Congressional races to watch on election night

Who’s laughing? The latest Rasmussen poll in Minnesota shows comedian Al Franken trailing in his bid to unseat GOP Sen. Norm Coleman. Coleman polled 43 percent late last week to Franken’s 39 percent. Complicating the race for both is a strong showing by Independent candidate Dean Barkley (14 percent).

Tough ticket: Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, will face an uphill Election Day against his Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Stevens was found guilty of federal corruption charges Monday, just eight days before the election.

Cousins campaign: Both the Udall cousins are holding double-digit leads in the polls in their bid to claim Senate seats being vacated by Republicans. U.S. Rep. Mark Udall (D-Colo.), son of Morris, is out in front in his race against Republican Bob Schaffer for Colorado’s open seat —- to the point that the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee reportedly pulled its ads out of Colorado because, The Denver Post says, the DSCC thinks Udall has it sewn up. Udall’s cousin Tom is running for the Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici in New Mexico. The latest Real Clear Politics analysis gives him a lead of 16 percentage points.

Carolina blues? U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.), seeking a second term, is unexpectedly trailing Kay Hagan, a Democratic state senator and former banker. Real Clear Politics’ numbers show Hagan up by 5 percentage points.

Brothers in distress? House Republicans Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart are locked in tight and nasty races in Florida. Lincoln’s ads have branded Democrat Raul Martinez as “the most corrupt politician you’ll ever see in your life.” Mario has also run attack ads against his Democratic challenger, Joe Garcia. Observers point out that the nastiness is not one-way in either case.

In the running: Three gay candidates for the House —- Denver millionaire Jared Polis and incumbents Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) —- are expected to win handily Tuesday. But Linda Ketner, running in South Carolina’s 1st District (Charleston area), is trailing in her bid to unseat GOP U.S. Rep. Henry Brown. Ketner has not discussed her sexuality in the campaign but has focused on her ability and experience.

Will it leave a mark? U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) made headlines two weeks ago by worrying that Barack Obama “may have anti-American views” and suggesting that the media investigate some members of Congress for their views. National Journal’s Hotline reported last week that Bachmann is suddenly neck and neck with former state transportation official Elwyn Tinklenberg.