Georgia Dems hopeful Obama will give them a boost in Statehouse


The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 04/27/08

For months, Georgia Democrats have crowed that 2008 is the year they "caught lightning in a bottle."

They must begin proving it when qualifying begins Monday for state and federal elections, because no matter how much excitement Barack Obama has brought the party, it won't matter if they don't have candidates to take advantage of it.

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While the nomination fight is not over, many Georgia Democrats believe Obama will prevail and help them in November. State Rep. Rob Teilhet (D-Smyrna), the man charged with leading candidate recruitment for House Democrats, said Obama has already given the party a lift.

"We're seeing a lot of enthusiasm for our candidates that we haven't seen in past cycles."

Boosting Democratic hopes is the fact that many Georgia Republicans are saying publicly and privately that they are concerned about Obama's influence on the November elections and about the impact their own very public infighting will have on their base.

All of this has likely made Teilhet's job easier than it would have been in past years. In 2006, the last time the 180 House seats were up for election, 129 races were uncontested, meaning there was only one candidate on the ballot. Of the remaining 51 races, only 10 were competitive, meaning the outcome was decided by about 10 percentage points.

While Teilhet declined to discuss specifics of the party's strategy, he said the party has identified 30 to 35 House districts that "are either competitive or may become competitive."

"We've got gains that can be made in urban and suburban parts of the state," he said, adding that there are districts in Middle and South Georgia "that are particularly ripe for an Obama candidacy."

There are currently 107 Republicans in the House and 72 Democrats, with one seat vacant. The Democrats would need a net gain of 19 seats to gain control of the House. In the Senate, Republicans have 34 seats and Democrats have 22.

In past elections, Republicans have had superior organization and superior campaign tools, which helped the GOP take control of state politics at almost every level. This year, Democrats believe that might be changing. The party has what's known as "Vote Builder," a high-tech system of tracking registered voters, voter contact and demographic data that the party has lacked. The system, created by a company called Voter ActivationNetwork, allows Democrats to do the kind of "micro-targeting" that Republicans have excelled at for years. The system allows candidates or the party to bore down into demographic data and identify voter trends and the issues that are important on an almost house-by-house basis.

The Obama campaign added thousands of names and contact information to the Georgia file.

"All of our candidates who are using Vote Builder over the course of their races means we'll be that much further ahead going into 2010," said Martin Matheny, spokesman for the Democratic Party of Georgia.

And it's not just about legislative races. Democrats believe this will benefit them in the races for the U.S. Senate and House. The party plans a news conference for Monday to introduce voters to four military veterans who are running for Congress as Democrats in Georgia.

Republicans in Georgia are well aware of what Obama can mean here, DeKalb County GOP Chairman Jamie Sibold said.

Sibold said Georgia Republicans have reason to be concerned. The party must rise to the new challenge.

"I personally do think it's crucial," he said. "I don't see any other group right now, other than the DeKalb Republican Party, that's interested in going out to generate enthusiasm among Republicans."

The base will be there, said Ben Fry, executive director of the Georgia Republican Party.

"Time and time again we have shown we have the ability to turn out our voters and get them to the polls," Fry said. "Our folks are ready to do this again. Our base is going to be energized and excited."

Sibold is not taking any chances. He said he won't let controversies over Obama's comments about Pennsylvania voters, or the controversy over his former pastor's rhetoric, lull him into thinking that an Obama bounce won't materialize.

"I'm going to pretend it's a tie game in the middle of the fourth quarter," he said. "I'm going to register every Republican I can. I am going to turn them out on Election Day."

Sibold began that work this weekend, when he personally hosted a voter-registration drive at the Eastman Gun Show in Norcross. While voter registration is a nonpartisan affair, Sibold figured the gun show would be full of Second Amendment supporters who tend to skew Republican.

Sibold planned this six weeks ago. It's just a happy coincidence that Obama offended many gun owners by telling a group of donors that struggling Pennsylvanians "cling" to their guns and religion.

"He just happened to open his trap and tick off gun people," Sibold said.

George Wilson of Stone Mountain believes Obama remains a positive influence.

Wilson, 65, ran for state House District 95 in 2006 as a Democrat and lost to incumbent Rep. Robert Mumford (R-Conyers) by about 500 votes. Wilson is running again and believes Obama could help.

"Obama at the top would be a plus," Wilson said. "We got so close."

Mumford told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution last week that he had not yet decided whether to stand for re-election. By later in the week, however, he made up his mind: He's not running. Efforts to reach Mumford on Friday were unsuccessful. Before deciding to retire, however, Mumford said he was not concerned about the impact Obama could have on his race.

Rep. Katie Dempsey (R-Rome) planned to announce this weekend that she'll seek re-election to House District 13 in Floyd County. She beat Bob Puckett there in 2006 by just 168 votes in the closest legislative race in all of Georgia.

She is concerned, but not panicked, that Obama could help her eventual opponent. Puckett has announced that he, too, will run again.

"It could affect me greatly," Dempsey said.

And while Clinton carried Floyd County in the presidential primary, Dempsey represents the city of Rome itself, where much of the county's Democratic vote is centered. Dempsey said she is excited about returning to Atlanta and said her work the past two years has been significant. She was named a deputy House whip as a freshman.

"Certainly, the House of Representatives faces a lot of challenges and not all are party-related," she said. "I'm so excited about going back, I'm going to try my best and be the very first person in line to qualify."

University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock believes 2008 could be the year Georgia Democrats learn whether they are ready to compete again.

"The word is kind of out," Bullock said. "The excitement, the enthusiasm that has been with the Democrats throughout this primary season will probably result in them getting better-quality candidates."

The first sign will come this week.

"We're going to see how far up they've moved on the learning curve," Bullock said. "2008 may be a sign of whether they have lost enough elections to get serious."

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