E-tailers expect 8% bump for holidays

If there’s any good news for retailers this holiday season, it may be online.

While retailers brace for declines in sales at traditional brick-and-mortar stores, a survey of leading store operators by accounting and consulting firm BDO Seidman indicates they’re expecting an 8 percent increase in online sales beginning Monday, the so-called “Cyber Monday.”

That’s down from past annual growth of 20 percent or more online, but still much better than what’s expected at shopping malls and stores. Retailers predict same-store sales at traditional outlets to decline by about 3 percent this year, according to the consulting firm’s survey of retail marketing executives. The outlook gets bleaker with every bit of bad economic news.

“The one bright spot is online sales,” said Ted Vaughan, a partner in BDO Seidman’s Dallas office.

So far, though, the potential bright spot is pretty dim.

A study released last week by Internet research firm comScore showed that e-commerce spending for the first 23 days of November was down 4 percent from the comparable period last year.

“With consumer confidence low and disposable income tight, the first weeks of November have been very disappointing,” comScore Chairman Gian Fulgoni said in a statement.

Online retailers are holding out hope that things will turn around for several reasons.

Cash-strapped consumers —- especially those still worried about fuel prices —- may turn to the Web to do more comparison shopping and buying this year, and they may wait to part with their dollars until later in the shopping season.

Also, technology improvements —- everything from fast broadband connections at home to 3-D sizing tools where consumers can virtually try on clothes —- are making online shopping easier than ever.

About 96 percent of shoppers recently surveyed by comparison shopping site PriceGrabber.com said they plan to do at least some holiday shopping online. About 55 percent said they plan to buy as much as half their holiday gifts on the Web, up from 45 percent a year earlier.

Online shoppers are looking for bargains.

In the PriceGrabber.com survey, 71 percent said they plan to spend less online than they have in the past. About 45 percent said they will only buy something online if it comes with free shipping.

“People are still giving gifts this holiday season, but it’s more important than ever that they find values and get the value out of every dollar they spend,” said PriceGrabber.com President Ron LaPierre, whose site gets referral fees for sending comparison shoppers to Web retailers.

Knowing they face a tough year even online, Web retailers are doing everything they can to attract customers and cater to bargain-hunters.

According to the National Retail Federation, about 84 percent of stores plan to offer online promotions beginning Monday, up from about 72 percent a year ago.

Toys “R” Us, for instance, is offering exclusive online deals on at least 150 products beginning Monday.

Plano, Texas-based J.C. Penney Co. is rolling out a new “Screenbusters” promotion with special online prices and free shipping on some items.

Kmart is offering discounts of 5 percent on electronics and 10 percent on other items (toys excluded) if buyers purchase online. Wal-Mart and Target also are offering special Web-only deals.

“As shoppers focus on price this holiday season, online retailers will be extremely competitive to offer the very best deals,” Scott Silverman, executive director of Shop.org said in a statement. Shop.org is a Web-focused division of the National Retail Federation.

Online giant eBay Inc. is pulling out all the stops for bargain-hunters.

Last week, it started offering “Holiday Door Busters,” where one lucky bidder can get high-end products such as digital cameras or iPods for as little as $1. It also started new categories for cut-rate bargains and items that come with free shipping.

“We’re aggressively pursuing buyers who are looking for bargains,” said eBay’s Jim Griffith, who holds the title of marketplace expert. In his 12 years with eBay, Griffith said the company has never launched so many bargain-oriented promotions as this year.

“But we knew … based on consumer spending and the dire news coming out of Washington that this could be a challenging season,” he said.

SHOPPING ON WEB

Sales at traditional retail stores are expected to decline this holiday shopping season, but Internet store sales are expected to grow slightly, beginning with “Cyber Monday,” which can be the biggest shopping day on the Web. A look at some predictions:

> Overall holiday Internet sales are expected to rise by 8 percent. Same-store sales at traditional brick-and-mortar stores are expected to decline 3 percent or more.

> “Cyber Monday” sales on Monday are expected to grow by 2.4 percent from last year and account for about 12 percent of total holiday Internet sales.

> About 71 percent of online consumers say they plan to spend less this holiday season than in past years.

> About 96 percent of shoppers say they expect to do at least some shopping online this year. About 55 percent say they expect to do more than half their shopping on the Web.

Source: BDO Seidman survey of top retail marketing officers; PriceGrabber.com survey of consumers