), it’s only reasonable to assume that he’s just hit a wall in his career, and that he will never be the same kind of pitcher ever again. I’m glad you set me straight on that Ron. Thank you for pulling me out of my delusional state. Someone should probably take Hudson out behind the Braves clubhouse and shoot him. Let’s not be fooled by his last two lucky outings… he’s obviously washed up. What more could he have to live for?

Ron, why do you accuse me of wearing rose colored glasses when all you can do is rave about a team that can’t score a run, even in that blasted popcorn machine they call a baseball field, to save their lives? Why is it optimism to point out the encouraging signs coming from this Braves team, while it’s logical realism to ignore all the glaring flaws on that Houston team and predict good things from them? I don’t get it. The Astros were 3 games under .500 on July 1st. But since they’ve been getting all this great pitching, they’re now… 4 games under .500. What does that tell you about the Astros? And that’s after trading for another big bat in Aubrey Huff (who’s hit .250 since joining the Astros). Their pitching just isn’t quite good enough to overcome their inability to score runs.

You can quote statistics and ERA’s since the all-star break, since June, or since the beginning of the season. I am looking at both teams right here and now… the way both pitching staffs are throwing the ball, the way both offenses are hitting the ball, and the way both defenses are catching the ball. Right now… with Chipper healthy and Hudson/James pitching quite well… I think the Braves are substantially better team. Now… if Hudson and James don’t continue to pitch well, or if we can’t find a way to win at least more than half of the games started by the bottom of the rotation, or if Chipper gets hurt again… we’re probably sunk.

Anyway, I see some very encouraging things going on with this team right now… 3 quality starters that are on top of their games right now, a solid bullpen (as least at the back end), and the most potent offense in the league. Forgive me for being encouraged.

By Ron Roberts

August 15, 2006 04:30 PM | Link to this

Hey KC…

Did I type condescendingly to you? Check yourself, man.

I never said Tim Hudson was (your words) “washed up.” I never “raved” about the Astros, either. I merely made a personal observation that I think the Astros are the most dangerous of all the wild-card wannabees. You’ve decided to argue that the Braves are, and all I’ve done is continue the debate (in a civil and non-condescending manner, mind you…).

If your feelings get hurt when people don’t see it your way, I can’t help that.

By your way of thinking, we should overlook the most of Tim Hudson’s performance this season because of his prior seven seasons. By those measures, then, we should also overlook Andy Pettite’s performane this season, as well, correct?

Oh, but wait… that wouldn’t work for your argument, then, would it?

How’s that for condescending? Let me know when you can blog civilly, and you can continue to discuss things with me then.

By Ron Roberts

August 15, 2006 04:31 PM | Link to this

…and by the way, the Braves have the third most potent offense in the National League… for the season and for the month of August, thus far.

By Lew

August 15, 2006 04:39 PM | Link to this

Shaun with a U-I didn’t say RBI makes a good hitter, but just what do you think they pay Francouer to do? Set the table, or drive in the runs? Sure he needs to become selective-there’s no doubt whatsoever about that. My God, if the kid could ever get ahead in the count and take advantage of the pitches he would then see-well we know what the upside would be. However, why do you think the coaching staff hasn’t come down hard on him? Is it because BC is just a big old father figure? Get real-It’s because the kid has driven in all of those runs. You can discuss whatever baseball theories or philosophies that you want to (and honestly, some of what you point out about the theories are quite interesting), but the bottom line is that as long as Jeff keeps hitting HR’s and knocking in those guys with the high OBP, you won’t see the Barves p**s and moan about it.

By Rob

August 15, 2006 04:41 PM | Link to this

A true Braves fan carries hope until the day after the team is mathematically elimated…

By Ron Roberts

August 15, 2006 04:51 PM | Link to this

And I’m as hopeful as the next guy…

…I hope the Hudson of the last two starts is the Hudson we get the rest of the way out and not the Hudson of June & July. I hope Chuck James has reverted to form after a few shaky starts in July (8.53 ERA that month). I hope Smoltz can hang in there (we’re fortunate to have not worn him out, yet…he’s a horse)… I hope Chipper Jones doesn’t strain the quad he’ll tell you he still feels when he swings. I hope Marcus Giles doesn’t go back into his lead-off spot slump.

It’s easy to be the rah-rah fan and cafeteria-pick the better moments of a season or a player’s career and say “if we get all of that the rest of the way, we’re making the playoffs!”

Every team’s roster (except Pittsburgh and Kansas City, I s’pose) could provide an avid fan with that sort of supposition.

The reality is, there’s a lot of “hoping” that needs to come to fruition to make the Braves a wild card contender.

By KC

August 15, 2006 04:53 PM | Link to this

Ron Roberts:

First of all… sorry for the condescending tone, but when you say something like “your posts are nothing but optimism”, that kind of rubs me the wrong way. I hear that as essentially saying “you’re being optimistic, and not realistic like I am”. You don’t have the corner on rational thought. Just because I disagree with you in leaning toward the positive here, doesn’t mean my posts are nothing but optimism. Maybe that’s not the angle you were coming from, but that’s the way it hit me. And no, my feelings don’t get hurt anytime someone disagrees with me… unless they say something blasphemous like “Billy Joel sucks.” lol

Let me answer to a couple of your points…

“By your way of thinking, we should overlook the most of Tim Hudson’s performance this season because of his prior seven seasons. By those measures, then, we should also overlook Andy Pettite’s performance this season, as well, correct?”

Hey if Andy’s got it turned around, I wouldn’t want to be guilty of dismissing his potential impact. I saw that his last start was a very good one. I guess the difference between Hudson and Pettitte the way I see it is that Pettitte has sprinkled good starts like his last one in all throughout the season only to tank again, if not in his next start, then in the following one. Hudson pitched quite well, then went into that historic tailspin, and now has thrown the ball quite well in his last couple of outings. With that in mind, Hudson’s last two outings give me a little more confidence in Hudson than I would have in Pettitte after his last start. But in both cases, there’s still a ways to go for either of them to be restored to ACE status in anyone’s eyes.

“…and by the way, the Braves have the third most potent offense in the National League… for the season and for the month of August, thus far.”

I have been saying all along that Chipper is the key to everything. If you were measure NL offenses from the beginning of July and remove the dates Chipper was on the DL from the equation… I think you would find Atlanta at the top of the league in nearly every major offensive category over that stretch. Again, Chipper is the key. He’s not the only big stick in this lineup… it’s loaded top to bottom, but his the linchpin that makes it all click.

By KC

August 15, 2006 05:04 PM | Link to this

Ron Roberts:

I can’t remember if I posted this to you earlier, or someone else… forgive me if I’m repeating myself, but:

Since his call up to ATL, Chuck James has only failed to keep his team close and give the Braves a chance to win one time (against the Mets). If you take that one bad start out of the equation, he would be 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA. I think you might be guilty of exaggeration through statistics by choosing that July ERA that was mostly skewed by that one ghastly outing.

And dude… you seem to have plenty of hope when it comes to the Astros. Where are those positive vibes when it comes to pulling for your team? Unless that Astros are your team.

And what exactly is wrong with a fan thinking about scenarios that would carry their team to the playoffs. How enjoyable is it to sit in front of a monitor and post stuff like “the Braves suck… might as well cash it in. There’s no hope.” What’s the point???

By Ron Roberts

August 15, 2006 05:11 PM | Link to this

In any event, here we are in the stretch run for a wild card spot, and we’re 5.5 games back. And for my money, the rotation the Astros have is faring far better this month, even head-to-head with the quality starts (and they are good starts) by Hudson and James, along with Smoltz.

And the Astros’ are relying on a formula that got the Braves to the playoffs many times…. pitching defense, timely (if not boastful) hitting.

I mean, look at the Asrtos’ August rotation stats…

Roger Clemens….2-0 2.77 ERA

Andy Pettitte….2-1 2.66 ERA

Roy Oswalt…….1-1 3.32 ERA

Brandon Backe….2-1 2.29 ERA

The Braves have three starters who have comparable numbers, but not four. That’s a big difference, because it affects 20 to 25% of your games the rest of the way… that’s about 11-12 games.

Yeah, the Astros’ offense is bad; no doubt about it, but we have to have the Hudson of the last 3 starts and not the Hudson of June & July, and keep Smoltz going, and have Chuck James be what he’s been minus the whole month of July… and the bullpen has to improve even more still…

…and Chipper has to stay healthy and Giles not go in a slump (since he’s back at leadoff), et al.

I’m with ya, man… hopeful. Just not expectant.

By Ron Roberts

August 15, 2006 05:15 PM | Link to this

Dude, there’s nothing wrong with a fan being hopeful, but I don’t find there to be anything wrong w/feeling that another time might have an upper hand, either.

And I’m not “hopeful” in any way for the Astros to do well down the stretch; but you put Clemens, Oswalt, Pettitte, and Backe’s pedigree against Smoltz, Hudson, Chuck James and (insert fourth starter here), and it’s a no-brainer who’s better-armed, rotation-wise.

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 05:42 PM | Link to this

Lew,

They pay Francouer to create runs and prevent runs (or they should). A player with a .280 on-base percentage, a player that costs his team outs like Francouer doesn’t create as many runs as a hitter with a league average on-base percentage. All those RBI tell us about Francouer is that he hits in a good lineup and is in the lineup virtually every day. If a player like Magglio Ordonez was in the Braves’ lineup, he would have well over 100 RBI. The Braves should p*ss and moan a little, but the reason they probably aren’t too concerned is because Francouer is very young and they are not paying him much at all, relative to other major league rightfielders. Maybe I’m wrong and they actually believe that Francouer is one of the top rightfielders in the game, but I hope not.

Raul Ibanez has more RBI than Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome. Does anyone think Ibanez is a better hitter than any of these guys? Ibanez ranks 8th in the major leagues (yes, the Major Leagues) in RBI. Ibanez is a fine player, but if you think Ibanez is anything close to the 8th best hitter in baseball, you are insane. You would think if RBI was close to a good measure of player performance, Ibanez wouldn’t rank in the top 10.

The reason a lot of the best hitters drive in a lot of runs is because the best hitters usually hit in the middle of their lineups all season long. They get a lot of at-bats usually behind the guys on their team that get on base the most. But sometimes bad hitters drive in a lot of runs for that same reason.

Costing your team outs = costing your team runs. It’s impossible to score runs by making outs, that’s why outs are to be avoided at all cost. Why is it so hard to understand that on-base percentage is the most important accessible stat (not the only stat that matters, but the most important single accessible stat)? Think about it from a defensive perspective. On defense you are trying to make outs because outs are the only way to prevent the other team from scoring. The quicker you get three outs the less chance the other team has to score. You retire the side in order, the team has no chance to score. So, doesn’t if follow that on offense an essential part of scoring runs is avoiding outs? And what is on-base percentage but a percentage of outs avoided?

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 05:48 PM | Link to this

I think a major problem is people see on-base percentage merely as the ability to get on base. But the most important aspect of on-base percentage is that it is an out-avoiding percentage. And the teams that avoid outs the longest are the teams that are going to score the most runs. The teams that have scored the most runs this year are the teams that send up the most batters between outs. PA/Out.

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 05:50 PM | Link to this

Avoiding outs and getting on-base are necessarily equal.

By Shaun

August 15, 2006 05:55 PM | Link to this

Well, I have to take back something. Outs aren’t always to be avoided. If you have a runner on second in the bottom of the ninth with no outs, you increase your chances to score a run by bunting a runner over. But in that case, one run is more important that one run in the first inning of a game.

By Max

August 15, 2006 07:01 PM | Link to this

Let’s go Braves!!!!

By Max

August 15, 2006 07:14 PM | Link to this

Let’s go Lance let’s make it 3 in a row!!!

By Bewildered Braves Fan

August 15, 2006 08:59 PM | Link to this

First let me say that I like Bobby Cox and am not a Cox basher but I am totally confused with tonights lineup. This is suppose to be the big push and we don’t have Edgar and Andrew in the lineup! I hope that I missed something because the pregame guys said that Andrew had “tweeked” a knee and was held out as a precaution and Edgar just needed a rest.

If I am to believe what the team has been saying and that they want to make a big push NOW, then the actions don’t jive with the banter. If it is crunch time, stars play even if they are tired or banged up.

This was certainly not the night to take the day off! You are starting a pitcher that should be in the minor leagues and the offense should need all the help it can get.

I hope that the pregame announcers were just downplaying why the two major producers were riding the pine tonight. If Cox decided not to play them tonight for the announced reasons then I am just bewildered.

Maybe they are just playing out the string and looking to next year. I had not quite yet but now I am not so sure about the guys that should be out there when the team needs them.

By Dave from Chattanooga

August 15, 2006 09:05 PM | Link to this

All stats, theory and conjecture aside … LET’S GO BRAVES !!!!

By Greg

August 15, 2006 10:32 PM | Link to this

I would like the Braves rebound from this 5-0 loss to the Nationals and go on a tear. The Braves are overdue for a tear. I would love to see a 10 game winning streak and pass 5 teams and be at least 2nd in the WC or have the lead in the WC by late August early September. Tim Hudson is going to have to step it up. Smoltz needs to stay consistent, which he has, and the bullpen needs to produce a consistent effort game in and game out. I would like to see Renteria break out of a slump and have Giles get hot again and finish at an .280-.290 batting average. If Giles and Renteria get hot at the same time, Andruw, Chipper (if he stays healthy) will each produce 100 RBIS. McCann needs to play more, Francouer is going have to stop swing at everything I believe that he is another Andruw Jones offensively: a .265-.275 hitter with 30-35 homers on average and a 95-100 RBI man with 120-130 K’s a year. Give Francouer more time to mature and he’ll learn to take pitches and walk more and probably have an on base precentage of .320-.330 (ala Terry Pendleton, but Pendleton didn’t strike out a lot, he produced heck of a lot of hits especially clutch hits.) I see Francouer when he matures to walk anywhere from 40-50 times a year with 130 Ks on average. I see Frenchy winning some gold gloves in right field! And the last thing, where is Kelly Johnson and Kyle Davies?????????????