Chances dim for Obama to visit state

It is a near certainty that Barack Obama won’t come to Georgia to campaign for Democrat Jim Martin before next week’s U.S. Senate runoff against Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss.

A few Democrats maintain a sliver of hope that the president-elect could make a surprise, guerrilla-style foray into Atlanta within the next eight days. But late last week, the word from Washington was that such a huge personal investment by Obama wasn’t under discussion.

Tea leaves at the bottom of the cup point to the same conclusion:

> Within a matter of days last week, Obama completed a rapprochement with U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman, the independent Democrat who endorsed Republican John McCain, and cemented a partnership with former primary foe Hillary Clinton. A president-elect aiming for a post-partisan administration isn’t likely to pick a heated, red-blue Senate contest as a backdrop for his first Southern appearance.

> Very quietly, the Obama team has let it be known that the new administration will not immediately reassess the U.S. military’s policy of “don’t ask, don’t tell,” which permits gays to serve in the armed forces —- as long as they don’t discuss their sexual orientation. Raising the topic of gays in the military was considered by many to be the second of two out-of-the-box decisions that ended badly for a newly elected President Bill Clinton.

The first was a November 1992 trip to Georgia, as president-elect, to campaign for Democratic incumbent Wyche Fowler in this state’s last U.S. Senate runoff. Fowler was defeated by Republican Paul Coverdell.

> As of Sunday afternoon, only one post-November campaign can boast a videotaped endorsement by the president-elect. And that’s the effort to bring the 2016 Olympics to Chicago. Martin is from Atlanta, a city that will have clout enough in the Obama administration. But it can’t compete with the City of the Big Shoulders.

A Martin radio ad, featuring an endorsement from Obama, began airing in Georgia last week. Perhaps there’s an Obama TV ad in the works. If so, then it has been hoarded as a climactic —- but digital —- appearance by the president-elect. If the ad doesn’t exist, that, too, speaks to Obama’s priorities.

Whether the first African-American elected president should invest himself in Georgia’s Senate race has been a hotly debated topic both here and in Washington. Behind the scenes, stalwarts say that the abandonment of a Democrat still in the field would send the wrong message, especially in the South.

Obama loyalists reply that Martin has hardly been hung out to dry. The Obama campaign in Georgia has been kept intact for the Senate candidate’s use.

Thousands of AFL-CIO volunteers reportedly are headed here for the campaign’s final days. And in case you haven’t noticed, outside groups have pumped millions of dollars into TV ads on Martin’s behalf. Clinton showed up last week. Former Vice President Al Gore attended an Atlanta fund-raiser last night. And lest we forget, Obama is about to inherit two wars and an economic meltdown.

“A politician has got to have an upside to coming here. I haven’t found an upside yet,” said Jon Flack, who operates Tondee’s Tavern, one of the state’s most influential Democratic blogs.

Flack has argued since Nov. 4 that the race in Georgia is within reach even without the president-elect’s presence. And Republicans agree, judging from the tea leaves at the bottom of their cups.

Chambliss has just scheduled a barbecue in Gainesville at noon Wednesday, just as the nation begins to shut down for Thanksgiving. Former U.S. Sen. Zell Miller and Gov. Sonny Perdue will be in attendance. That’s not the sign of a candidate who’s coasting to Dec. 2.

jgalloway@ajc.com