Market slams Home Depot
'Underperform' rating from brokerage house sends shares to 5 1/2-year low.


The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 07/02/08

Home Depot's stock hit its lowest point in 5 1/2 years during trading Tuesday after a New York-based analyst for Merrill Lynch rated the shares as "underperform."

The stock traded as low as $22.52, the lowest price since it closed at $20.53 on Jan. 28, 2003. By the time trading ended, the shares had regained some ground, closing at $23.21 —- the lowest since March 13, 2003.

Lowe's stock also took a dive on Tuesday after Merrill Lynch analyst Alan Rifkin told investors that the "unprecedented" U.S. housing market decline is "too much to overcome" for the nation's two largest home improvement retailers.

Home Depot does not comment on its stock price.

Merrill Lynch recommended that investors sell shares of Atlanta-based Home Depot and Mooresville, N.C.-based Lowe's, saying the housing environment may deteriorate for the rest of the year.

Home Depot and Lowe's are rivals in the business of selling lumber and do-it-yourself supplies. But both companies are getting hammered, so to speak, as their sales decline because of high inventories of housing and jitters in lending that are making it difficult for consumers to get credit for homes and home improvements.

Rifkin explained that he only sees more pain in the near future.

"We see the difficult housing environment worsening throughout 2008," he wrote. "Continued pressure on housing prices, contagion from metro to rural markets, record foreclosures, an inventory glut and rising delinquencies are all negatives. Tighter lending standards and inflationary pressures are also taking a toll. Housing must first stabilize before Home Depot's [and Lowe's] business fundamentals can improve."

Since the beginning of the year, Home Depot's stock has declined 12.5 percent. Also, 22.2 million shares changed hands Tuesday, higher than the average of 16.3 million shares. The stock hit a 52-week high on July 12 last year, when it closed at $40.94.

Lowe's stock also took a dive Tuesday, closing at $20.61 after bottoming at $19.95 during the day. Trading volume also was above average at 16.3 million.

Merrill Lynch's Rifkin told clients he applauded Home Depot's "efforts to focus on retail, control costs, rationalize stores and invest in existing stores," as well as improve the shopping experience.

"However," he wrote, "we believe that macro head winds of an unprecedented fall in every housing-related metric are too much to overcome. We await evidence of stabilization before becoming more positive."

Merrill Lynch's 12-month price target is $22 for Home Depot and $20 for Lowe's. Merrill Lynch was reinitiating coverage of both stocks with the reports.

Morgan Keegan and BMO Capital also have rated Home Depot stock as "underperform." Stifel Nicolaus, Banc of America and Edward Jones, by contrast, recommend buying the stock.

 CHARLES W. JONES / Staff 
STEEP DECLINE 
The stock closed at a 5-year low Tuesday after an analyst downgraded the stock, citing a weak housing market. 
Line graph shows price of Home Depot stock from 2003 to present.
2003: $20.53
Tuesday's close: $23.21 
Source: Yahoo Finance 

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