Electoral College: the real deciders

Winning the popular vote for president doesn’t automatically mean winning the election.

That’s because another vote actually determines the outcome: that of the Electoral College.

Americans got a distinct reminder of this peculiarity of their Constitution in 2000, when George W. Bush was able to claim an Electoral College victory even though Al Gore narrowly won the popular vote.

What is the Electoral College?

The Founding Fathers created the Electoral College as a compromise between those who favored direct election of the president and those who were concerned, among other things, that the masses couldn’t be trusted to make a wise decision and that the smaller states would not get a fair shake.

How does it work?

When voters cast their ballots in a presidential election, they are in fact voting for electors pledged to a particular candidate. The number of electors a state has equals its number of U.S. representatives and senators. In Georgia’s case, that’s 15 —- a number that has grown as Georgia’s population has increased its number of representatives.

After the general election, the electors meet to cast their ballots —- almost always in keeping with the desires expressed by their state’s voters, although they are not legally bound by the popular vote.

What is “electoral math”?

There are a total of 538 electors, and 270 are needed to win the presidency. Presidential campaigns first determine which states are safely within their column, then try to determine which states they must win to achieve the 270 total. Generally, that leads the campaigns to concentrate on selected states that polls show could be won by either candidate —- the so-called “swing states.” This year, for instance, Pennsylvania, which could go either way, has seen dozens of visits from the candidates, while Georgia —- which has voted Republican in most national elections since 1980 —- has had very few since its February primary.

Can the electoral vote contradict the popular vote?

Rarely. The aforementioned case in 2000 was the only one in recent history, and there is an ongoing argument that if the U.S. Supreme Court had not intervened and stopped a recount in disputed Florida, Gore might have won that state and its Electoral College votes, sending him to the White House instead of Bush.

The only case in which the Electoral College and the popular vote indisputably differed came in 1888, when President Grover Cleveland, seeking re-election, won the popular vote by 1 percentage point but lost in the electoral college by 65 votes to Benjamin Harrison. In one of the most dramatic turnarounds in presidential history, Cleveland returned four years later to beat Harrison and reclaim the White House.

How are electors divided?

Most states, including Georgia. award electors under the assumption that whoever wins a state gets all its electors. But two states —- Nebraska and Maine —- divide electors by congressional district. An effort to enact such a system in California failed to get enough signatures to be included on this November’s ballot.

Sources: “The Almanac of American Politics” and “The Handy Presidents Answer Book”

 Staff 
Two maps of the U.S. compare 2004 ELECTORAL VOTES to PROJECTED 2008 ELECTORAL VOTES.
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2004 ELECTORAL VOTES 
Map of the U.S. shows states colored red or blue to indicate which candidate received that state's electoral votes.
John Kerry (D): 251 votes* 
President Bush (R): 286 votes 
*1 vote cast for John Edwards  
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PROJECTED 2008 ELECTORAL VOTES 
Map of the U.S. shows states color coded to indicate which candidate is projected to receive that state's electoral votes.

Obama: 41 Lean; 53 Likely; 192 Safe; Total: 286 
McCain: 39 Lean; 42 Likely: 76 Safe; Total: 157 
Tossup: 95 

Based on polling through Saturday