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Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Wait no more…
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It appears Barack Obama has won.
He’s picked up Iowa, Ohio and New Mexico, states won by George W. Bush four years ago. It’s certain that he’ll win California and Washington. Ultimately, the outcome in Florida and Virginia, even if favorable to McCain, won’t be enough.
All of us should pray that Barack Obama is more moderate than conservatives believe and that the associations of his past are not his counselors of the future.
Pray, too, that if indeed he is tested in the first six months, as Joe Biden predicts, or whenever it comes, that he’s up to the heavy responsibility that now falls on his shoulders.
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Waiting, waiting for Florida, Virginia
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Virginia and Florida. Those are the states that matter now — and, without question, it’s a good sign for John McCain that neither has been called.
The loss of New Mexico is big. Pennsylvania has been a blue state since 1992 and McCain had hopes, given Barack Obama’s pledge to wreck the coal industry. But in the end the Philadelphia machine was simply too much. It remains a blue state.
McCain takes Georgia, as predicted. Fulton , Clayton and DeKalb are not yet in and those are traditional Democratic strongholds. But two networks have predicted a McCain victory — and given the numbers he’s rolling up in GOP strongholds like Cherokee County and throughout rural Georgia, that seems a safe call.
My Republican friends were not particularly upbeat during dinner. They, too, are waiting for Florida and Virginia. But some of their criticism of the McCain campaign led to the obvious conclusion that they think he’s in real trouble. The next hour or so should tell. ABC’s projection of Ohio for Obama make Obama look inevitable.
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It’ll be a bad night if….
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The exit polls, once again, can be a problem. John Kerry ran about 5.5 points better in the exit polls than he did in actual votes. The explanation was that his voters were more likely to participate in the polls.
That said, however, we’ll know that it’ll be a bad night for John McCain if networks are confident enough to call states early. One plugged-in Republican tells me the key to what pollsters and the political parties look for can be found in 24 key precincts in five states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
They’ll be looking for the answers to three questions:
Is something called the Bradley effect in play? The theory is that some whites, fearing the perception that they are voting on the basis of race, lie to pollsters and overstate their support for a minority candidate. That supposedly occurred in the 1982 California gubernatorial race, which Tom Bradley lost after leading in the polls.
Are the numbers moving unpredictably? An example would be blacks supporting McCain in unexpectedly high numbers or married women supporting Obama.
Finally, the question they’ll be asking is whether new voters are showing up in unexpected numbers. They’re an unpredictable lot.
If the answers are “no, nothing unusual’s happening” the networks will be inclined to early predictions. If something is, they’ll be more cautious, explains my plugged-in friend.
For me, an early call on Florida and Virginia or Pennsylvania for Obama would set me up for a very unpleasant evening.
I’m off for a gathering of Republicans, many of whom have who have planned, run and won bigtime elections. Many of these folks were present four years ago when the exit polls convinced the country that Kerry had won. Their mood is not necessarily an indicator, therefore, of how the evening will go.
I’ll report back later.
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Predictions from conservative gathering
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
On Election Day a number of conservative journalists — yes, we exist — gathered with some like-minded political junkies for an extended visit to talk about Georgia, the future of the conservative movement, and whether John McCain has put it together.
Here are some of the conversation topics:
Is Georgia in play? Yes. An early clue as to whether Barack Obama can put it together here will come from Cobb County and from Gwinnett. If Obama comes out of those two counties with 45 percent of the vote, it could happen. The consensus of the gathering was that McCain wins Georgia, 51-48.
A runoff for U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss. The senator had said in a conversation last week that his lead over Democrat Jim Martin was widening. While he did not offer numbers, the group gathered today thinks he’s in good shape. A late poll had him at 48 to 39 for Martin and 5 for the Libertarian, according to one of commentators present.
The only Congressional race that prompted a great deal of discussion was the 8th in Middle Georgia, where incumbent Jim Marshall is being challenged by Republican Rick Goddard. At issue was whether the Chambliss turn-out-the-vote effort in his old House district could pull Goodard over the top. If there’s a sleeper upset, it’s here.
In the Georgia House and Senate, little change is expected. The betting is that the Georgia Senate finishes the day unchanged at 34-22 GOP, while in the House Democrats make a net gain of only 3 seats. One Democratic race thought to be in play is State Rep. Jeanette Jamison of Toccoa, the former chairman of the House Education Committee. Concern was expressed that State Reps. Thunder Tumlin of Marietta and Allen Freeman of Macon, both Republicans, could be in real trouble.
In the crowded race for the open seat on the Georgia Court of Appeals, bet on a runoff between Tamela Adkins, a Gwinnett County family practice lawyer, and either Atlanta lawyer Bruce Edenfield or former State Sen. Perry McGuire.
McCain or Obama? The group was evenly split.
A filibuster-proof Senate? No.
And your predictions?
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Beware of bad exit polls.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The McCain campaign and those of us who remember the exit polls four years ago that predicted a John Kerry victory are united in saying don’t jump to conclusions early.
As with the pre-election polls, the exit polls are used by supporters of Barack Obama and by their commentators as evidence of his inevitability. But, as the McCain camp takes pains to point out, there are some reasons to be skeptical of exit polls.
Why? They’ve tended to overstate the Democratic vote in individual states and nationally, especially in high-turnout and high-interest elections like the one in 1992 and 2004, says McCain pollster Bill McInturff. Furthermore, he notes, Obama supporters are more likely to participate in exit polls.
Adding to doubt about their reliability is that they’re influenced by age, race and gender of those who ask the questions of exiting voters.
And, too, in Georgia 35 percent of the registered voters have already cast ballots. It’s not certain that those who voted early and those who voted today are voting in the same pattern.
One warning, though, to McCain supporters in Georgia. Early indications are that turnout is lighter than expected in some Republican stronghold precincts.
