Primary best way for party to choose

By Alan Abramowitz

Some Democratic strategists believe the only way for Georgia Democrats to succeed in 2010 is to avoid a contested primary and unite around Roy Barnes for governor. They cite the 2006 gubernatorial primary in which Mark Taylor and Cathy Cox fought a tough battle. Hard feelings remained between the two, and these strategists say it prevented Democrats from uniting behind Taylor in the fall campaign.

However, this line of reasoning is highly questionable. In 2006 Georgians were generally satisfied with state government and its leaders. Gov. Sonny Perdue enjoyed strong approval ratings, the economy was good and there was little reason for voters to switch to the Democrats. Public opinion polls indicated it was unlikely either Taylor or Cox could have defeated Perdue even if one of them had been handed the nomination on a silver platter.

But times have changed. After eight years of Republican control, many of the problems facing Georgia have grown worse. Public schools have some of the lowest test scores and highest dropout rates in the nation, our transportation infrastructure is inadequate and deteriorating, water problems have not been effectively addressed, and traffic congestion in metro Atlanta gets worse. Many businesses are hesitant to relocate or expand in Georgia, and the state has an unemployment rate well above the national average. Georgia’s next governor will have to address all of these urgent problems.

With so much at stake, Democrats want to make sure they nominate their strongest possible candidate. There is strong evidence that the best way to do that is not by having a handful of party leaders anoint a candidate, but by letting Democratic primary voters listen to all the candidates, then choose the nominee.

Georgia elections provide convincing evidence that a competitive primary is the best way to nominate a candidate for governor. In 1990, Zell Miller fought off Andy Young, Roy Barnes and Bubba McDonald in the Democratic primary and went on to serve two terms as governor. Roy Barnes himself won the Democratic nomination in a competitive primary in 1998. After defeating Lewis Massey, David Poythress and three others in the primary, Barnes won a decisive victory over Republican Guy Millner in the general election.

In those elections, a spirited primary contest energized the Democratic base and produced a strong nominee. And let’s not forget that Sonny Perdue won the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2002 by defeating the better known state school superintendant, Linda Schrenko, and Cobb County Commission chairman Bill Byrne in a competitive primary. Perdue went on to score one of the biggest upsets in Georgia political history by defeating Barnes in the 2002 general election.

Research by political scientists has found that a tough primary battle typically does not hurt a party’s chances of winning the general election. That only happens when the primary involves an already unpopular incumbent. When there is no incumbent, a competitive primary can actually increase the visibility of the party’s candidates and produce a stronger eventual nominee — one who has responded effectively to the sorts of attacks that are inevitable in a general election campaign.

Democrats have solid choices and all their candidates for governor deserve a chance to make their case to the voters. The best way to choose their strongest candidate for governor next year is in a competitive primary.

Alan Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University.