Low turnout likely in Senate runoff

Election Day has come and gone, but a political spotlight will be focused for the next several weeks on some unfinished business in Georgia: the U.S. Senate race.

Neither U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) of Moultrie nor former state Rep. Jim Martin (D-Atlanta) got a majority of the vote in last week’s election, a bitter three-way battle in which Libertarian Allen Buckley finished a faraway third.

So under Georgia law, the two top vote-getters will duke it out in a Dec. 2 runoff expected to bring big-name politicos, big money and low turnout.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain has confirmed that he will campaign in Georgia for Chambliss —- his Senate colleague —- and Martin has invited President-elect Barack Obama.

As for money, University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock estimates the two parties could dump $5 million or more into the race over the next three weeks to pay for TV advertising. Neither campaign would comment on how much they expect the extended race to cost. “Millions,” said Ellery Gould when asked how much Martin needed to raise.

Voter turnout, meanwhile, could be cut nearly in half, if Georgia history is any lesson.

Complicating turnout this year will be the fact that the runoff falls between Thanksgiving and Christmas —- when Georgians’ minds are not likely to be on voting.

“We will see a lot of [TV] advertising, and I expect most of it will be negative,” said Bullock, who co-authored the book, “Runoff Elections in the United States.”

“The more you can get a voter angry or scared, the more likely that voter is to go back to the polls.”

The Secretary of State’s Office will certify votes in the Senate race this week, and only then will the need for a runoff be official. Both the Chambliss and Martin campaigns, however, have been in campaign overdrive ever since Tuesday’s general election ended.

Georgia’s race is one of three U.S. Senate contests that still are in limbo —- the others are in Alaska and Minnesota. Democrats must win all three to attain a 60-vote, filibuster-proof majority to quickly advance their agenda.

That possibility has Democrats salivating over Chambliss’ job and Republicans vowing to hold the line.

Getting campaign-weary voters to go back to the polls will be the focus of the runoff, and that will not be easy based on the state’s last high-profile U.S. Senate runoff.

In 1992, Republican challenger Paul Coverdell defeated Democratic U.S. Sen. Wyche Fowler after a costly and heated extended- election cycle.

The Coverdell-Fowler runoff cost more than their general election fight, but barely over half of the voters who cast ballots in the general election went back to the polls for the runoff.

Eric Tanenblatt, who was Coverdell’s political director and is now the senior managing director of the government affairs practice at McKenna Long & Aldridge, predicted the next three weeks will be much more intense for both campaigns as the national political spotlight moves to Georgia.

“I think this will be a full-fledged campaign,” said Tanenblatt, a Republican who was Gov. Sonny Perdue’s first chief of staff. “I think we will have a flood of surrogates coming in to energize the base.”

Tanenblatt predicted that an Obama visit to the state would not give Martin a decisive edge. Obama lost the state to McCain on Nov. 4.

“That will create some energy,” Tanenblatt said. “But in the end … people are not voting for Barack Obama. They are voting for Jim Martin. I think we are a reliable red state. Just because Barack Obama comes down here does not mean Jim Martin will win.”

Bill Clinton, who won the presidency in 1992 and also carried Georgia, came to campaign for Fowler in the runoff, Tanenblatt said. But Fowler still was not able to beat back Coverdell.

Bullock said runoffs are unpredictable because of the low voter turnout.

“If the incumbent finishes first [in the general election], he’s more likely to win,” Bullock said. “But it’s less of an advantage for high-visibility offices, like governor or senator.”