POLL PUZZLEMENT

Two different polls released this week give radically different pictures of the presidential race.

ASSOCIATED PRESS/ GFK POLL

Barack Obama….44%

John McCain…..43%

Und./other……13%

METHOD: The poll surveyed 1,101 adults, including 800 likely voters, Oct. 16 through Monday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points. It included some who use only cell phones.

FINDINGS: The AP says the poll —- which shows an essentially tied race —- indicates the contest narrowed after the third presidential debate last week as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and John McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy struck a chord. It also found that voters who support McCain are more committed to him than they were previously.

An AP-GfK poll three weeks ago showed Obama with a seven-point lead.

WALL STREET JOURNAL/NBC NEWS POLL

Barack Obama….52%

John McCain…..42%

Und./other…….6%

METHOD: The poll surveyed 1,159 registered voters Friday through Monday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. It included some who use only cell phones.

FINDINGS: The Wall Street Journal says the poll —- which for the first time showed Barack Obama with a double-digit lead —- shows that voters have become more comfortable with the idea of Obama as president, despite their perception that John McCain has more experience. It also found that voters were increasingly skeptical of McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released Oct. 6 gave Obama a 6-point lead.

WHICH POLL?

Both of these polls are what are called “outliers” —- that is, their findings are outside the mainstream. Other major polls conducted in the same period gave Obama leads ranging from four to nine points. One —- conducted by Zogby International for Reuters and CSPAN —- concurred with the Wall Street Journal/NBC News 10-point spread, and another, by the Pew Research Center, gave Obama a 14-point lead. A third, conducted by George Washington University, was closer to the AP finding, at 2 points.

Because of differing sampling methods, it is impossible to establish a true “average” of polls, but the most recent median finding, according to the poll-tracking Web site realclearpolitics.com, is a 6.8 point advantage for Obama.

WHO’S VOTING?

The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll interviewed all registered voters, while the Associated Press-GfK poll surveyed only those identified as “likely” to vote. Early indications are that many “unlikely” voters —- those who do not have a regular record of voting and who are not usually engaged in the political process —- are turning out for early voting.

A FINAL WORD

Nate Silver, whose poll tracking Web site fivethirtyeight.com has been one of the big hits of this election season, says this about polls that return findings far outside the mainstream when many other polls are available: “Generally speaking, with this much data to look at, the rule of thumb is that when a poll looks like an outlier, it probably is one.”