Home > March to Atlanta: Hoop Head > Archives > 2007 > March > 02 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USTony Barnhart’s daily picks
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
After Tony’s update, log your own opinion in our daily blog.
RISING
• Georgia Tech (19-10, RPI 41): The Yellow Jackets gave the Selection Committee a good reason to put them in by beating North Carolina Thursday night. Tech should not cloud the issue by not being ready for Sunday’s home finale with Boston College. Win that one and Georgia Tech should be a lock.
• Texas (22-7, RPI 31): You do not want to play the Longhorns right now. Texas has won six straight and could tie Kansas for the regular-season Big 12 championship with a win at Lawrence on Saturday.
• Maryland (23-7, RPI 11): That goes double for the Terps, who have won six straight and just posted back to back wins over North Carolina and Duke.
• Virginia (19-8, RPI 34): Win at Wake Forest on Saturday and the Cavaliers are the regular season champions. Virginia has five wins in the Top 25, which includes two over Maryland and one over Duke.
FALLING
• Florida (25-5, RPI 10): Yes the Gators may have lost a No. 1 seed with three losses in their last four games. But don’t forget that last season Florida ended February with a three-game losing streak. But when the calendar turned to March, the Gators won 11 straight games on the way to the national championship.
• Southern Cal (21-9, RPI 52): The Trojans looked like a lock two weeks ago but now they have posted road losses at Arizona State (6-21) and Washington (17-12). Another loss looms Saturday at Washington State (23-6, RPI 29)
• Air Force (22-7, RPI 24): It wasn’t that long ago that we had the Falcons as a No. 4 seed. Now they have lost three straight going into next week’s Mountain West Tournament.
• Florida State (18-11, RPI 50) at Miami: With four wins in the RPI Top 25, the Seminoles still have a shot if they can win at Miami on Saturday and then win a couple of games in the ACC Tournament. Lose at Miami and it’s over for the Seminoles.
• Alabama (20-9, RPI 39) at Mississippi State: The Crimson Tide, playing without guard Ronald Steele, is still in the hunt after beating Ole Miss at home on Wednesday. Lose in Starkville and Alabama finishes 7-9 in the SEC.
• Ohio State at Michigan (20-10, RPI 48): After beating Michigan State earlier this week, the Wolverines will stake a claim to an NCAA bid up they can upset the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor.
• Syracuse (21-8, RPI 49) at Villanova (19-9, RPI 19): We put Syracuse in the field after the Orange beat Georgetown on Monday night. Others aren’t so sure. A win at Villanova on Saturday would remove all doubt.
TOP 65 BY SEEDS
1: UCLA, Kansas, Ohio State, Wisconsin
2: Texas A&M, North Carolina, Georgetown, Florida
3: Memphis, Southern Illinois, Duke, Pittsburgh
4: Maryland, Tennessee, Virginia, Louisville
5: Texas, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Marquette, Michigan State, Boston College, Kentucky
7: Nevada, Butler, Indiana, UNLV
8: Southern Cal, Stanford, Villanova, Arizona
9: Air Force, Oregon, Georgia Tech, BYU
10: Notre Dame, Xavier, Syracuse, Creighton
11: Texas Tech, Winthrop, Alabama, Old Dominion
12: VCU, Purdue, Missouri State, Gonzaga
13: Davidson, Drexel, Holy Cross, Long Beach State
14: Toledo, Vermont, Oral Roberts, Sam Houston
15: South Alabama, Penn, Marist, Austin Peay
16: Delaware State, East Tenn. State, Weber State, Jackson State, Central Connecticut
• Play-in game: Jackson State vs. Central Connecticut
BY CONFERENCE
We project that 22 of the 31 conferences will receive only one bid. The other 43 spots in the NCAA Field will be divided among the nine remaining conferences as follows:
• ACC (7) Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech.
Tournament: March 8-11, Tampa.
• Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Syracuse, Villanova.
Tournament: March 7-10, New York.
• Big Ten (5): Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin.
Tournament: March 8-11, Chicago
• Big 12 (4): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech.
Tournament: March 8-11, Oklahoma City.
• Colonial (3): Drexel, Old Dominion, VCU.
Tournament: Today-March 5, Richmond.
• Missouri Valley (3): Creighton, Missouri State, Southern Illinois.
Tournament: Today-Sunday, St. Louis.
• Mountain West (3): Air Force, BYU, UNLV
Tournament: March 6, 8-10, Las Vegas.
• PAC-10 (6): Arizona, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Washington State.
Tournament: March 7-10, Los Angeles.
• SEC (5): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.
Tournament: March 8-11, Atlanta.
• How do you see it?
Permalink | Comments (64) | Post your comment | Categories: Tony Barnhart's daily picks
Comments
By Rob
March 2, 2007 11:24 AM | Link to this
Since the SEC expanded, only ONE team with a winning conference record hasn’t got into the NCAA tournament. If UGA wins on Saturday, they are in, no doubt.
As for Tech, they have to beat BC. I don’t think the committee is going to put in a sub 500 conference team. That’s just rewarding mediocrity.
By jon
March 2, 2007 11:43 AM | Link to this
9-7 in the SEC is no better than 7-9 in the ACC. Tech would easily have a winning record if they were in the SEC. Georgia is 9-7 but lost to clemson and tech who are under .500 in the tougher conference. Obvioulsy everyone on tv and the committee see it this way too. I’m sorry Rob that is some wishful thinking.
By Ramble ON!
March 2, 2007 11:54 AM | Link to this
Rob put down Odell’s crack pipe, that stuffs bad for you!
By Jon
March 2, 2007 12:27 PM | Link to this
Rob, don’t be a complete iditot. Do you really think that a 9-7(SEC) UGA team would get in over a 7-9(ACC) GT team? Forgetting the facts that GT has a lot more Top 50 wins than UGA and that the ACC is a much tougher league, GT BEAT UGA 78-69! Rewarding mediocrity? UGA basketball IS mediocrity.
By DOC
March 2, 2007 12:45 PM | Link to this
Rob,
The SEC really doesn’t even deserve 5 teams in. ACC only had 4 last year, the committee will make up for that this time around.
Dawgs should make a solid run in the NIT, though, and next year they will be ready to go to the big dance.
By Rob
March 2, 2007 1:07 PM | Link to this
Go look at the conference RPI rankings. The SEC and ACC are 1 and 2,depending on which one you look at. A 9-7 SEC record is just as good, and probably better, than an 8-8 ACC record—and definitely better than a losing 7-9 record. UGA has a better SOS as well.
By Randy
March 2, 2007 1:12 PM | Link to this
Holy micro-bursts, How can one team (TEXAS) be called rising because of a six game winning streak and then have another (syracuse) team on a six game winning streak and call them falling. Why that is borderline insane.
By ben
March 2, 2007 1:42 PM | Link to this
Lets remember that Tech beat UGA head to head and plays in a much tougher conference. ACC has 7 or 8 teams in top 50 of RPI, So if UGA gets in Tech is a lock no matter what happens sunday.
By GT_JJ
March 2, 2007 1:56 PM | Link to this
Don’t get too worked up there, Randy. I’m pretty sure that, beginning with the “Florida State (18-11, RPI 50) at Miami” paragraph, there was supposed to be a “Games to Watch” section header, or something. Obviously, no one would put Ohio State in a “Falling” category either.
Also, FWIW, I think commenters on this board get way to hung up on conference records. It’s not nearly as simple of a formula as > .500 = in and < .500 = out. Teams get in on their overall resumes, and quality wins means WAY more than conf. record, from what I’ve heard. UGA has been hurt by teams like Gonzaga and WFU having such lousy seasons. A win over UT (even counting the fact they’re such a lousy road team) this weekend would be impressive, and might get them in. A significant win in the conf. tourney would help even more.
I just think all of this “how can Tech be in over UGA”, or vice versa, stuff to be tiresome. It is what it is. Tech has some nice wins on their resume, and in a year where the ACC is strong, has a mediocre chance to get in with a 7-9 conf. record.
JJ
By March Madness Man
March 2, 2007 2:02 PM | Link to this
Georgia Tech comes into Friday with an RPI of 41 (numbers from kenpom.com). Georgia is 56. Tech’s SOS is 28, Georgia is 18. Tech is 7-8 vs. RPI Top 50, Georgia is 2-9. GT is 3-9 in road/neutral, UGA is 4-8. GT has two lossed to teams with RPI over 100 (Miami and Wake), UGA has zero.
These are the numbers that matter, not conference RPI. The numbers overall paint similar resumes, both teams have big opportunities this weekend, UGA vs. UT (RPI of 8), GT vs. BC (RPI of 25).
Right now, GT has the edge for a bid based on RPI difference. GT has more bad losses, but more good wins. UGA may have better conference record currently, but 4 of their 8 wins are against teams with RPI of 90+, GT only has 2.
By GT_JJ
March 2, 2007 2:08 PM | Link to this
Great post, MMM! Thanks for the stats.
By March Madness Man
March 2, 2007 2:26 PM | Link to this
My pleasure, GT_JJ. I’m too much of a college hoops junkie. As info, Joe Lunardi on ESPN (kind of the king of bracketologists) now has Tech in the tourney (he did not have them in before last night), as an 11 seed, so they’re on the edge. He has UGA in the ‘next four out’ category, so they only seem to be 6-10 spots apart. If I were a GT or UGA fan, I’d be watching the mid-major conference tourneys and rooting for the favoristes to win, so as at-large bids don’t get stolen (Southern Illinois, Old Dominion, Winthrop, etc.).
Also, great dramatic win by Georgia State (perfect example of why the conference tourneys are so much fun). They could be one of those “at-large thieves” out of the CAA. If anyone’s interested, you can watch the Panthers tomorrow via free live streaming, just go to caasports.com.
By Randy
March 2, 2007 2:28 PM | Link to this
To GT_JJ
I am not too worked up. Just struck me as slightly wierd. Your points are well taken.
By GT_JJ
March 2, 2007 2:59 PM | Link to this
Randy, No offense intended; just being funny. I had a similar reaction on my first read, as well.
MMM, Yeah, I definitely will be following conf. tourneys more closely than usual. What does Lunardi say about the MVC? They’ll get three bids for sure, right? So, just so long as a team like Bradley (who probably does have the potential) doesn’t go on a tear through the tourney, I’m not too worried about SIU having to win.
By March Madness Man
March 2, 2007 3:11 PM | Link to this
GT_JJ, Lunardi has MVC getting three in: Southern Illinois (RPI is a 5, how wild is that?!, Lunardi has them as a 3 seed), Creighton (RPI of 30, Lunardi has them as a 10 seed), and Missouri State (RPI of 38, Lunardi has them as an 11 a seed). Bradley is currenty an RPI of 44, they seem to be the only other MVC on the edge, so yeah, they need to not win the tourney (they tip off in a tough one with Northern Illinois in about 45 mins) to help the Jackets. I’d also love to see Missouri State lose tonight to Wichita State, that could drop the MVC to two bids (and the mid-major sympathizers would explode).
By Bobby Cremins
March 2, 2007 3:13 PM | Link to this
Rob should be an expecting mediocrity, since the Dogs are used to it, especially football.
Good Lord, the Dogs would get drilled by UNC, GT, Wake or Duke. When it comes to basketball, they are not even in the same league. Rememeber: when you keep Hugh Durham around for 200 years, basketball is not a high-priority, nor really is football.
The ACC rules D1 basketball, hands down and 1 national title from the Gators does not make the SEC a powerhouse.
Tech may or may not get an invite, and even if they do, they may not last long; however, GT is building for a very solid basketball future, if these players hang around and do not jump to the NBA.
Go Jackets!
By Bobby Cremins
March 2, 2007 3:18 PM | Link to this
Bottom line: GT will get more style points by playing in the ACC, as will any other ACC team in that conference.
The committee clearly understands that the SEC is weak in terms of basketball, thus field weak teams, other than UF, which is also questionable this year.
I suspect GT could have an outside shot at the Sweet 16, if they make the dance. Not sure if they can get past 16, depending what sort of guantlet would remain ahead of them.
By Rob
March 2, 2007 3:22 PM | Link to this
You know guys, you are right. UGA sucks in terms of very sport, including football, basketball, baseball, tennis, golf and lady dogs gymnastics.
Our players get drunk in front of the coaches, we lose to less than mediocre teams in football, and our academics is less than par.
I need to transfer to a better school like GT. Thanks for opening my eyes.
GO JACKETS!
By Ramble ON!
March 2, 2007 3:28 PM | Link to this
Watch out for Maryland, I hope GT doesn’t get them early in the ACC tourney…everyone else, I say, BRING IT!
It could be a fun trip in TAMPA!
By Joe
March 2, 2007 3:28 PM | Link to this
If UGA is mediocre at football, what would that make Tech??? Um, that would mean Tech absolutely sucks. Three years of the best player in the history of your school and you still can’t beat the Dawgs.
You have a leg to stand on in basketball..but please, for the love of rational thought and subjectivity, don’t play the football card. How many in a row is it now? I lost count.
By March Madness Man
March 2, 2007 3:39 PM | Link to this
If I’m unerstanding the tiebreaker rules, if Tech beats BC on Sunday, and UNC beats Duke, Tech would be the 6 seed for the ACC tourney. Which means they’d play the 11 seed (Wake, NC State, or Miami) at 9 pm ET next Thursday. The winner of that game would play the 3 seed on Friday night, which will likely be UNC again (uh oh).
By yellowblood
March 2, 2007 3:40 PM | Link to this
Why even discuss UGA on a basketball blog ? Surely, there’s more going on. Such as Winthrop.
By Techster
March 2, 2007 3:48 PM | Link to this
Sorry Rob, we have academic standards to maintain. Maybe you Georgia Southern will let you go there…
By UGAG SUX
March 2, 2007 3:50 PM | Link to this
Hey Rob, do not forget that 1 of Uga’s wins was against Val. St and that does not count in the standings. Uga is currently 16-11 w/o the VAl St victory and beating Tenn would make them 17-11. Uga must beat Tenn and 2-3 wins in the SEC to get to 19-20 wins. With a record of 18-12 (a loss in the tourney) it will be difficult to get in to the Dance. Hello NIT. If Tech beats BC and wins 2 in the ACC, they could move up to a 5-6 seed since they would be 10-3 in the last 13 games. If FL and UNC both win on sunday and win their tourneys, they both will probably earn their #1 seeds back.
By March Madness Man
March 2, 2007 4:08 PM | Link to this
A win over UT would be quite a boost to UGA’s RPI, a boost from their current 56 to probably 48 or so. EVen with that win, they’re likely the 5 seed in the SEC East, which gets them likely Auburn or Alabama in the first round of the SEC, but then the SEC East 1 seed in round two. Tough road, but it does give them the opportunity to get quality wins. They still have a decent shot to get in, but it does look like they’ll have to earn it.
I think Tech would have a difficult time getting up to a 5 seed, but if they do beat BC (a home game against the RPI 25 squad), and then face and beat UNC in the second round of the ACC, they may get up to a 6.
By mark
March 2, 2007 4:43 PM | Link to this
GT record against top 50 and most recent 10 games are why they are clearly above UGA. Rob, don’t worry about UGA getting in NCAA-unless they win their tournament they are out. UGA needs to worry about keeping their coach-Felton is looking to leave Athens for a better bball school.
By GT
March 2, 2007 4:49 PM | Link to this
Maybe if UGA had Matthew Stafford on the basketball team they would be better. See as how he is probably the best player in the history of UGA Football, why not give an athlete like that a shot at hoops also. I think UGA would sell out basketball games just to watch Stafford sit on the bench!! If they add him to the roster, surely the selection committee will put them into the dance!!!
By March Madness Man
March 2, 2007 4:56 PM | Link to this
Right now Tech is 6-4 in their last 10, UGA is 5-5, so it’s closer than you may think. Problem for UGA is that they haven’t had a quality win since beating Kentucky on January 24, and they only have two wins over teams in RPI top 57 all year. Gonzaga is at 70, so that win doesn’t hold a lot of value at this point. Tech, on the other hand, will have the recent win over UNC (RPI of 3), and wins over Duke (RPI of 13), Memphis (7), Clemson (47), FSU (50), and UGA (56). Right now, despite UGA having the better conference record, the resume points to Tech over UGA. Of course, that could change a bit this weekend.
By Interesting Enough
March 2, 2007 5:31 PM | Link to this
It seems that Tech should be rooting for UGA to win this weekend vs. Tenn. and make a run in the SEC tourney, If UGA gets its RPI below 50 (currently 56) that will make Tech’s win over UGA look even better and would give Tech possibly 9 wins over the RPI top 50, assuming Tech takes care of business vs. BC on Sunday. Only UCLA, NC and Ohio st can boost 9 or more wins over the top 50 in the RPI.
By Matt
March 2, 2007 6:21 PM | Link to this
UGA has beaten the bumblebees six straight years in football…that has to hurt.
By Matt
March 2, 2007 6:40 PM | Link to this
Tony, who would be the SEC East #4 if the following happened on Sat:
*UGA beat Tenn *Florida beat Kentucky
All three teams would be 9-7 in conference, tied in head-to-head and have a 5-5 SEC East division record.
Thanks
By mountain fan
March 2, 2007 7:44 PM | Link to this
App State before Georgia dogs
By trade Vick for CalvinJohnsn!
March 3, 2007 3:37 AM | Link to this
man if uga played in the acc theyd get KILLED!! Ga Tech deserves to be in the tourney even if they loose to BC.
By Kenny
March 3, 2007 9:12 AM | Link to this
Matt. the record is seven straight years in football. that record is still held by Tech. That must really hurt.
By Matt
March 3, 2007 11:22 AM | Link to this
Kenny, you’re livin in the past man. Are you referring to Tech’s streak between 1949 - 1956? Were you watching those games? And, by the way, it was 8 straight years…you must just be a Tech fan and not an alumn, cause I thought Tech alumns were good at counting.
By K-N9ne
March 3, 2007 11:36 AM | Link to this
UGA lost to GT on the road without Sundiata Gaines. With Gaines, there’s no way the Dawgs lose that game. We lost at Clemson without a healthy Gaines and at the time Clemson was the hottest team in the country. They had momentum. And to whomever is posting under the name Bobby Cremins saying that UGA would be drilled by NC, Duke, Wake, and GT: We weren’t drilled by GT (and we won last year when we weren’t nearly as good as this year) and we beat Wake Forest on the road this year (another team GT lost to). I do think GT has the upperhand now after beating UNC, but the Dawgs definitely get in with a win Saturday and one in the tournament. Matt, if UGA, Kentucky, and Tenn are tied, it goes: #3 Tenn, #4 UGA, #5 Kentucky based on division records.
Finally Kenny, does 7 in a row hurt? You tell me. UGA beat Tech from 1991-1997. And you can tell me again after Stafford lights up Tech for about 6 TD’s in November. Although I am just a little bit worried now that Tech no longer has UGA’s MVP, Reggie Ball.
By Griff
March 4, 2007 9:01 PM | Link to this
Well, I guess we know where UGA is going now! Good luck in the NIT!
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