Napa frost chills wine forecast

Napa, Calif. —- Bob Milat has been in the wine business in one way or another for about 50 years. Never does he remember an autumn quite as bad as this one.

Grape production at his little 20-acre vineyard in Napa Valley is down by more than 35 percent. Some grape varieties, such as those he grows for popular zinfandel wines, are down more than 50 percent. He picked so few grapes this year that his Milat Winery didn’t have enough to make some types of wines.

“Everybody is hurting,” Milat said as he walked along a row of just-picked vines on a recent afternoon.

As the harvest season nears its end here in the nation’s winemaking capital, many vineyards are discovering that the worst frost in 30 years, back in April, followed by months of high temperatures, drought and fires, are making this one of the worst seasons ever for grape production.

As a result, consumers nationwide could see higher prices and fewer bargains for some types of domestic wines, industry observers say.

Don’t start crying in your syrah just yet. Nobody is predicting a shortage of good vino, especially with imports from Australia, South America and elsewhere still flooding the market.

But you may soon have to pay a couple of extra dollars per bottle, especially for higher-priced wines —- more than $20 a bottle —- and the lowest-priced, those that bring less than $5. The areas of California that grow grapes for wines in those price ranges were hit hardest by the frost and foul weather that followed, according to wine industry experts.

Since winemakers elsewhere often get at least some of their grapes and juices from California, other states could be affected, too.

“It may cause us some challenges,” said Dacota Haselwood, executive director of the Texas Wine and Grape Growers Association.

Even in a good year, Texas winemakers typically get about 25 percent of their juice stock and grapes from other states, including California, Haselwood said. And this wasn’t a good year for Texas grapes. Cold weather and hail damaged the Texas crop, which means some Lone Star State winemakers may need more out-of-state grapes than usual.

Georgia winemakers also sometimes import California grapes and juices to augment their own supplies. Georgia grape growers generally had a good crop this year.

“But we’ll obviously be keeping an eye [on California] when it comes to pricing in terms of what we may need in the future,” said Steve Gibson, general manager of the Habersham Winery in Helen and president of the Winegrowers Association of Georgia.

California produces about 85 percent of the nation’s grapes and wine, dwarfing every other state. Golden State vineyards contain about 800,000 acres of grapes, compared with about 2,900 acres in Texas, 2,300 acres in Ohio and 1,100 acres in Georgia, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

It’s not that Mother Nature hurt every California grape grower this year. Some of the state’s wine-growing regions went completely unscathed. Others suffered only slightly.

About halfway through its harvest, giant winemaker Kendall-Jackson is predicting its grape yields will be off 5 percent to 10 percent, according to company spokesman George Rose.

Hall Wines in Napa Valley, owned by Dallas businessman and former Dallas Cowboys co-owner Craig Hall, is expecting a similar decline.

Hall Wines President Mike Reynolds considers himself among the lucky ones in Napa Valley.

“In certain parts of the valley, some people didn’t get hurt at all,” Reynolds said. “In other places, they got wiped out completely.”

Exactly how bad California’s grape harvest will be this year won’t be known for at least a few more weeks, when vineyards finish the picking they started in September. The state doesn’t release its annual grape crush report until February.

Steve Fredricks, managing partner of Turrentine Brokerage, a wine and grape broker, predicts overall grape production in the Napa and Sonoma regions to be down by 10 percent to 30 percent.

Simple supply and demand means something’s got to give, he said.

“There is certainly going to be increased pressure for people to raise prices” for both grapes and wine, Fredricks said.

GREAT GRAPES

California is home to about 85 percent of the nation’s 939,250 acres of grapes. A grape shortage in California this year could affect wine and grape prices nationwide.

Top growing states

California, 797,000 acres

Washington, 56,500

New York, 34,000

Other growing states

Texas 2,900 acres

Ohio, 2,300

North Carolina, 1,400

Georgia, 1,100

Notes: Includes both table grapes and wine grape acreage, 2007. In California, about 60 percent of all grapes are used for wine.

Source: USDA, WineAmerica