Analyzing Braves’ up-and-down season so far

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Monday, July 13, 2009

The Braves entered the All-Star break at 43-45, six games behind Philadelphia, after they followed up a five-game winning steak by winning only four of their last nine games.

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Braves fans have had a lot to digest, including the departures of Tom Glavine and Jeff Francoeur, and the rise of Tommy Hanson and Martin Prado. A reflection on how the Braves’ 2009 season has progressed in each of these areas:

Starting Pitching

What went right: Mission accomplished after setting out to rebuild the rotation. Braves starters put up a 3.77 ERA, third-best in the National League. Jair Jurrjens is sixth in the NL with a 2.91 ERA. Javier Vazquez ranks second in the NL in strikeouts (136) and seventh in ERA (2.95). Hanson won four of his first five major league starts and has a 2.85 ERA after seven appearances. Braves starters have also remained relatively healthy, after losing Glavine, John Smoltz and Tim Hudson to injury last year.

What went wrong: A lack of run support left Braves starters with a mere 31-31 record. Only Derek Lowe (8-7) and Hanson (4-0) have winning records. Lowe just snapped an 0-4 stretch over five starts during which he had an 8.61 ERA and a .391 opponents’ batting average. Kenshin Kawakami has pitched six or more innings in only half of his 16 starts and has a staff-high 3.65 walks/9 innings. Vazquez had to skip his last start before the break with a strained abdominal muscle.

Relief Pitching

What went right: Rafael Soriano rebounded from ulnar nerve transposition surgery to move past Mike Gonzalez into the closer’s role. He’s converted 12 of 13 saves, has a 1.48 ERA and a .158 opponents’ batting average. Lobbying from manager Bobby Cox couldn’t get Soriano into the All-Star game as a substitute but the Braves had a good case. Also, left-hander Eric O’Flaherty is having a career year with a 3.34 ERA, a .236 opponents batting average and allowing only five of 26 inherited runners to score.

What went wrong: Gonzalez has been bothered by elbow tendinitis and struggled with a 10.29 ERA over his past eight outings, including two losses, a blown save and a .308 batting average allowed. Braves relievers have a combined 4.09 ERA, which ranks a dismal 13th in the NL. And they have three of the NL’s top six pitchers in appearances: Peter Moylan (1st), O’Flaherty (3rd) and Gonzalez (tied for 5th), which can either be a compliment and a detriment.

Offense

What went right: Brian McCann rebounded from vision problems to hit .320 in 56 games since his return from the disabled list. Prado justified Cox’s decision to play him every day by winning NL player of the week with a .577 batting average in a stretch that included book-end four-hit games and doubles in six straight games. Chipper Jones’ batting average isn’t astronomical as it was the last two seasons, but he’s still hitting .290, is second on the team with 41 RBIs and leads the club with a .411 on-base percentage, which includes 55 walks. Yunel Escobar leads the Braves with 44 RBIs and is second in the NL with a .410 batting average with runners in scoring position.

What went wrong: The Braves had poor production from two key spots — right fielder Jeff Francoeur (.256 batting average, .286 on-base percentage, .358 slugging percentage), who was traded to the Mets; and second baseman Kelly Johnson (.214, .286, .359), who was benched, then put on the DL. The Braves hit eight homers in their first three games in Philadelphia, but only 60 in the next 85 games. Ranked 13th in the NL in homers, the Braves are the only team in the majors without a home run hitter in double digits. Jones leads the team with nine. Omar Infante has missed two months with a broken finger after hitting .349 and batting leadoff.

Defense

What went right: Nate McLouth picked up where Jordan Schafer left off and gives the Braves a steady hand in center field. Both McLouth and recently-traded Francoeur have six outfield assists. First baseman Casey Kotchman has yet to commit an error in 114 games for the Braves.

What went wrong: Jones is having a wobbly year at third base, where his 13 errors have already equaled his total of 2008. Escobar was at times stellar and at times mystifying at shortstop. Cox benched him in the middle of a game in Baltimore after he made two mistakes in the field, just days after he cost the Braves the winning run against the Pirates for not monitoring a runner rounding third.

Stat Breakdown

A position-by-position look at how the Braves compare to other National League teams in terms on their on-base plus slugging percentage, a good measure of overall production at the plate, at each position. The Braves have addressed center field, trading for Nate McLouth, and recently right field, trading for Ryan Church.

OPS NL Rank

Catcher .870 1st

First base .728 15th

Second base .790 6th

Third base .826 4th

Shortstop .730 5th

Left field .743 8th

Center field .683 14th

Right field .626 15th


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