To say that Democrats have not fared well in Georgia in recent years would be a considerable understatement. In fact, few states have been as bad for Democrats. Al Gore lost Georgia by 12 points in 2000 and John Kerry lost the state by 17 points in 2004. Bill Clinton was the last Democrat to carry Georgia in a presidential election, back in 1992. Four years later, even as he was sweeping to an easy re-election win, Clinton narrowly lost the state to Bob Dole. Today Georgia is one of only a handful of states with a Republican governor, two Republican senators and both houses of its state Legislature controlled by Republicans.

Given this history, it's understandable that Georgia Republicans, along with the AJC's Jim Wooten, are skeptical about statements by some political commentators and Democratic strategists that Sen. Barack Obama has a real chance to carry Georgia in the 2008 presidential election. Wooten has gone so far as to dismiss this belief as delusional, citing polling and voter registration data to back up his assertion that Georgia will once again be comfortably in the GOP column in November. According to Wooten, polls show Republican John McCain with a solid lead over Obama, and increases in African-American registration this year are in line with those seen during the 2004 campaign.

But a closer look at the evidence indicates that the outlook for McCain in the Peach State may not be as rosy as Wooten suggests.

There have been six polls on the presidential race in Georgia since the beginning of May and John McCain has led Barack Obama in every one of them. But McCain's average margin in these polls is only seven points. That's down considerably from George Bush's margin in 2004. And lest anyone think that there's something funny about the polls in Georgia, Obama is also doing much better than either Gore or Kerry in several other Southern states. According to polling data compiled by Realclearpolitics.com, McCain is leading Obama by only six points in South Carolina and by only four points in North Carolina. And Obama is currently leading McCain by one point in Virginia, a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964.

Voter registration data also show a long-term trend that should be worrisome for Georgia Republicans. The white percentage of the state's electorate has been steadily shrinking. In January 2001, according to data supplied by the Georgia Secretary of State's office, whites made up 72 percent of active voters in Georgia. Today, whites make up only 65 percent of active voters. Meanwhile, the African-American share of active voters has gone up from just under 26 percent to just over 28 percent, and the proportion of active voters in all other categories has increased from just over 2 percent to almost 7 percent. Higher birth rates among racial and ethnic minorities, immigration and rising citizenship rates among residents of Hispanic and Asian origin virtually guarantee that these trends will continue for the foreseeable future.

It will be difficult for Obama to carry Georgia this year. But if Obama can keep McCain's margin below 10 points here, it will almost certainly mean that he is winning in most of the rest of the country, and it may force Republicans to devote scarce campaign resources to Georgia. And even if Democrats don't carry Georgia this year, demographic trends indicate that Republican strength in the state is likely to diminish over time. By 2012, a President Obama could be in a strong position to carry Georgia.

> Alan I. Abramowitz is a professor of political science at Emory University.