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Wednesday, August 6, 2008
OK, now is Georgia in play?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The vote shift in the Democratic runoff can have only one explanation: The Democratic Party and the Barack Obama campaign decided their chances in Georgia would be far better in November with former State Rep. Jim Martin of Atlanta on the ticket than with DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones.
Nothing obvious in either campaign, in Martin’s or Jones’, can account for the dramatic shift in three weeks. Some examples:
In Bibb County (Macon), Jones led Martin by 2,000 votes in July and less than 100 Tuesday.
In Dougherty County (Albany), Jones led by 5,000 votes in July and by 1,100 Tuesday.
In Metro Atlanta, it was a blow-out reversal: In Fulton, Jones led by 500 in July and lost by more than 15,000 Tuesday. In DeKalb, he led by almost 7,000 in July and lost by 15,000 Tuesday. In Clayton, Jones led by 6,000 in July and lost by about 3,500 Tuesday. In Cobb, Jones trailed Martin by about 500 votes in July and lost by more than 7,500 Tuesday.
In Richmond County (Augusta), Jones led by 7,500 in July and by 1,600 Tuesday.
In Muscogee County (Columbus) Jones led by 3,500 in July and did unusually well Tuesday, winning by 2,000.
In Chatham County (Savannah), Jones won by 6,000 last month and by less than 1,000 Tuesday.
Across North Georgia it was a blow-out for Martin. Union County went 827-37 for Martin. White County was 235-26, Martin. Towns County, Zell Miller’s home county, went for Martin, 219-9. In Union, Jones got 385 votes in the primary and in both White and Towns, he pulled less than he did in July.
Others may have a different explanation, but absent a great deal of money or some well-publicized news event, fortunes don’t turn as dramatically in major races as they did these three weeks. I don’t think anything either campaign did produced this kind of shift in voter preferences. The explanation here is that the Obama campaign determined that Jones would be a drag on their chances of putting Georgia in play — and got that word out.
So does Martin’s win help Obama? It substitutes a stable, reliable candidate who will show well for one who can be unpredictable and has the potential to do something embarrassing. It helps him by not hurting him. And while Martin can be low-key to the point of lifelessness, he is a Vietnam veteran and that could be a plus for Obama’s Georgia campaign. But still, Georgia is not in play.
Can Martin beat Chambliss? Highly unlikely. But, as unlikely as it is, the Democrats’ chances of picking up the seat are better with Martin than with Jones.
