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Predictions from conservative gathering
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
On Election Day a number of conservative journalists — yes, we exist — gathered with some like-minded political junkies for an extended visit to talk about Georgia, the future of the conservative movement, and whether John McCain has put it together.
Here are some of the conversation topics:
Is Georgia in play? Yes. An early clue as to whether Barack Obama can put it together here will come from Cobb County and from Gwinnett. If Obama comes out of those two counties with 45 percent of the vote, it could happen. The consensus of the gathering was that McCain wins Georgia, 51-48.
A runoff for U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss. The senator had said in a conversation last week that his lead over Democrat Jim Martin was widening. While he did not offer numbers, the group gathered today thinks he’s in good shape. A late poll had him at 48 to 39 for Martin and 5 for the Libertarian, according to one of commentators present.
The only Congressional race that prompted a great deal of discussion was the 8th in Middle Georgia, where incumbent Jim Marshall is being challenged by Republican Rick Goddard. At issue was whether the Chambliss turn-out-the-vote effort in his old House district could pull Goodard over the top. If there’s a sleeper upset, it’s here.
In the Georgia House and Senate, little change is expected. The betting is that the Georgia Senate finishes the day unchanged at 34-22 GOP, while in the House Democrats make a net gain of only 3 seats. One Democratic race thought to be in play is State Rep. Jeanette Jamison of Toccoa, the former chairman of the House Education Committee. Concern was expressed that State Reps. Thunder Tumlin of Marietta and Allen Freeman of Macon, both Republicans, could be in real trouble.
In the crowded race for the open seat on the Georgia Court of Appeals, bet on a runoff between Tamela Adkins, a Gwinnett County family practice lawyer, and either Atlanta lawyer Bruce Edenfield or former State Sen. Perry McGuire.
McCain or Obama? The group was evenly split.
A filibuster-proof Senate? No.
And your predictions?




DEL.ICIO.US

Comments
By I VOTED!!!!
November 4, 2008 3:32 PM | Link to this
McCain will win Ga. but not by much. Runoff between Chambliss & Martin. Marshall to win Ga house - pretty much the same Not sure about the Court of Appeals Obama nationally by a landslide Close to 60, but the democrats will have the power for the most part. Not too many republicans can overcome what Bush has done to the party. the sad part, Ga is still red and isn’t changing. Don’t you guys see what has happened to this state? We are in the bottom 10 in education (behind alabama for heaven’s sake!), we have been predicted tohave the worst unemployment by fall of next year, we are going to pot - and we still don’t change! What a shame.
By Thespis
November 4, 2008 3:33 PM | Link to this
In short….
My gut says Georgia is not in play but these large turnouts may prove us all wrong.
I do think there will be a run off in the Senate race and if the libertarians and the disenchanted conservatives either jump ship or sit this out then we may have a new Senator.
I don’t think the balance of power in the State House will change regardless of what is happening around the nation.
Tamela Adkins looks good in the Court race. I know this is a strange criteria but the fact that her name is at the top of the list in a race for such an unfamiliar bunch of candidates plays to her advantage.
Obama
No Filibuster proof Senate.
By Big Papa
November 4, 2008 3:36 PM | Link to this
It must be tough for Jim Wooten being the Elizabeth Hasselbeck of the AJC Editorial Board.
McCain squeaks by in GA (51-47) Chambliss in a run-off. (Which he wins.)
I pray that the Republicans hold 41. But considering the “Challenge” that Joe Biden predicts, it won’t matter if Obama doesn’t respond in an appropriate manner.
God help us all.
By Big Papa
November 4, 2008 3:38 PM | Link to this
It must be tough for Jim Wooten being the Elizabeth Hasselbeck of the AJC Editorial Board.
McCain squeaks by in GA (51-47) Chambliss in a run-off. (Which he wins.)
I pray that the Republicans hold 41. But considering the “Challenge” that Joe Biden predicts, it won’t matter if Obama doesn’t respond in an appropriate manner.
God help us all.
By Dusty
November 4, 2008 3:39 PM | Link to this
CONSERVATIVE JOURNALISTS? ALL TWO OF YOU??
Well, whatever you say, Jim, in predictions.
As for me, I don’t have a journalist in the house or a crystal ball.
Now, let me go see if my McCain sign in the front yard has been shotup yet. That the is best predictor I have around here. I’ll let you know how it looks.
By Big Papa
November 4, 2008 3:40 PM | Link to this
It must be tough for Jim Wooten being the Elizabeth Hasselbeck of the AJC Editorial Board.
McCain squeaks by in GA (51-47) Chambliss in a run-off. (Which he wins.)
I pray that the Republicans hold 41. But considering the “Challenge” that Joe Biden predicts, it won’t matter if Obama doesn’t respond in an appropriate manner.
God help us all.
By FOX/GOP Management
November 4, 2008 3:53 PM | Link to this
Looks like “O” wins nationally,and Martin wins locally…panic has set in for Jim Wooten.
F-Word Network/GOP Management
By I'll play
November 4, 2008 3:54 PM | Link to this
McCain narrowly wins Georgia (49-47).
There will be a runoff between Chambliss and Martin, won by Martin after a newly elected Obama comes down to campaign for him.
Marshall beats Goddard by about six points (would be more, if Marshall hadn’t voted for the bailout).
Georgia House and Senate remain about the same.
US Senate: no fillibuster-proof majority. Dems take AK, NM, CO, OR, NH, VA, NC (and after a runoff, GA). Republicans keep MN, KY, MS.
Court of appeals: Adkins cause she’s first on the ballot, and who knows who else. Edenfield and McGuire are good bets.
Obama wins presidency, with narrow electoral college edge. It may even be 269-269 if Obama takes Penn, and NM and McCain takes OH, FL, VA, CO. In which case, it goes to Obama.
By CDog
November 4, 2008 4:00 PM | Link to this
GA is low in SAT score (not education) because the size of its black population (30%). Blacks score far lower that whites on every standardized test. The mostly white states are always at the top in SAT rankings.
By Jeff
November 4, 2008 4:03 PM | Link to this
I’m hoping for an EC result less than 270 either direction.
Do that, and it is POSSIBLE - since the House will select the President and the Senate the VP - that you have a split-ticket POTUS/VPOTUS.
Without putting a Libertarian in the White House, that is about the BEST result we can hope for.
By Republicans R Crooks
November 4, 2008 4:04 PM | Link to this
If mccain wins ga, you can kiss 20,000 federal jobs goodbye…they will be moved to North Carolina….
By Robby
November 4, 2008 4:07 PM | Link to this
I predict Obama will win the electoral college handily, somewhere north of 350 EV’s. I can’t say I’m happy about this, but it is what it is. The Democrats will net 7 seats in the senate falling short of the magic 60 seat number, but with “Republicans” like Susan Collins and Olympia Snow they really don’t need that amount. Likewise they’ll net 20 to 25 House seats. Looks like the GOP will get back the Mark Foley seat down in Florida and I pray John Murtha get’s handed his a* in western Pennsylvania! Us downtrodden conservatives always have the mid-terms to look forward to when often time is the case the party in power of the White House does poorly. Look what happened in ‘94!
By Reality Check
November 4, 2008 4:10 PM | Link to this
I am really enjoying reading about and hearing (on Hannity) the hate, anger, and bitterness at the prospect of having the Dems control the house, senate and POTUS. I would like to think that those who make such a big deal about their pride in America would respect the fact that this is what this country is about, But they can’t stand the notion that someone else will be in charge. This is a historic election that has finally seen this country reach its promise ( a woman and a person of color do what only white men have done). Regardless, of who wins{OBAMA!}, we have come a long way in this election cycle, I just wish those on the right could let go of some of the bitterness and accept that.
By WAW
November 4, 2008 4:11 PM | Link to this
Chambliss is in real trouble in a run-off because President Elect Obama will tour GA with Martin and get the vote out.
Sonny can Go Fish! GA Republicans have two years to do whatever they want. Last chance for the foreseeable future.
By El Jefe
November 4, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this
Obama will not win because he is not progressive enough.
His votes in favor of the Patriot Act will condemn him to defeat.
His lame attempt to bring socialism to America will not be enough to rally the workers of America.
He should have looked south for an example of how to lead in the reformation of this country. He is too tied up in consensus and not strong enough to lead.
By Billbob
November 4, 2008 4:27 PM | Link to this
Jim Wooten looks like a pedophile, thus he is a true republican.
By Rob
November 4, 2008 4:31 PM | Link to this
Yeah, I don’t know: Two years in politics is a long time. I think if the lefty-leaners come out with guns blazin’, you’ll see the pendulum take a hard swing back in the mid-term. It happened with Clinton, and he was not nearly as radical as O’bama promised he’ll be. The American populace—as evidenced by this and past elections—doesn’t really care for Washington-types messing with their wallets. And let’s not forget: The only body less popular than Dubya is the present Congress. More of the same won’t change that, I think. Maybe it’s the Dems that really only have two years to do whatever they want. Oh, and it’ll be a squeaker nationally. No landslide for either side, the “polls” be damned.
By getalife
November 4, 2008 4:35 PM | Link to this
Obama and the Dems in a landslide and a huge mandate for change.
Jim will finally apologize for his party’s failure and retire in disgrace.
The failed gop party will implode.
America makes a great comeback.
By Overbama
November 4, 2008 4:38 PM | Link to this
Reality check…conservatives like me are not bitter and angry, but I will be very disappointed if/when Obama wins. I am in no way effected by his “spread the wealth” tax doctrine, but I vehemently oppose it. This country was built on people aspiring to more than they have. Under Obama’s tax plan, why in the world would I care to try and earn more money if a large portion of it will be taken by the Feds to use for those who don’t work and haven’t earned my salary?
That is what socialism is, taking from those who work and giving to those who don’t, eliminating motivation to better one’s self in the process.
Democrats have held minorities in slavery for years by creating welfare and other give away programs instead of improving education and encouraging a work ethic to remove them from dependancy on the government. That is how Democrats get elected. That is why they are so opposed to the Fair Tax, since taxes is one of their favorite lies to use, saying they will tax the wealthy and give cuts to the poor. With a fair tax, that would eliminate one of their oldest battle cries.
Obama too will appoint Supreme Court justices to rewrite the constitution to match his views. He has said that plainly and clearly. While all judges are appointed based on the views of the president of the time, he is the first to say he doesn’t want someone making decisions based on law, but based on what is in their heart. That is just plain wrong.
I will wake up tomorrow hoping and praying Obama is the best president we have ever had, but I know in my heart that this country is on a downhill spiral that he will only hasten.
By making
November 4, 2008 4:45 PM | Link to this
McCain 272 Obama 266
By Keon
November 4, 2008 4:49 PM | Link to this
I would like to preface this with stating that I am a black liberal. Republicans it seems are going to keep the south. The liberals have not been able to effective explain and convince why their policies would better serve the people. Then they are people that are being distracted by the Obama associations argument given by the right. Then, we don’t talk about, but there are still a significant number of people that aren’t going to vote for a black man.
By republicankillstealanddestroysatanic
November 4, 2008 4:49 PM | Link to this
No substance from mccain and saxby supporters which shows that the people who claim to be so saved in the blood of jesus christ would have so much satanic hate in their hearts,the mccain-palin rallies show the anger of so-called christians saying kill him off with his head,war with russia china and iran is on the agenda for palin, is that jesus like? Hell no! you all scream filth out of your mouths like bomb all the arabs and asians get the blacks slave the mexicans, not a single word on how the neo-cons would improve the country. The days of redneck stupidity is numbered JIMBO!
By Mark
November 4, 2008 5:00 PM | Link to this
Overbama,
Get your facts straight. Obama has not ever proposed increasing benefits to welfare recipients, increasing food stamps or other programs for the poor. He’s not talking about taking money from the rich and giving it to poor unwed mothers.
What he IS talking about is this — our country is in a deep financial hole. Our budget deficit is at a record $10 trillion. We’re spending $10 billion a month in Iraq. Our financial system is in shambles and our bankers — the Chinese and the Saudis — are about to call our loan.
After 8 years of Bush tax cuts and a ruined economy, someone is going to have to pay the tab. Who should it be? The middle class? No… it should be the people who benefitted the most from the past 8 years and the all the other benefits that being an America gives.
Now, you and others might argue that rich people made it on their own and don’t owe any more to the country or to others. In addition to being horribly unpatriotic, that’s also dead wrong.
The military protects our borders and makes it possible for American business and other rich people here to flourish. There are roads, brigdes and rails that allow business people to afforably s** their goods across the country. These and other things were all paid for or subsidized by the American tax payer. The fact that a small number of people were able to leverage these tax-payer-paid-for resources better than others and were thus able to amass great wealth, is wonderful. Good for them! But to claim rich people made their money on there own and thus owe no more back to the country than a waitress or a stock clerk is sad.
By republicankillstealanddestroy
November 4, 2008 5:02 PM | Link to this
I notice that evil wicked neo-cons only speak of hate war and lies like mr jimbo here. It seems that the only way 4 rethugs to win is 2 cheat and be underhanded, look at the lies saxby is telling on martin and how he lied about max, charma is coming back fast and furious JIMBo. no pain no mccain yo mama 4 obama.
By Reality Check
November 4, 2008 5:05 PM | Link to this
Overbama @ 4:38
This is bigger than race. Those being held in bondage in the country for far to long are not the minorities, but the poor. I am African American and will be adversly affected by increased taxes on those that earn more, but at some point we have to understand that the better those on the bottom are doing, the better it is for those on the higher end of the scale. To imply that those that are on the bottom end of the economic scale don’t do anything, is misleading and just plain wrong. There are millions of sanitation workers, cooks, services workers ect. that contribute to our society in a way that goes beyond hard cash. Conservatives have forgotten a simple fact: On a car, the engine and transmission are what makes it go, but without the lowly tire, even a Mercedes is not worth a thing. I own and run a very successful business that allows me to have a great lifestyle, but I assure you that I, and I would bet that most business owners would agree, would be in a much worse place with those that work for me for $12.50 an hour.
By Question for Keon
November 4, 2008 5:11 PM | Link to this
Keon, can you please explain to us what your liberal policies are and why these policies would better serve the people?
By @@
November 4, 2008 5:20 PM | Link to this
I make no predictions Jim, other than those that hold true within the four walls of my humble abode. As a conservative I will offer this to the dems: A failure to plan will prove devastating in the event OBlahMa wins.
A plan in the homeplace is a proven winner every time.
I’ll wait to hear from the fat lady Jim. Was she at a table nearby? If she was singing falsetto, that’s not a good sign. Democrats are drawn to bad “broadway” musicals.
By Reality Check
November 4, 2008 5:24 PM | Link to this
@@
Why so angry? Insults? Name calling? That really below where we are today. LET IT GO!! The bitterness does not become you.
By W. Knight
November 4, 2008 5:34 PM | Link to this
Driving through Cobb the other day I saw that the same people that had “Give Me Back My Flag” signs in their yards now have “McCain - Palin ” signs and SAXBY signs. I wonder why redneck-mentality precludes understanding the carrot and stick approach the Republican Party has used in GA ever since the ‘70’s to garner conservative support? Most of these people are workers, or no higher than mid-level management - and small business owners in the area cater to the very people who’s income has been so affected by Republican Policy. And Saxby - he could have gained a few voters not usually inclined to vote for him if he had thought to support helping the Transit agencies through this AIG mess - supporting government guarantee of the loans in question. It was the Federal Transit Authority that RECOMMENDED that these transit agencies leverage their capital by offering the tax benefits for sale that they themselves could not use. Where was Republican leadership then? Let’s face it - the majority of Americans have been led by the nose. The Nose being their racism and distrust of anything not Caucasian. And I’m white myself, but awake.
By @@
November 4, 2008 5:36 PM | Link to this
Why so angry? Insults? Name calling?
Please reference my 5:20 and point to the Reality of your statement Reality.
Check!
You can’t because there is none of what you claim.
Either way the election goes…..dems will lose out eventually.
And that makes me happy indeed.
By Jim Wooten
November 4, 2008 5:43 PM | Link to this
@@ at 5:20: The fat lady wasn’t at a nearby table, but if she sings in Florida and Virginia, I get worried.
By Chad Harris
November 4, 2008 5:47 PM | Link to this
The group was systemically stupid if they think people didn’t come out for many reasons. Chief among them is to pack up your mush brain moron full of racially bigoted hate and send it back to Alaska.
It was indicative of her stupidity that she thanked two DJs for complementing her performance in a Larry Flynt Hustler flick. Personally she’s too stupid to play a role in the flick.
The Georgia legislature has been collectively stupid and incompetent since its existence, and it’s going to take a few years to get the African American and Hispanic population active enough to clean up that clusterf*ck that is a national laughingstock full o individuals with next to no educatqion.
By Seriously
November 4, 2008 5:49 PM | Link to this
Mark @ 5:00pm - Your explanation about how the rich didn’t earn their money makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. First, you must remember that nearly 50% of Americans (many, many waitresses and stock clerks) pay no taxes. And in fact, 53% of ALL taxes are paid by ONLY the top 5% income earners. 65% of taxes are paid by the Top 10%. So only a little sliver of our nation’s taxes are being paid by our middle class. So really, the rich are paying for the infrastructure and military that you cite as the reasons for their success (versus their entrepreneurial skills, education, motivation, etc…). I am sorry that you have not flourished in your career, and that you have resorted to namecalling those that make more than you (i.e. unpatriotic). However, do NOT call me unpatriotic until you have experienced what it feels like to shoulder the massive tax burden that I (and the other Top 5% are already saddled with). We are the people providing jobs to waitresses and stock clerks, and if you continue to bleed us dry, those jobs will cease to exist. I’m sure you’ll have much worse names for us then.
By GOPs got to go
November 4, 2008 5:55 PM | Link to this
I predict you owe Jay 1 dollar
By ron
November 4, 2008 5:57 PM | Link to this
ron predicts that he’ll go to bed early tonight and not worry about who gets elected until tomorrow.He has purchased some dvd’s with old movies on them and the tv is in the bedroom,so you figure it out.Paid a dollar each for the dvd’s.Three complete movies per dvd.”My Man Godfrey”, is up first.
By Justin
November 4, 2008 6:01 PM | Link to this
Jim,
All these months leading up to election day you’ve been saying McCain will without a doubt win Georgia, but now on election day you suddenly say Georgia is in play. How interesting.
The fact that your little group was split on whether Obama or McCain will win overall just goes to show how many of you are still in a cocoon. It’s one thing to root for your side, it’s another to ignore reality.
Obama wins the election, no doubts about it. My other predictions I’m less certain about. As you now acknowledge, Georgia is in play, and I think Obama wins 50-49. Georgia’s Senate race will go to a runoff, with Martin at 49, Chambliss at 48 and Buckley at 3. Jim Marshall keeps his seat. Possibly a few GOP losses in the state races. One probable goner you didn’t mention is Jill Chambers. I hope your wrong about Adkins being one of the top two, but I think a lot of the uniformed voters will choose her because she’s at the top. I think it could be Adkins, McGuire or McFadden. And as for the filibuster-proof majority, that will depend on Georgia’s race. Tonight, I think the Dems will pick up at least eight seats.
By Citizen Voter
November 4, 2008 6:06 PM | Link to this
Georgia is in play, and the south may split….that would be historical.
I confess I am a moderate republican (social moderate, fiscal conservative) who crossed over to the dems in entirety for the first time ever. My reasons.
6.Time to punish the party and reward it if it rediscovers its roots by midterm elections in two years.
Saxby wins No other changes
By AmVet
November 4, 2008 6:52 PM | Link to this
How coy of Mr. Wooten.
I have traveled the length and breadth of this great nation and everywhere I have ever been there is always a faux conservative/yellow journalist in each city’s local paper.
Grow up and grow a pair, neo-cons.
Though I guess today especially, it is a little late…
By Chad Harris
November 4, 2008 8:37 PM | Link to this
Jim Wooten—
Why don’t you use your power and influence with Cox Newspapers to reprint that Snoopy Dance column you did saying Obama is loosing significantly and so are the Dems and everyone knows it. Then use Joe the Plumber’s agent to let the TV stations (national) get alerts that you will be available to discuss your Snoopy Dance column.
Jim—Could it be possible that you and Liz Hasselback from The View are spending significant time together because you sound like a clone of her “statements.”
Louisville and Lexington haven’t been entered into the equation in Kentucky. We plan to take down Mitch McConnel the obstructionist b*h there. Unfortunately outside of those cities the people in Kentucky are as poorly educated as many of the people in Jaw Jaw.
We need to pickup 9 to do 60, or pratically 10 without the imbecille Leiberman who is going to be removed from any significant committee.
Eliz Dole is the corpse that she actually looks like right now. I see Viagra commercials in her future. The premise would be even when you have to look at her, Viagra can still work physiologically.
Kay Hagen put Dole down. Long overdue. That’s a pickup of a seat towards 60. Shaheen beat Sinunu—that’s a pickup. Warner beat Gilmore. Lundsford and McConnell too early.
If you learn nothing else, learn Palin is the dumbest woman on the planet.
Sack of lies (Draft Dodger and War Chicken v. Martin too early.
By Chad Harris
November 4, 2008 9:24 PM | Link to this
We took Ohio despite all the attempted vote stealing by the Thugs who ran a moron for VP.
By Chad Harris
November 4, 2008 9:32 PM | Link to this
New Mexico another Bushass Red we took.
By Chad Harris
November 4, 2008 9:47 PM | Link to this
Tom Udall wins New Mexico
You thugs can go to bed. Jawjaw retained enough ignorant voters as I predicted but Obama is President and Saxbut is in a runoff.
By Chad Harris
November 4, 2008 9:48 PM | Link to this
Tom Udall wins New Mexico
You thugs can go to bed. Jawjaw retained enough ignorant voters as I predicted but Obama is President and Saxbut is in a runoff.
Franken is going to beat Coleman. A quintissential Rethug putz bites dust.
By Chad Harris
November 4, 2008 10:08 PM | Link to this
Looks like a damn wake in Phoenix. Are the snowbilly yokel family comin’ down from Alaska where Stevens lost?
Cindy is thinking of taking a flight out to Caleeforney to hook up with her boyfriend after midnight.
By Chad Harris
November 4, 2008 10:36 PM | Link to this
**On Election Day a number of conservative journalists — yes, we exist gathered with some like-minded political junkies for an extended visit to talk about Georgia, the future of the conservative movement, and whether John McCain has put it together.
Could you print the recipes of the drinks that you and hour homies were guzzlin’ when this particular prediction was made?
That’d be one of the few useful pieces of info in your columns to date.**
McCain or Obama? The group was evenly split**
By dave
November 4, 2008 10:42 PM | Link to this
Darn fellows, you won. Try to enjoy your victory as soon you will have govern… and your wish will be fullfiled Sarah will be back… and this time she and we will be prepared for you…
By Chad Harris
November 4, 2008 11:30 PM | Link to this
Sarah could not be prepared unless a brain transplant were possible and it won’t be in her lifetime.
What truly amazes me is that you all cannot recognize a moron when you see one.
The interviews by Gibson and Couric (she never gava a press interview because she like Clarence Thomas was ashamed at the stupidity that came out of her mouth). She knows she’s stupid to a better degree than she did when she was picked.
Your party is not going to let the Wingnut base (nor will some of them) let Palin see the light of day as any kind of national candidate.
The Senator for Alaska is no longer Stevens and Lisa Murkowski will be defeated soon as well.
Moron Palin will not be able to appoint a Senator.
Get that snowbilly family back to Alaska and bury them. They have been an embarassement to your party and an insult to us that you would risk putting a moron in the White House.
The reasons there are no specifics in her speeches is because she coudln’t begin to understand them.
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November 16, 2008 1:01 PM | Link to this
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