Home > Thinking Right > Archives > 2008 > November > 04 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USIt’ll be a bad night if….
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The exit polls, once again, can be a problem. John Kerry ran about 5.5 points better in the exit polls than he did in actual votes. The explanation was that his voters were more likely to participate in the polls.
That said, however, we’ll know that it’ll be a bad night for John McCain if networks are confident enough to call states early. One plugged-in Republican tells me the key to what pollsters and the political parties look for can be found in 24 key precincts in five states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
They’ll be looking for the answers to three questions:
Is something called the Bradley effect in play? The theory is that some whites, fearing the perception that they are voting on the basis of race, lie to pollsters and overstate their support for a minority candidate. That supposedly occurred in the 1982 California gubernatorial race, which Tom Bradley lost after leading in the polls.
Are the numbers moving unpredictably? An example would be blacks supporting McCain in unexpectedly high numbers or married women supporting Obama.
Finally, the question they’ll be asking is whether new voters are showing up in unexpected numbers. They’re an unpredictable lot.
If the answers are “no, nothing unusual’s happening” the networks will be inclined to early predictions. If something is, they’ll be more cautious, explains my plugged-in friend.
For me, an early call on Florida and Virginia or Pennsylvania for Obama would set me up for a very unpleasant evening.
I’m off for a gathering of Republicans, many of whom have who have planned, run and won bigtime elections. Many of these folks were present four years ago when the exit polls convinced the country that Kerry had won. Their mood is not necessarily an indicator, therefore, of how the evening will go.
I’ll report back later.
Comments
By jz
November 4, 2008 6:58 PM | Link to this
could’ve saved a bunch of words, JW. it’ll be a day night if…you’re a republican.
By tony
November 4, 2008 7:05 PM | Link to this
Your statement For me, an early call on Florida and Virginia or Pennsylvania for Obama would set me up for a very unpleasant evening. I am wondering why it would be a bad evening for you. As a christian my biggest problem with conservatism is you people can’t let it go. The country should support the President who was voted in by the people. I understand before vote but after the people have spoken let it go and pray for and support the new leader of the free world even if it was not you choice…
By Class '08
November 4, 2008 7:20 PM | Link to this
And JZ, if Obama wins, it will be a bad 4 years to be an American.
By Dee
November 4, 2008 7:26 PM | Link to this
Class ‘08 You are so pitiful. What has the Republican Party done for America other than placed our country in a HUGE deficit due to greed and lack of knowledge? Do you ready want history to repeat itself due to your ignorance and fear?
By Jack
November 4, 2008 7:26 PM | Link to this
Man, the way the black folks are carrying on tonight, you’d think O.J. had just been acquitted of murder again.
By Azo
November 4, 2008 7:27 PM | Link to this
To get his talking points straight for the rest of the evening, Mr. Wooten has now sneaked off to listen in on a Karl Rove conference call. How boring.
By Dee
November 4, 2008 7:48 PM | Link to this
Jack I’m a white lady and I’m carrying on. Who is O.J. Simpson? It is 2008!!!!!
By AmVet
November 4, 2008 8:03 PM | Link to this
Finally, the question they’ll be asking is whether new voters are showing up in unexpected numbers. They’re an unpredictable lot.
Very true Mr. Wooten.
But I talked with a friend of mine in West Hollywood, Ca. earlier today and she said there were a lot of very young voters in line. She guessed most had never voted before.
OF COURSE, the young whites and blacks are voting almost exclusively for the Democrat. They often do.
This is the tenth presidential election I’ve participated in. The first at the age of 17, in 1972 when I voted for George McGovern. (I was in boot camp and as I was on “active duty”, could legally vote before my 18th birthday.)
But this election is unlike any in my life.
I am a lifelong, big-time, baseball fan. And this election is, for me, like the 1991 “worst to first” Twins/Braves World Series.
Two long shots who in their own way, best exemplify the American dream of rags to riches.
I salute John McCain. And not just because he outranked me. A great American who knows much about personal sacrifice. And risk. The epitome of a real Republican in my book.
And by late tonight, Senator Barack Hussein Obama may be the first non fully white man to be the leader of the free world.”The magnitude of this cannot be overstated.
If that happens, let’s all hope that as flawed as he is, (and all of us are) we still find a way to a better future.
For ourselves. Our children. And their children.
By slt
November 4, 2008 8:19 PM | Link to this
Not only do I hope its a bad night for you Mr. Wooten. I hope, as prejudice as you are, it will be your last night.
By Dee
November 4, 2008 8:20 PM | Link to this
AmVet You need medication NOW. Get use to saying President Obama. Ready or NOT!
By slt
November 4, 2008 8:21 PM | Link to this
Not only do I hope its a bad night for you Mr. Wooten. I hope, as prejudice as you are, it will be your last night.
By Teacher
November 4, 2008 8:27 PM | Link to this
It may be a long night for you but its been a long 8 years for America.
The GOP did not get it done. Out with the old and in with the new.
By joebrave
November 4, 2008 8:46 PM | Link to this
You IDIOTS voting for that Co—Su__ing Muslim,Are You Retards CRAZY, This is a vote for the total annhialation of Our MIlitary,and Our Small Business community… I hate That Coon Lipped Muslim with a Passion, And By the Way, The SONOFABICH ain’t gonna WIN GEORGIA!!!at Least We have some SENSE!!! So His Poor Ol Black lovin Grandma Died BOO HOO….
By joebrave
November 4, 2008 8:46 PM | Link to this
You IDIOTS voting for that Co—Su__ing Muslim,Are You Retards CRAZY, This is a vote for the total annhialation of Our MIlitary,and Our Small Business community… I hate That Coon Lipped Muslim with a Passion, And By the Way, The SONOFABICH ain’t gonna WIN GEORGIA!!!at Least We have some SENSE!!! So His Poor Ol Black lovin Grandma Died BOO HOO….
By stoptellingyourselfthings
November 4, 2008 8:46 PM | Link to this
Wooten you write “Are the numbers moving unpredictably? An example would be blacks supporting McCain in unexpectedly high numbers or married women supporting Obama.” What are all black women unmarried? What about married BLACK women. I hope you and your kind lose tonight.
By Hmmm....
November 4, 2008 8:46 PM | Link to this
The Repubs were getting it done well enough to get re-elected in ‘04, things started down hill when the Congress went Dem in ‘06, but few are smart enough to see that. So now you can have ALL Dem and see how much worse it gets. Guess what, I don’t intend to continue working as hard as I am, to pay more taxes and support more dead beats, so u just lost my dollars. As for the war dollars he intends to redirect, they aren’t REAL dollars (just debt) so they don’t exist to be redirected! Those soldiers, airman and sailors will still get paid, the equipment still must be maintained and he has a grand total of ZERO to apply to programs to “redistribute the wealth”. You want wealth? Get off your a* and work for it!! Think you can elect a man who will HAND it to you? You’ve been sold a bill of goods, you deserve what you’ll get!
By Also a teacher
November 4, 2008 8:47 PM | Link to this
To Teacher:
And its been a long 35 years for the nation’s unborn. There is no other issue that surpasses what abortion has done to our nation. It shows what our nation is really about…show me how you treat the most vulnerable in society and you’ll see what kind of morality it has.
By abortion what do we mean? Do any of you realize what the procedure is? Do you know what partial-birth abortion is? Abortions are done by removing the arms and legs of the baby and the rest of the fetus is sucked out of the womb. In a partial birth aboriton, the baby is partially born and then the skull is crushed with the brain then being sucked out. The rest of the baby is then removed. Is this what we mean by abortion or the right to “choose”? The right to choose what…the procedure above. Is it painful to read the words (facts) above? Why? Choice is supposedly a right of the woman, right? Choice is supposed to be a beautiful thing, right? Then. why is it painful to read? Especially, if it OK. Our beloved Obama supports both procedures. If this is how he protects our most vulnerable, how will he treat the rest of us when he doesn’t respect the most cherished rights of “life,liberty and the pursuit of happiness.” Its genocide pure and simple to kill the unborn. And yet America votes selfishly and thinks only of themselves….forget God’s children. Remember, Jesus’ words…”Before I formed you in the womb, I knew you!” A creation of God is being destroyed daily and America has grown numb to it. Sad! Tonight’s election is an indictment on our moral standing. We are voting for immoral politicians left and right! What about the children? We had a holocaust in Germany and said “Never Again!” And yet here we are….again! God Bless America needs to be retired…after tonight it will be God Have Mercy On America. We learned nothing from 9/11. The day after 9/11 not a single abortion was performed in New York City…amazing?! No…people were scared and what were they doing in large numbers? Praying for God to help us. Well, after this election, we better start doing it again…with repentence in mind. I will look to the results this way as Jesus did:
“Forgive Them (the Obama voters) For They Know Not What They Do!”
God Have Mercy On America!
By Also a teacher
November 4, 2008 8:51 PM | Link to this
To Teacher:
And its been a long 35 years for the nation’s unborn. There is no other issue that surpasses what abortion has done to our nation. It shows what our nation is really about…show me how you treat the most vulnerable in society and you’ll see what kind of morality it has.
By abortion what do we mean? Do any of you realize what the procedure is? Do you know what partial-birth abortion is? Abortions are done by removing the arms and legs of the baby and the rest of the fetus is sucked out of the womb. In a partial birth aboriton, the baby is partially born and then the skull is crushed with the brain then being sucked out. The rest of the baby is then removed. Is this what we mean by abortion or the right to “choose”? The right to choose what…the procedure above. Is it painful to read the words (facts) above? Why? Choice is supposedly a right of the woman, right? Choice is supposed to be a beautiful thing, right? Then. why is it painful to read? Especially, if it OK. Our beloved Obama supports both procedures. If this is how he protects our most vulnerable, how will he treat the rest of us when he doesn’t respect the most cherished rights of “life,liberty and the pursuit of happiness.” Its genocide pure and simple to kill the unborn. And yet America votes selfishly and thinks only of themselves….forget God’s children. Remember, Jesus’ words…”Before I formed you in the womb, I knew you!” A creation of God is being destroyed daily and America has grown numb to it. Sad! Tonight’s election is an indictment on our moral standing. We are voting for immoral politicians left and right! What about the children? We had a holocaust in Germany and said “Never Again!” And yet here we are….again! God Bless America needs to be retired…after tonight it will be God Have Mercy On America. We learned nothing from 9/11. The day after 9/11 not a single abortion was performed in New York City…amazing?! No…people were scared and what were they doing in large numbers? Praying for God to help us. Well, after this election, we better start doing it again…with repentence in mind. I will look to the results this way as Jesus did:
“Forgive Them (the Obama voters) For They Know Not What They Do!”
God Have Mercy On America!
By Hmmm....
November 4, 2008 8:52 PM | Link to this
The Repubs were getting it done well enough to get re-elected in ‘04, things started down hill when the Congress went Dem in ‘06, but few are smart enough to see that. So now you can have ALL Dem and see how much worse it gets. Guess what, I don’t intend to continue working as hard as I am, to pay more taxes and support more dead beats, so u just lost my dollars. As for the war dollars he intends to redirect, they aren’t REAL dollars (just debt) so they don’t exist to be redirected! Those soldiers, airman and sailors will still get paid, the equipment still must be maintained and he has a grand total of ZERO to apply to programs to “redistribute the wealth”. You want wealth? Get off your a* and work for it!! Think you can elect a man who will HAND it to you? You’ve been sold a bill of goods, you deserve what you’ll get!
By MSQ2U71
November 4, 2008 9:05 PM | Link to this
I am truly excited and grateful to be alive in this history making time in our United States of America. I pray that whatever happens it will benefit our country. Although I disagree with a lot of your comments and find them hateful, in bad taste and made out of sheer ignorance I respect your right to make them, after all this is America!
By MSQ2U71
November 4, 2008 9:06 PM | Link to this
I am truly excited and grateful to be alive in this history making time in our United States of America. I pray that whatever happens it will benefit our country. Although I disagree with a lot of your comments and find them hateful, in bad taste and made out of sheer ignorance I respect your right to make them, after all this is America!
By James
November 4, 2008 9:06 PM | Link to this
Ole joebrave is real brave posting anonymously. It 2008, and you’re so simple, that you still refer to a race of people in that manner. I bet it really p** you off that so many of us make more than you, and probably had sex with your wife back in the day before she got fat.
By TW
November 4, 2008 9:06 PM | Link to this
joebrave@8:51 - That’s ‘President Obama’ to you, turkey :-)
Be proud of yourself - folks like you are priceless advertising for the Dems :-)
By sedimenjerry
November 4, 2008 9:10 PM | Link to this
The problem is that although many polls have closed already in the east and have projected winners, polls still haven’t closed out west. People may be swayed by the projections. After all, who wants to vote for someone who hasn’t won as many states as the other candidate?
And no matter who wins, I wish we could do away with the electoral college. Popular vote determined by the true majority of the people should win. Not the majority of states.
By peggy
November 4, 2008 9:12 PM | Link to this
What a shock to come to a board called “Thinking Right” and find it filled with hatred, bigotry and inhumanity. Some of you are not THINKING, period. After the last eight years of having our country seen as a laughingstock all around the world, I am grateful to think we may be able to rescue it from the ugliness and fear of what the GOP has become. Shame on you!
By MarkP
November 4, 2008 9:29 PM | Link to this
Call me a crazy liberal but I actually don’t remember Kerry ever being the projected winner in 2004, or even his overall showing being predicted as statistically more favorable than the actuals, at least at the high level implied by Mr. Wooten… I think the right has spent so much time convincing itself of the “liberal media” fallacy that it’s lost its remaining grasp on reality…
By TW
November 4, 2008 9:29 PM | Link to this
Folded Arms - real shame you don’t support the troops. Your anti-American sentiment is much like that of Al Qaeda.
God I miss the real Republicans
By AJC/DNC Management
November 4, 2008 9:32 PM | Link to this
I agree with Peggy, there is no need for all of the hate.
Leave that to the democrats.
Think about this for a minute; the majority of the support that Oblahma received was from our children, same as the Khmer Rouge and Pol Pot used to take over Cambodia.
We all know how that turned out.
Our mistake? Letting the liberals take over public education.
The young will learn the error of their ways, real soon as a matter of fact, and we need to provide them the direction they need, to show them the meaning of success instead of dependency, give them examples of freedom and not governmental bondage, teach them pride in their country and not in some sorry political party.
They know none of these things, it is our fault.
And we are not going to teach them the greatness of America, the major task that lies ahead of us, by hating on others.
By Indifferent
November 4, 2008 9:34 PM | Link to this
These blogs are further proof that the South is still racist. Congratulations to the truly educated North for electing President Obama. I hope that Obama dumps a pile of sh*t on Georgia. You reap what you sow.
President Obama will drive old dixie down…and the North will be singing.
By Indifferent
November 4, 2008 9:44 PM | Link to this
AJC/DNC Management - Get off your soapbox. Your paper candidate lost and your party has done jack squat in the last 8 years. Your “savior” Bush is leaving office with the lowest approval ratings EVER captured.
Looking down at the “youth” thru your nose shows your ignorance.
Mistake letting liberals take over education? Last time I looked the finest colleges and universities in the world exist in the North including the most “liberal” states. Look throughout history and find how many Presidents graduated from schools like Harvard or Yale; not too many Presidents from UGA or the South for that matter.
Enjoy the next 8 years and you can thank YOUR party for the rise of President Obama. Look in the mirror…
By sedimenjerry
November 4, 2008 9:44 PM | Link to this
Wow, a few people on a blog made an entire region racist. Dang. That’s news to me. Youtube search: McCain Supporters in PA: “Bomb Obama” “Never vote for black” That’s in Penn. where Obama just won.
Of course not all of Penn. feels that way and not all McCain supporters feel that way either.
By AJC/DNC Management
November 4, 2008 9:52 PM | Link to this
By Indifferent November 4, 2008 9:44 PM AJC/DNC Management - Get off your soapbox. Your paper candidate lost and your party has done jack squat in the last 8 years. Your “savior” Bush is leaving office with the lowest approval ratings EVER captured.
I said it was our fault, didn’t I, turd blossom?
You wankers know not what you do, but you will find out, hahaha, real soon in fact.
Live high on the hog on your parents hard earned dollars and use that privilege, that benefit to spend all your time hating on the things that got you the cushy little life that you lead.
Moron, you just pulled the rug out from under yourself.
By Indifferent
November 4, 2008 9:52 PM | Link to this
What’s great is seeing that FAT HEAD Karl Rove with his tail tucked between his legs. That sleaze ball can chew on the following words “President Obama”.
Poetic justice.
By Again
November 4, 2008 10:30 PM | Link to this
I’ll keep saying it:
AJC, please do some moderation and get these blog comments under control. The foul nonsense that’s allowed to be spewed in the comments sections here wouldn’t be tolerated at newspaper sites in cities half this size.
And before anyone pulls out the “censorship” canard, a newspaper is a private business. It’s therefore not obligated to allow anyone to say anything.
By Azo
November 4, 2008 11:08 PM | Link to this
Oh Mr. Wooten you have been gone so long. Please come back. You promised to come back. Or did your gathering of Republican sink into depression, or drink itself to oblivion?