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Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Tuesday’s lesson for 2010
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
After all that, the results from the runoff for the U.S. Senate seat held by Georgia’s Saxby Chambliss was about what it would have been had nobody spent a dime.
Thanks go to the partisan and to the advocacy groups for aiding the Georgia economy with their campaign stimulus checks. But the surprise in politics sometimes is how little money matters after the candidates and the stakes become known.
In this race, both incumbent Saxby Chambliss and challenger Jim Martin were sufficiently known and the stakes were more widely known to Georgians than the charges that put Michael Vick in the slammer were to dog lovers. Had Democrats gained a 60-seat filibuster-proof Senate, lower taxes, less government and center-right judges would have faced the prospects of a losing pit bull in Vick’s kennel. (Hey, different subject, but I’m ready to let Vick go; he’s paid a high price already.)
When the votes were counted in the U.S. Senate race where tons of bigwigs politicked and tons of money was spent, the outcome was essentially the Republican base vs. the Democratic base. In any statewide election, the Republican with any name-recognition should get 55 percent and the Democrat, 45. The GOP is the majority party, with a base of about 50. Democrats are 40-42. The candidates add or subtract a few percentage points.
For the seat on the Georgia Public Service Commission, a race that did not attract money or attention, Republican Lauren McDonald pulled 56.5 to 43.5 for Democrat Jim Powell.
Two messages can be drawn from the voting Tuesday and three weeks ago. One is that Barack Obama was wise not to return to Georgia for the runoff. He couldn’t have made a difference in the outcome.
The more important message is sent to Democrats planning to run for governor or for the U.S. Senate in Georgia in 2010. Under the best of circumstances, with a candidate at the top of the ticket who inspired masses of new voters, Democrats still could not carry the state in a presidential election. And, coming off that General Election, with organization and money to burn, they could not break out of the mid 40s. Barring scandal or some extraordinary turn, their prospects are not promising for 2010
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