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DEL.ICIO.USTony Barnhart’s daily picks
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
After Tony’s update, log your own opinion in our daily blog.
WHO’S IN
• Penn (20-8), Ivy League; Belmont (21-9), Atlantic Sun; Winthrop (24-4), Big South; Eastern Kentucky (21-11), Ohio Valley; Davidson (29-4), Southern; Creighton (22-10) Missouri Valley.
TOP 65 BY SEEDS
1: UCLA, Kansas, Ohio State, Florida
2: Texas A&M, North Carolina, Georgetown, Wisconsin
3: Memphis, Maryland, Tennessee, Pittsburgh
4: Southern Illinois, Washington State, Nevada, Texas
5: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Butler, UNLV
6: Duke, Arizona, Virginia, Notre Dame
7: Marquette, Boston College, Indiana, Michigan State
8: Creighton*, Kentucky, Villanova, Vanderbilt
9: Air Force, Oregon, Georgia Tech, BYU
10: Xavier, Syracuse, Southern Cal, Texas Tech
11: Purdue, Clemson, Old Dominion, Arkansas
12: VCU, Winthrop, Davidson*, Gonzaga
13: Missouri State, Drexel, Holy Cross, Long Beach State
14: Toledo, Vermont, Oral Roberts, Sam Houston
15: Western Kentucky, Penn, Siena, Eastern Kentucky
16: Delaware State, Belmont*, Weber State, Mississippi Valley, Central Connecticut
• Play-in game: Jackson State vs. Central Connecticut
*Have received automatic bid.
TOP 65 BY CONFERENCE
(Note: Clemson made our projected field by winning at Virginia Tech. Stanford of the Pac-10 dropped out. Arkansas, which won at Vanderbilt, replaces Alabama as the No. 5 team from the SEC.)
We project that 22 of the 31 conferences will receive only one bid. The other 43 spots in the NCAA Field will be divided among the nine remaining conferences as follows:
• ACC (8) Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech.
Tournament: March 8-11, Tampa.
• Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Syracuse, Villanova.
Tournament: March 7-10, New York.
• Big Ten (5): Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin.
Tournament: March 8-11, Chicago
• Big 12 (4): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech.
Tournament: March 8-11, Oklahoma City.
• Colonial (3): Drexel, Old Dominion, VCU.
Tournament: VCU meets George Mason for championship Monday night.
• Missouri Valley (3): Creighton*, Missouri State, Southern Illinois.
Tournament: Creighton beat Southern Illinois for championship.
• Mountain West (3): Air Force, BYU, UNLV.
Tournament: March 6, 8-10, Las Vegas.
• PAC-10 (5): Arizona, Oregon, Southern Cal, UCLA, Washington State.
Tournament: March 7-10, Los Angeles.
• SEC (5): Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.
Tournament: March 8-11, Atlanta.
ONE BID LEAGUES WITH PROJECTED CHAMPS (Conference tournament dates in parentheses)
• AMERICA EAST: Vermont (25-6) faces Albany (22-9) for championship on Saturday.
• ATLANTIC 10: Xavier (23-7) (March 7-10).
• BIG SKY: Weber State (15-11) (Tuesday, Wednesday).
• BIG WEST: Long Beach (21-7) (March 7-10).
• CONFERENCE-USA: Memphis (27-3) (March 7-10).
• HORIZON: Butler (27-5) plays Wright State (22-9) for championship Tuesday night.
• METRO ATLANTIC: Siena (20-11) plays Niagra (21-11) for championship Monday night.
• MID-AMERICAN: Toledo (March 7-10).
• MID-CONTINENT: Oral Roberts (semifinals Monday, championship Tuesday).
• MEAC: Delaware State (March 6-10).
• NORTHEAST: Central Connecticut plays Sacred Heart for championship Wednesday night.
• PATRIOT: Holy Cross (24-8) plays Bucknell (22-8) for championship on Friday.
• SOUTHLAND: Sam Houston (March 8-9, 11).
• SUN BELT: Western Kentucky (championship Tuesday).
• SWAC: Mississippi Valley (March 7-10).
• WAC: Nevada (March 6, 8-10).
• WEST COAST: Gonzaga (22-10) plays Santa Clara (20-9) Monday night for championship.
HERE’S YOUR BUBBLE
These teams still have work to do before selection Sunday:
• Alabama (20-10, RPI 43): Crimson Tide had a bad loss at Mississippi State on Saturday. Alabama must beat Kentucky in the first round of the SEC Touranment.
• Florida State (19-11, RPI 46): Seminoles have to beat Clemson on Thursday to keep their hopes alive.
• Georgia (17-12, RPI 63): Loss to Tennessee means that Bulldogs must get to finals of SEC Tournament just to have a chance.
• Illinois (21-10, RPI 35): The Illini had a bad loss to Iowa on Saturday. But a couple of wins in the Big Ten Tournament would help.
• Kansas State (21-10, RPI 60): The Wildcats are 1-6 against the Top 50 but finished alone in fourth in the Big 12.
• Massachusetts (23-7, RPI 56): Tied Xavier for Atlantic 10 regular season championship.
• Michigan (20-11, RPI 53): The Wolverines, who lost to Ohio State (65-61) at home on Saturday, need to make some noise in the Big Ten Tournament.
• Stanford (18-11, RPI 57): The Cardinal has five wins against the Top 50 and one against No. 1 UCLA. A loss to Southern Cal (21-10, RPI 54) in the first round of the Pac-10 Tournament could keep Stanford at home.
• West Virginia (20-8, RPI 58): Mountaineers played a soft schedule but did beat UCLA at home.
IN, BUT NERVOUS
• Arkansas (18-12, RPI 48): Hogs put themselves back in the field by winning at Vanderbilt. Must beat South Carolina in first round of SEC Tournament to say in.
• Clemson (21-9, RPI 36): The Tigers put themselves back in the field by winning at Virginia Tech. Lose to Florida State on Thursday in the ACC Tournament and Clemson could be out again.
• Missouri State (22-10, RPI 38): Lost badly to Creighton in the semifinals of Missouri Valley Tournament.
• Drexel (22-8, RPI 40), Old Dominion (24-8, RPI 39), VCU (26-6, RPI 51): If George Mason (18-14, RPI 120) upsets VCU in the Colonial championship at least one of those teams is going to get left out.
THE BIG GUYS ARE PULLING FOR
• Butler (25-5, RPI 30), which faces Wright State (22-9, RPI 81) in the finals of the Horizon Tournament. If Wright State wins the Horizon will get two bids instead of one and the power conferences will likely lose a spot.
• How do you see it?
Permalink | Comments (43) | Post your comment | Categories: Tony Barnhart's daily picks
Comments
By Mike Gansey
March 5, 2007 12:32 PM | Link to this
you’re a moron, clemson and purdue should not be in over wvu, you’re a douche
By Curt
March 5, 2007 12:51 PM | Link to this
How do you go from picking Alabama to Arkansas. This is ludicrous. If there so good why did they not win the west?
By Jason
March 5, 2007 1:12 PM | Link to this
This is unbelievable. You don’t even mention the SEC west champions, Ole Miss or MS State. If Arkansas is so good, why did they finish third in the division at 7-9. Ok they have one good non conference win against West VA, but that does not put them in ahead of those teams. You even put UGA as a bubble ahead of Ole Miss and State. By the way, they lost by 18 to Ole Miss last week. Your crazy and bias Barnhart
By Jim
March 5, 2007 1:20 PM | Link to this
Arkansas - Are you serious. Just because they beat Vandy??? They are 5-5 in their last 10, they didn’t win the SEC West, 3-8 on the road and their 2 best wins were early in the season. Give me a break these guys would be lucky to get in the NIT. SEC should only have 5 if MSU, Bama or UGA make a run to the title game. Otherwise, the SEC will have a NIT champion this year.
By kp
March 5, 2007 1:27 PM | Link to this
Calm down people, it just one man’s opinion. All that matters is what the committee thinks on Sunday. So save the b itching until Sunday.
By h_charles
March 5, 2007 1:28 PM | Link to this
Hey, Tony Memphis is already a lock for a two, and may get a one with a few breaks. (unless they drop a game in the C-USA tourney). Georgetown has no shot in the mediocre Big Least, and they don’t deserve one with that record. Memphis has only 3 losses — all on the road, all against stout teams. How about you show them a little love?
By Curt
March 5, 2007 1:36 PM | Link to this
It’s a morons opinion who’s beyond being bias.
By HoopsFanatic
March 5, 2007 2:15 PM | Link to this
I am so glad you finally removed BAMA from your list. These Ole Miss fans were starting to get mad at you. BAMA doesnt deserve to go but then again, neither does any team from the West!!
By yellowblood
March 5, 2007 2:21 PM | Link to this
Good grief ! TB’s list is not a pack of promises. Its only one person’s opinion and if the intention is to stir up debate he sure picked the right topic. How many of us pick every winner after the field of 64 is selected? How many of us even pick the final four correctly ? I see things I disagree with also. Duke should not even go but they will. Clemson should go but probably won’t.
By UGAG SUX
March 5, 2007 2:33 PM | Link to this
Where are all the bulldawg people that were saying “Dawgs will be in the NCAA”. You have to win the SEC to go because at losing the champ game would make the doggies 19-13 {win over Val St does not count). The NCAA will not take them at all. Can you all say, at once, “Welcome to the NIT”.
By DAWGGONE
March 5, 2007 3:07 PM | Link to this
Georgia will face Penn State in the first round of the NIT…
By Curt
March 5, 2007 3:21 PM | Link to this
Even though the West is weak this year, I would give heavy consideration to any team from the West that goes the furthest in the tourney.
By Diamond
March 5, 2007 3:26 PM | Link to this
Tiger High is a joke. 3 losses against “stout” teams. Ok, fine. How many WINS do they have against “stout” teams? And Kentucky doesn’t count. Next year, they might want to schedule White Station HS to boost their SOS.
By Jason
March 5, 2007 3:27 PM | Link to this
I agree with Curt…and yes Ole Miss fans are mad. Let’s stop giving the big programs so much props when it’s not deserved. I don’t care if this is the AJC, quit talking up UGA so much. They should not even be in consideration as a bubble team. They will lose their first game anyway, and they finished fifth in their division. We beat Tenn. LSU, Bama, Ark, UGA!!, and gave a Fla a better fight than UGA ever did. We may not be perennial winners, but Andy Kennedy is doing what’s taken Felton, how many years to do, in one year. Comparing our athletic budget and players with these other SEC schools, it is worth being upset when we can’t even get mentioned by my hometown paper!!
By Kory
March 5, 2007 3:53 PM | Link to this
Alright folks, let’s look at it this way:
From the SEC, you have 4 locks from the East Division. No more, no less. There is NO way you can consider Georgia for a bid. Why? Seriosuly consider Georgia’s schedule. This is where the RPI has it’s weaknesses. Only ONE, I repeat, ONE, of the three ranked non-conference teams that Georgia has played is STILL ranked! What does that mean? UGA beat an underachieving Gonzaga team virtually at HOME. I’d love to see the Dawgs travel to Spokane, WA and play Gonzaga. I think the results would be different.
Also, look at some of the regular non-conference fillers. Shall we forget that UGA lost at HOME to Western Kentucky early in the year? Then you’re also playing teams like Alabama A&M, Southern, SC State, Wake Forest, Jacksonville, Kennesaw, and Gardner-Webb. Only TWO of those teams finished in the top half of their low-major conference standings. But you also can’t forget that thriller against Division 2 Valdosta State.
I see no justification to let a team in that we’re comparing to Ole Miss and Arkansas when, in fact, Georgia got smoked by the Rebels and pulled out a 3-point home win over Arkansas.
Ole Miss’ case is slightly different. I know you may say “hey, Ole Miss’ schedule was just as weak.” In the Rebels defense, let me explain.
Ole Miss played 13 non-conference games. Only THREE of those opponents DID NOT finish in the top half of their conference standings. By the way, FOUR of those 13, won their regular season conference titles. Again, this is where the RPI has it’s glitches.
The only thing that holds Andy Kennedy’s club back is their 2-9 road record. In all fairness though, the rest of the SEC West did no better in that category. I also can’t help but notice a win over Tennessee and a win over Alabama, whom UGA went 0-3 combined against. Wait, I’m feeling something, oh yeah, Ole Miss beat Georgia by 18 a mere two weeks ago. Yet UGA deserves consideration over Ole Miss?
Do I think the Rebels will get in? No. The only way they have a chance is if they can win two games in the SEC Tournament. But there should be NO REASON for ANY talk about Georgia getting in the Big Dance. As for Mississippi State and Arkansas……don’t even get me started.
By Mike Gansey's Boyfriend
March 5, 2007 3:55 PM | Link to this
Only a total moron would get as upset as my man does at a basketball tournabment bubble projection
By HoopsFanatic
March 5, 2007 4:02 PM | Link to this
Kory…To try to make a case for Ole Miss but not MSU is ridiculous. I am a fan of neither of the school but it seems that if you want to make a case for Ole Miss to get into the tourney, then MSU being co-division champs should be made too. I understand you won’t because it is MSU but they are just as good a team as Ole Miss and are playing just as well if not better towards the end of the season as your team is. Facts are facts though…no SEC west teams deserve to be in the NCAA Tourney. No team has a winning record. No team has many quality road wins. No team, other than BAMA Has a high enough RPI and that should not help them to get into the tourney. The only way it should happen is by getting an automatic big through a tourney win. Having watched a lot of SEC Basketball this season, I would say right now the team with the best chance of doing so would be MSU. But, there that is a very small chance.
By Kory
March 5, 2007 4:18 PM | Link to this
HoopsFanatic,
I welcome your opinions sheerly because you make some valid points and I that’s more than I can say for some people.
But, to defend my comment about Mississippi State, I see NO quality non-conference wins as well. Granted they did play Winthrop and Clemson. The one quality win that I see AT ALL is the win over Vanderbilt. Other than that, I can’t even make a case for State. Do you see where I’m coming from?
I can make a case for Ole Miss, and even a mediocre Alabama team. But I just don’t see it for Mississippi State or Georgia.
Let’s let bygons be bygons and realize that NO team from the West deserves to get in. But, in fairness, which one deserves the most consideration? I think it’s clearly Ole Miss.
Mark my words though, watch Alabama get in. It seems to happen every year……
By HoopsFanatic
March 5, 2007 4:48 PM | Link to this
Kory…I say with pride that I am a BAMA alum/fan and if we make the tourney, I would be shocked. Not only did we have issues this year with Ron Steele being injured and the personal tragedies that Jemereo Davidson went through, but this team was never really involved enough in the season. We had the chance to win a share of the west Sunday and pretty much get guaranteed a birth in the tourney but we laid an egg and conceded the game once it got too tough. I would think there was something wrong if we made it.
As for MSU, I think they had as many quality wins in confernce as Ole Miss. You used the arguement about beating LSU, BAMA and Arkansas. State did the same and gave Florida all they could handle as well. They also swept AU (not like that is saying too much though). I dont disagree with your arguement about Ole Miss but think if either team did get in, it would require quite a run in the SEC. BAMA getting in, as much as I hate to say it, would just be wrong.
By SEC Fan
March 5, 2007 5:24 PM | Link to this
This entire argument about MSU, Bama, ARK, and Ole Miss is quite funny. You have to look who is playing the best basketball at this stage of the game and it is MSU and Ole Miss. Don’t even get me started with BAMA, they got whacked when they really needed one yesterday (also lost to Auburn twice). As for MSU and Ole Miss they both are 6-4 in their last 10. For BAMA and ARK to be talked about before MSU/OLE MISS is silly—especially with BAMA having to open up with UK Thursday—I would love to see them win and get thumped again by MSU on Friday.
By ButlerDawg
March 5, 2007 5:32 PM | Link to this
The Dawgs don’t deserve to make the tourney…this coming from a Dawg fan. After the Stukes fiasco, and then watching the team just flat out quit in the last few minutes against UT, I’m convinced that they are a shaky bunch at best. I hope Mercer comes back next year, and that our talented recruiting class can grow up fast. If all of that falls into place, then next year should be the Dawgs year.
By jc_dawg
March 5, 2007 5:49 PM | Link to this
Arkansas?
I think not. At this point…only those top 4 teams deserve to get in.
All those 8-8 teams…including UGA had better go on a serious run in the sec tournament or they could also forget it.
Despite that tough loss against Ten and the Dawgs being NIT bound…Felton and the dawgs are putting together something thats going to be special when it comes to Ga basketball. Next year…Ga will be very tough. Mercer..Gaines…Takais Brown and those 2 incoming 4-star forwards. Then you have all the depth behind them. Can’t wait.
By Kory
March 5, 2007 5:57 PM | Link to this
I agree whole heartedly with you HoopsFanatic. Ole Miss and State have virtually the same resume, so it’s hard to say one way or the other.
Regardless though, I still feel that Ole Miss is the better ball club. I just vividly remember Ole Miss thumping State on ESPN. And you know as well as I do that the selection committee pays attention to who’s on nationally televised games. I don’t think there’s a lot of research done.
Oh well, as much as Ole Miss deserves it, they’re gonna have to win a game or two. And we all know that could be difficult………
By GREG
March 5, 2007 6:57 PM | Link to this
WHO DO WE OPEN UP WITH?AND DO YALL THINK WE CAN WIN?
By GREG
March 5, 2007 7:37 PM | Link to this
WE OPEN AT PENN STATE??
By David Thompson
March 5, 2007 9:31 PM | Link to this
Tech at a 9 seed…hmmm. With their talent and waves of athletes, I would hate to play the Jackets in the tourney.
By HoopsFanatic
March 5, 2007 9:50 PM | Link to this
Kory….I hear ya, man! Any way you shake it, I am looking forward to a good tournament here in Atlanta and plan on being there on Thursday and Friday. Saturday if State wins! My wife is a Miss State grad and would love to be able to take her to a tourney game since she cant make it on Friday.
Congrats on the year Ole Miss had. I certainly didn’t expect it and I was impressed. Good luck to your guys in the Tourney!!
PS…I hope State makes it further! What? I gotta keep peace in the house! :)
By Buck Cochran in the NW
March 5, 2007 11:18 PM | Link to this
ButlerDawg, you said it. end of conversation. BTW, who beat Ohio St. tonight?
By keith
March 5, 2007 11:22 PM | Link to this
If GT wins the ACC Tournament then what is their seed? I say 3 or 4, just like the final 4 teams of 90 and ‘03.
By jim Herrick
March 6, 2007 12:23 AM | Link to this
If a team never beats its alleged rival, is it still a rivalry?? Florida and Georgia again on Friday. This must be getting real old for you guys. Where are Lindsey scott and that moron Buck Belue when you really need them??
Should have kept me and my imbecile son and we would have turned it around.
By Matthew at the SLC
March 6, 2007 2:28 AM | Link to this
All this talk about the Tournament is nice for those of you who care.
I care about women’s sports. I think it is the backbone of any college’s athletic department. These girls play their hearts out every night.
You can count on me to attend every woman’s sporting event and I try to take in a few road games when I have time.
Go Lady Dawgs! Go get ‘em girls!
By Willis
March 6, 2007 3:35 AM | Link to this
I think one team will get in from the SEC West if one team can make a run in the SEC Tournament. Arkansas and Miss. State beat Vandy, but Vandy is an unusual team in that they don’t have an inside presence and can be beaten on the occasions when their 3’s aren’t falling and Derrick Byars isn’t having a good game. They are either very good or very bad.
By dadgum
March 6, 2007 8:14 AM | Link to this
GT is playing like a #5-6 seed. Under no circumstances will they enter the NCAA as a #9 seed as strong as they have come on at teh end. The committee looks at that sort of thing as much as the RPI. Duke is teh team that gets overrated and this year is no exception. You watch…Duke will get a 4-5 seed guaranteed and GT is a much better team now than Duke. NO way GT is a #9.
By GTFanSinceBirth
March 6, 2007 10:26 AM | Link to this
The only reason Clemson is even being considered is because of their 17-0 start, but in that 17 game stretch they didn’t play even ONE ranked team! I’m sick of Clemson fans talking about how good their tigers are when they have to schedule these wussy out of conference games just to get a win pct. over .500
By gtfan4life
March 6, 2007 11:23 AM | Link to this
I agree with dadgum. Tech is definitely playing like a 5-6 seed right now. Barnhart has them at #9 and Lunardi has them as a #10 over on espn.com. The ACC tourney gives them a chance to play into a better seed. Even if they lose to Wake in the 1st round, I still think we are no worse than a 10 seed. Beat Wake, then take out Va Tech on Fri., then we are looking at a 6-7 seed. Win the ACC tourney or at least get to the finals, which is very possible based on the teams on our side of the bracket, then we are a 3-4 seed.
I want to stay out of that 8-9 seed, because then you play a #1 in the second round, but I guarantee with the way we are playing that no #1 seed wants to see a possible match up with the Jackets in the second round.
By dbo
March 6, 2007 12:30 PM | Link to this
Honestly, argueing about Ole Miss, MSU, and UGA is FUTILE. They all suck and none of them deserve to dance. SEC is way overrated. No final four team from the SEC this year.
By HoopsFanatic
March 6, 2007 12:42 PM | Link to this
dbo…I would not write off UF just yet. They did something similar last year losing 3 of 4 or something like that to end the regular season and we all know what happened. I am not a Gator fan but would not mind if they won it all being an SEC team!
By Who cares
March 6, 2007 1:03 PM | Link to this
who cares about SEC basketball?? good grief..
By bugboy
March 6, 2007 1:29 PM | Link to this
Tech is a 9 because of horrific losses at Wake, Miami and Clemson. Heck, the way they’re playing right now, you could argue a number 2 seed, but the season’s ups and down’s will knock them down to no higher than a seven.
Unless there’s a major run in Tampa, of course.
By Ray
March 6, 2007 5:46 PM | Link to this
This is a pretty ludicrous bubble, Bradley is 43 in the RPI’s finished 4th in a tough MVC conference and had a SOS of 26 and 21 wins on the season including a win over #11 SIU and they are not even on the bubble. Th site is the typical site that I hate, the site swayed toward the big power conferences who get all the air time, there for all the attention and predictions to make the tourney ahead of the overlooked midmajors Of course lets not forget last years sweet 16 run
By UNCHater
March 6, 2007 5:49 PM | Link to this
DTfansincebirth……..youre sayin the only reason clemson is getting considered is b/c of thier 17-0 start?..yea, youre a douche, they are ranked 34 in the RPI, they are 15th in the nations in wins vs. teams in the top 50 in the RPI and they have 21 wins…oh and they beat yall(gt) this year too……so re-think what you say, before sayin it
By JacketFan
March 6, 2007 10:10 PM | Link to this
Damn, them doggies are crying now. The SEC is such a group of posers. You can bet there will be at least two ACC teams in the final four … put your money down. I’m guessing it will be UNCorGT and Virginia. I’m interested to see how our Jackets play on a neutral court, though in the regular season they were 3 for 4 on neutral courts - two wins over top-30 RPI teams and the loss coming against a real good UCLA team. Folks, this is the time for a team to hit its stride and Tech is surging. This is exactly the scenario we were praying for after that four-game skid. I think we have the freshman talent and the depth to make it an honest run. Mario West is going to have to be a leader and Young and Crittenton must be on their “A” game. Go Jackets!
By b.t.
March 13, 2007 12:20 AM | Link to this
How bout the other dawgs from southern illinois I never thought they would get a # 4 seed. are they even good enough to get anywhere in the tournament?