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Friday, November 21, 2008
Popularity doesn’t always transfer well
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
In 1938 a popular president came to Georgia and urged the defeat of incumbent U.S. Sen. Walter F. George, who’d broken with him over his efforts to pack the U.S. Supreme Court. FDR’s involvement probably assured George’s re-election.
A presumably wiser President-elect Barack Obama has sent his voice instead. Smart move. The odds are against Georgians giving Obama what he wants — another U.S. senator to support his agenda, especially one who could be the decisive vote in blocking filibusters against court-packing or aggressive expansion of government.
Getting too closely associated with the Jim Martin campaign involves real political risk for Obama. Better to send the surrogates for appearances and his voice for radio commercials, as he did in the week just ended. One of those surrogates, former President Bill Clinton, the last Democrat to carry Georgia, knows the inability of popular political figures — including those headed to the White House — to transfer popularity.
Clinton won Georgia in 1992 and came here to campaign for incumbent Democrat Wyche Fowler, who had been drawn into a runoff by State Sen. Paul Coverdell. Though Fowler led by 35,000 votes out of more than 2.2 million cast, Coverdell won the runoff by 16,000 votes of about 1.2 million cast despite Clinton’s efforts.
A relevant difference between then and now is that blacks were 22 percent of registered voters in 1992 and about 30 percent now. The latter number is particularly significant.
Three Republican members of the Georgia House of Representatives lost to Democrats on Nov. 4. They included Steve Tumlin of Marietta, John Heard of Lawrenceville and Allen Freeman of Macon. In 2004, Tumlin’s district was 26.4 percent black; this year it was 30.9 percent. Heard’s was 21.3 in 2004 and 29.9 this year. Freeman’s was 32.9 in 2004 and 36.5 this year. A fourth, Republican incumbent Robert Mumford of Conyers, conceded a district where the black percentage of registered voters had gone from 32.4 in 2004 to 48.9 in 2008.
White Democrats, meanwhile, are disappearing in districts where the percentage of black registered voters is below 30. Two of them, the veteran Jeanette Jamieson of Toccoa and Charles Jenkins of Blairsville, lost to Republicans this year.
Without question, Martin’s chances hinge on black turnout and primarily black turnout in three counties in Metro Atlanta. Obama won Fulton 272,000 to 130,000 for John McCain. He won DeKalb by 255,000 to 65,000 and Clayton by 83,000 to 17,000.
On Nov. 4, U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss got about 1,000 fewer votes than McCain in Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton. But Martin got 23,000 fewer than Obama in Fulton, 21,000 fewer in DeKalb and 7,000 fewer in Clayton — meaning more than 50,000 Obama supporters didn’t bother to vote for Martin while they were standing in the voting booth. Those three counties accounted for more than one-fifth of the votes cast in the U.S. Senate race.
The Democratic base in the state is probably about 40 percent; maybe slightly more. Blacks turning out for Obama clearly boosted the entire Democratic ticket. Obama ran about 6 percentage points better than John Kerry did four years ago; blacks accounted for most all of it since exit polls indicated that he’d run slightly less well among whites than did Kerry.
The uncertainty is whether their passion for Obama inspires them to return to the polls on Dec. 2 to vote in a runoff that features two obscure races ( a runoff for a seat on the Georgia Court of Appeals and another for a seat on the Public Service Commission) and a Democratic candidate who doesn’t stir the masses.
In 1992 Georgia still had a solid state Democratic Party network controlling the state House, Senate and governor’s office and an immensely popular Democratic U.S. senator in Sam Nunn. That advantage no longer exists. Obama has about 25 field offices around Georgia, but that’s not the same.
What it all adds up to is this: Long-term, Republicans have a serious concern. With black registration at 30 percent, the stars could soon align for a charismatic Democrat running statewide. That Democrat most likely is not Jim Martin. He has a high and steep mountain to climb getting voters who were inspired by somebody else to return three weeks later to vote for him.
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