SOUTHERN POLITICAL FORUM: What to watch for

John Geer, distinguished professor of political science, Vanderbilt University

With both conventions over, John McCain and Barack Obama will now begin the battle over who is best able to introduce “new politics” to Washington. But to do so, they will use the “old politics” of attack and counter-attack. With the high stakes and the stark differences between them, voters should expect a very negative campaign —- perhaps the most negative in the modern era. Such a harsh campaign will be criticized by the news media as uninformative. But this assessment misses the point. Attacks provide voters important information. Consider one of the central questions in this election: Is Obama ready to lead America? Obama, of course, says the answer is yes. But McCain says no. Imagine if voters heard only Obama’s answer. Citizens need to hear both sides to be able to cast informed ballots.

Expect lots of negativity in the coming weeks, but remember that these often nasty exchanges actually increase the odds Americans will make the right choice this November.

Andra Gillespie, assistant professor of political science, Emory University

This is clearly an historic election. With an African-American at the top of the Democratic ticket and a woman in the No. 2 slot on the Republican ticket, voters will undoubtedly make an unprecedented choice. However, this election will be remembered for much more than the election of a black or a woman. Working-class whites —- particularly those from small-town America —- have always been the swing vote. The selection of Sarah Palin and Joe Biden as running mates only underscores both campaigns’ desire to court this segment of the electorate.

The irony is that blacks and other reliable Democratic voting blocs could end up being marginalized. Campaigns necessarily focus attention and resources on swing voters. Moreover, many blacks are concentrated in reliably Republican states. If blacks in swing states do not turn out in unprecedented numbers, though, it could spell trouble for the Democrats.

Audrey Haynes, associate professor, School of Public and International Affairs, University of Georgia

If one could imagine the “to do” list of the Obama and McCain campaigns at this moment, it would look fairly similar: Raise money. Get the message out. Mobilize voters.

The most critical aspect of the campaigns’ strategies is message and agenda control. Whoever can dominate the discourse of the campaign and set the agenda for what this campaign is going to be about will have the advantage. For Obama, getting his message out before McCain’s campaign can define the message is critical. What is this campaign going to be about? Eight years of Republican governance and budget deficits, increasing unemployment, high gas prices? Or experience? Security issues? The economy? Patriotism? Each campaign has its own strategic preference for the dominant issue. Their ability to influence what the voters think this election is about is critically important.

This election could be a very close one, and weak partisans and independents will matter. I believe both campaigns are looking very closely at focus groups to see what types of appeals will work with them. In an election that is likely to be this close, we should get ready for two months of potentially negative advertising. McCain’s campaign has gone negative earlier and done more, and it is likely to continue. Obama, as the frontrunner, has been “responding” to negative ads more so than initiating them, but this may change as the race narrows.

David Lanoue, professor of political science, University of Alabama

We have reached the point in the campaign where public opinion begins to harden somewhat. The partisans have largely returned to the fold and now the election will hinge on a handful of undecided voters in a small number of swing states. The McCain campaign will continue their focus on white working-class Democrats and independents in places like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, framing Obama as a risky choice, untested and out of the mainstream. For his part, Obama will redouble efforts to link McCain with the unpopular incumbent administration and its policies. There are, of course, two remaining wild cards. First, if one candidate shines (or fails) in the presidential debates, the result could be a small but game-changing blip in the polls. Second, if Obama’s unprecedented voter mobilization efforts bear fruit, some unexpected states may turn out to be in play (Virginia, North Carolina, perhaps even Georgia).

David W. Rohde, Ernestine Friedl professor of political science, Duke University

National polls indicate this election will be close. Among the factors that will influence the result are two that raise questions about the reliability of current polling data. One of these is the so-called “Bradley effect.” Named for former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a black Democrat who ran for California governor in 1982, it suggests that some potential voters for McCain tell pollsters that they intend to vote for Obama because they are worried that they would be perceived as racist if they responded truthfully. If real, this effect would mean McCain is stronger than he appears. The other factor involves the need for polls to identify likely voters. In previous elections, GOP supporters were more likely to turn out than those who were pro-Democrat. Due to the potential for greater Democratic mobilization of black and young voters, the set of actual voters may be significantly different from what the pollsters expect. This could mean Obama is stronger than he looks.

—- Edited by Tom Sabulis, tsabulis@ajc.com