If Big Brown doesn't win the Preakness, I can't tell you who will. Although Barbaro was the 1-2 favorite two years ago when he broke down at Pimlico, Bernardini ran so well that a healthy Barbaro might have had trouble beating him. Big Brown has no such challenger.

Trainer Rick Dutrow sees the two-week turnaround from the Derby as Big Brown's biggest obstacle. "I'm glad to see the competition that's in there," he said. "It's not exactly a stellar field.

" ... I know he's going to react [regress off a peak effort]. It just becomes a matter of what we can get by with to win again."

Denis of Cork, a distant third in the Derby, is skipping the Preakness to await the Belmont. Trainer David Carroll had no illusions that he could make up 8 1/4 lengths on Big Brown this weekend. "Who the heck is going to beat Big Brown?" Carroll said. "He has to beat himself."

On paper, Big Brown can't lose, which of course has been said a million times about odds-on horses that lost. But if he breaks well and has no physical or traffic problems, it's hard to imagine any horse in this field beating him.

So who'll finish second?

Icabad Crane won the 1 1/8-mile Tesio Stakes at Pimlico, so you know he likes the track —- he's the only horse in the field to have run here —- and can get the distance.Gayego has speed, and if the fractions are moderate he could hang around.

Kentucky Bear had a rough trip in the Blue Grass but still closed for third, beaten by 1 1/2 lengths. He has license to improve in his fourth career start, but the Blue Grass form didn't hold up in Louisville, and his miler's pedigree says no to staying 1 3/16 miles.

Yankee Bravo has strong late-pace numbers and was an OK-third behind Pyro in his only dirt try. He could pass tired horses to get into the triple.

Several entries appear to have no hope.

Macho Again looks like a sprinter-miler who won't stay the distance. Giant Moon was a 4-for-4 Belmont/Aqueduct star before reality hit hard in the Gotham and Wood Memorial.

Hey Byrn didn't beat anybody in Florida, even though he did win the Holy Bull Stakes at the Preakness distance. Racecar Rhapsody, Stevil, Riley Tucker and Tres Borrachos each has one win.

> No. 6 spot: The scratch of Behindatthebar on Friday due to a bruised foot reduced the Preakness field to 12. Behindatthebar had post No. 5, so every horse to his outside moves in one slot. Big Brown slides into No. 6, the stall from which a record 15 Preakness winners have started since 1909.

—- Associated Press reports were also used in this story.