Slowly, green shoots of optimism appear

In battle, sports, business and other areas of life, faith in leadership can get you through bad times. The instinct to rally around a leader is genetic, a tribal survival mechanism honed over generations.

The effects of that instinct could be seen in the results of an Associated Press poll last week. For the first time in five years, a plurality of Americans said the country is now moving in the right direction.

JAY BOOKMAN
MY OPINION

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Given that we have 6 million unemployed, Chrysler is reportedly about to announce bankruptcy, GM is closing most of its plants over the summer and the stock market continues to wallow at levels 40 percent off its peak, that number is impressive. It means that for the moment at least, President Obama is providing the reassuring leadership people seek in tough times, much as FDR did through the Great Depression. (The American people, right and left. rallied in similar fashion to President Bush in the wake of 9/11, becoming disenchanted only after the botched occupation of Iraq and the ineffective response to Katrina.)

The AP poll also demonstrated why Republicans are having such a hard time countering Obama.

For example, conservative Republicans in Congress are voting en bloc against Obama’s economic strategy, but according to AP that tactic draws an approval rating of only 29 percent, with just 7 percent saying they “strongly approve.”

Republicans also try to depict Obama as weak, but according to AP, 76 percent believe otherwise, saying the president is a strong leader. Just 23 percent agree with the GOP critique.

How about the first lady, once viewed as a vulnerable target? She has an unfavorable rating of 8 percent.

Attacks on the president’s intelligence and competence also don’t seem to make headway — 79 percent say Obama understands at least somewhat the major issues confronting the country.

And while some conservatives argue that the economic crisis isn’t as bad as Obama and most experts claim, 91 percent of Americans reject that analysis, saying the state of the economy is very or extremely important to them personally.

In other words, nothing has any traction at the moment. It’s just too early to be in all-out attack mode, in large part because Obama hasn’t done anything to make such an attack effective or even legitimate. And yet the Republicans are on the attack anyway, even if they’re armed with nothing.

In part, that strategy is being driven by anger, but market factors also play a role. Thanks to a vacuum in elected GOP leadership, the conservative movement is being led by commercial rather than political interests. Rush Limbaugh and Fox News reap great profit by stirring up the base, regardless of whether the timing might be right politically. Even those Republicans who know better don’t dare speak up out of fear of being banished from favor.

It’s not as if the American people are totally sold on Obama. Is the president’s stimulus package working? Fifty-seven percent told AP it’s too early to tell. Is Obama keeping his promise to change things in Washington? Fifty-four percent say it’s too early to tell.

And that’s just the point: It is too early to tell. While an overwhelming majority of Americans want Obama to succeed and are willing to give him a chance, they’re not yet convinced.

However, group dynamics and human nature being what they are, they also don’t take kindly to those trying to undercut the national leadership so early in the process, and for no good reason.

Slowly, Americans are daring to hope — for example, increasing numbers say this is a good time to invest in the stock market (41 percent now vs. 33 percent in December) or real estate (64 percent now, 56 percent in December). The fact that 48 percent now say the country is headed in the right direction is an excellent example of hope triumphing over economic statistics.

In sports terms, most of the country is gathered in the huddle, looking to the quarterback for the play, wanting to have faith that he’s going to lead them down the field and into the end zone in a great comeback.

And they really resent the folks on the sideline — people who are supposedly on the same team but were benched for incompetence — chanting “It’ll never work, it’ll never work” even before the play is run.