U.S. power to dim by 2025, analysts say

Washington —- A new assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies predicts that U.S. influence in the world will decline over the next two decades, as surging powers such as China and India, as well as independent entities including tribes and criminal networks, gain international clout.

The report, released Thursday and meant to serve as a guidepost for the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama, offers a vision of a global future in which the United States, while the most powerful, is just “one of a number” of important players on the world stage.

Describing the findings, Tom Fingar, the deputy director of National Intelligence for analysis, said there would be a “diminished gap between the United States and everybody else. … The unipolar moment is over.”

The report, titled “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World,” represents the U.S. intelligence community’s most comprehensive examination to date of long-term security issues, pointing to a likely increase in terrorist violence even as support for extremism begins to wane.

Its central finding is that the United States will remain the world’s foremost economic and military force, but that its standing as an unrivaled superpower is likely to diminish as a “global multipolar system” begins to emerge.

China stands to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other single country, and India will strive to represent one of the world’s economic poles. How the world adjusts to their increased roles will be up to those two countries, the report says.

“China and India must decide the extent to which they are willing and capable of playing increasing global roles and how each will relate to the other,” according to the report.

At the same time, Japan could be caught between U.S. and Chinese influence, while Russia could grow or stall, depending on economic decisions it makes. Meanwhile, Brazil is poised to gain in influence and wealth. The spread of influence could lead to larger global roles for countries such as Iran, Indonesia and Turkey.

The overall result will leave “less room for the U.S. to call the shots.” Even U.S. military power will be limited by others increasingly using irregular warfare tactics and the proliferation of long-range precision weapons.

Moreover, the document warns that the international alliances and networks that have dominated global affairs since the end of World War II “will be almost unrecognizable by 2025.”

For years, U.S. analysts have anticipated that China, India and other emerging economic powers would gain international influence. But the new report also warns of another possibly destabilizing dynamic.

“The relative power of non-state actors —- businesses, tribes, religious organizations and even criminal networks —- will grow as these groups influence decisions on a widening range of social, economic and political issues,” the report says.

The intelligence agencies compile reports on global trends every four years and have proven prescient in the past. In 2000, as George W. Bush was waiting to take office, a global trends report warned of the growing threats of large-scale terrorist strikes, noting that year’s attack on the U.S. warship Cole.

“Such asymmetric approaches —- whether undertaken by states or nonstate actors —- will become the dominant characteristic of most threats to the U.S. homeland,” the 2000 report said.

The report examines an array of global issues, from climate change to economic dislocation to Islamic radicalism.

On terrorism, the report offers a mixed verdict. It concludes that al-Qaida and other extremist terrorist groups face declining support across the Middle East and other Muslim nations.

But the document warns that terrorist organizations are likely to become more deadly because the spread of chemical and biological technologies “will place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach.”

The report concludes that al-Qaida is likely to pose a lasting threat to the United States and other Western nations. But it cites a view among some experts that al-Qaida “suffers from strategic weaknesses that could cause it to decay into marginality, perhaps shortening the life span of the Islamic terrorist wave.”

Analysts said that among the factors that could lead to such an outcome is al-Qaida’s lack of a compelling vision that moderate Muslims might favor.

Instead, the report characterizes al-Qaida’s tactics and objectives —- including the use of violence against Muslims, strict observance of Islamic law and the subjugation of women —- as factors that undermine its long-term viability.

“The appeal of terrorism is waning,” said Mathew Burrows, a member of the National Intelligence Council who played a leading role in the drafting of the report. “However, the lethality of terrorist groups is likely to grow.”

The report touches briefly on the unfolding global economic crisis, concluding that it is not likely to lead to an extended depression, but is nevertheless accelerating “the global economic rebalancing.”

The report “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” is available at www.dni.gov.