McCain’s Georgia lead holds with likely voters

John McCain leads Barack Obama in Georgia by 6 percentage points among voters likely to participate in the Nov. 4 general election, according to a CNN poll released Wednesday.

The poll, of 718 likely voters, was conducted Oct. 11-14 by Opinion Research Corp., the network’s polling partner, and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. It found McCain leading 51 percent to 45 percent for Obama and 4 percent for Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr, the former Cobb County congressman.

It is the first poll of the state by a major media outlet since the presidential primaries in February. It nearly mirrors the 51.2 percent to 44.2 percent lead McCain enjoys in an averaging of all Georgia polls. It is similar to the 8-point lead found in a poll released earlier this week by SurveyUSA.

The race is tighter when the poll is expanded to registered voters.

In that case, McCain leads by 3 percentage points, meaning the race could be tied, given the margin of 3 percentage points for registered voters.

The difference between “registered” and “likely” voters is important. Pollsters typically believe using likely voters is more accurate this close to an election. How a voter is tagged as likely is subject of debate among pollsters. Poll respondents who say they have voted before and plan to vote this year are included. But that would not include newly registered voters. Obama’s campaign has made registering new voters a major part of its grass-roots campaign.

CNN did not release details on how those polled were screened as likely voters.

CNN released two versions of the poll, one that included Barr and one that did not. When the race is limited to McCain and Obama, McCain’s lead is 8 points among likely voters, 53 percent to 45 percent, and 4 points among registered voters, 51 percent to 47 percent.