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Friday, July 18, 2008
Despite hype, Obama won’t carry Georgia
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
What happened?
The throw-the-rascals-out sentiment never materialized at the polls last Tuesday. Incumbents won.
Clayton County voters pitched a fit about a sorry school board and the local system’s possible loss of accreditation. And when it came time to do something about it, only one in five bothered to go to the polls.
The lesson from last Tuesday?
For one, U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss is more secure than I’d previously thought. Part of it is that both Republican and Democratic incumbents fared well.
The same was true for incumbents in the Georgia House and Senate. A loss or a runoff here and there, but through the primary, it’s an incumbent’s year. And Clayton. Passionate people did nothing to follow through.
A primary is not a presidential election. People who register now may indeed turn out in November for a historic event — the first general election with a black man as a major-party nominee.
But, stripped of the hype, it seems even less likely that Georgia could be in play for Barack Obama or that this will be anything other than the usual strongly contested presidential election. Those who are most excited about the Obama candidacy — the young — are historically no-shows at the polls.
Among Democrats, with the heated presidential primary between Obama and Hillary Clinton on Feb. 5, turnout by black females ages 18-24 in Georgia was 22 percent. For white females of that age group who voted Democratic, it was 7 percent. Among black males, it was 16 percent; among white males, 6 percent. Among Republicans, it was 7 percent for the category; 12 percent for white males and females.
The point is that registering young voters and actually getting them to vote are entirely different matters.
There’s some indication, too, that the much-publicized Obama surge in voter registration is hyped. The “surge,” so far at least, is consistent with the 2004 presidential year, according to information posted by Secretary of State Karen Handel’s office.
Between January and June of this year, new registration by black females (41,995) grew by 4.8 percent. Between January and June of 2004, black female registration grew (35,100) by 4.9 percent.
Same time period for white female registration growth: 44,644, or 2.5 percent this year; 42,060, or 2.5 percent in 2004.
For black males: 30,844, or 5.1 percent this year; 29,037, or 5.9 percent in 2004. For white males: 39,820, or 2.5 percent this year; 41,934, or 2.8 percent in 2004.
In June-to-June comparisons this presidential year, the percentage increase for black females was 9.0; for black males, 9.7; for white females, 5.0; and for white males, 4.8.
In June-to-June for the 2004 presidential year, it was 8.3 for black females; 9.9 for black males; 4.5 for white females; and 4.8 for white males.
The standout category is women — and that’s not a category that clearly favors one party over the other. Single women gravitate to the Democratic Party, married women to the Republican.
The “surge” of registrations this year is routinely put at 300,000. That’s somewhat misleading in that presidential years attract voters who don’t go to the polls in intervening years. Of the 300,000 about 107,000 fall into that category. The actual number of new active voters, according to Handel’s spokesman, is 193,585. Currently active registration is 4.74 million; in July 2004, it was 3.91 million.
George W. Bush defeated John Kerry in the state by about 550,000 votes in 2004. The last Democrat to carry Georgia was Bill Clinton in 1992. He won by a 14,000-vote margin because independent Ross Perot siphoned off 300,000 — one reason no disenchanted conservative should abandon John McCain for Bob Barr.
The primary point to be made here is that a gap exists between political hype and reality. We’re being spun. It is shaping up to be, well, a typical presidential election year — hyper and partisan. Georgia is not in play, the hype notwithstanding.
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Buts, wayward beagle, King kids
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Thinking Right’s weekend free-for-all. Pick a topic:
Henceforth the word “but” will be standard issue in weather school. It could rain for 40 days and 40 nights, “but” Lake Lanier’s still down and the drought’s still on. Just so you don’t forget and think it’s OK to water your lawn. No news can be good news in times of crisis.
I’ve no idea what this means. It’s a version of Grady CEO Pam Stephenson’s quote. But here goes: “I’ll never apologize for being Jim Wooten.” Huh? And this, too: “I wouldn’t have signed an unfair contract.” Unfair to me? Unfair to thee?
Democrats, divided for months over whether to offer the first black or the first woman for president, have a solution to their dilemma. The Green Party has chosen Cynthia McKinney.
Raul Castro is one word away from being a free-market capitalist. Addressing Cuba’s parliament, he said: “Socialism means social justice and equality, but equality of rights, of opportunities, not of income.” Change the word “income” —- a step in the right direction —- to “outcome” and he’s one of us.
Dang. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki turns out to be a Nancy Pelosi Democrat. The clue is in the headline: “Iraq handing out cash to citizens on the streets.” She’s proposing another round of “stimulus” rebates to add to the deficit since the first one worked so well.
The King children need not be embarrassed around me about their squabbling and all. I’m unplugged. Today, tomorrow …
Not surprising that a beagle that disappeared in New York five years ago showed up in Atlanta. It’s been that way with people for 30 years. Why not dogs?
The ball’s in your court, Congress. Both the president and Congress have to act to lift the ban on expanded offshore exploration. Bush did. Thanks. And it may or may not be a coincidence that the price of oil dropped $6.44 a barrel the next day. When buyers —- or speculators, as Democrats prefer to call them —- think we’re serious about doing something, they’ll react in anticipation. It’s now up to Congress to follow suit.
In the week’s elections I am cheered and dismayed. Cheered that the lone remaining veteran of World War II still in the General Assembly —- state Rep. John Yates of Griffin —- won re-election with a primary victory. Dismayed that the conservative cause lost a stellar performer, state Rep. Jeff Lewis of Cartersville, who lost by 186 votes.
You gotta hand it to U.S. Rep. Paul Broun (R-Athens). He has solidified his support in a staunchly Republican 10th Congressional District about as quickly and well as I’ve seen a politician do. He defeated state Rep. Barry Fleming of Harlem, the majority whip of the Georgia House, 71 percent to 29 percent, carrying every county.
After Tuesday, the entire Cobb school board that proposed to spend $75 million to provide laptop computers to every middle school and high school student, as well as the superintendent who recommended it, will be gone. Veteran school board member Betty Gray —- who opposed the laptop deal —- lost to David L. Morgan, husband of state Rep. Alisha Thomas Morgan, in the Democratic primary. He’s an interesting guy and a good addition to the board. Morgan struggled mightily with the Atlanta school board in an effort to create a charter school, Achieve Academy.
Comparing the Gwinnett straw poll today on MARTA to the referendum nearly 40 years ago is meaningless. Different county, different people. Once again in unison: Dirt’s permanent, people aren’t. Which is why it’s foolish to assign personality traits or values to place. I hate it when those in neighboring counties to the south speak of my county, Cobb, based on the stereotypes of yesteryear. Same with Gwinnett.
Voters in Clayton County should be embarrassed. After all that hoopla about the schools, turnout was 21 percent. The problem is not photo ID. It’s potential voters who make noise expressing their anger. And then are missing in action on election day.
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