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Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Where now for Jones, Martin?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
In the morning’s light, the Democratic race for the U.S. Senate nomination to oppose incumbent Saxby Chambliss shows two candidates in need of money.
DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones needs money to consolidate and turn out his base in rural and urban areas with sizeable percentages of black voters. Those include Clayton County (Jonesboro), Bibb County (Macon), Burke County (Waynesboro), Chatham County (Savannah), DeKalb County (Decatur), Dougherty County (Albany), Douglas County (Douglasville), Henry County (McDonough), Liberty County (Hinesville), Muscogee County (Columbus), Newton County (Covington), Richmond County (Augusta), and Rockdale County (Conyers).
This is not intended as the slight it sounds like, but Jones runs really well in areas outside Metro Atlanta where he is slightly less well known. It was a blow-out win for him in Albany, Augusta, Macon, Savannah and Columbus, as well as in Metro Atlanta areas that are trending Democratic: Rockdale, Douglas, Henry and Newton. In pockets of Cobb and Gwinnett he ran well, too. He owns Clayton.
The key for Jones, then, is to find or buy some of that youthful energy and excitement that drove Barack Obama’s successful campaign. Tap in to “hope” and “change,” motivate the young, organize turnout in the areas cited and he’s in. It’s a tall order, but possible.
Jim Martin needs money, too, for a different kind of campaign. He draws more broadly across the state, with no real concentrations of voter support sufficient to pull him through. He needs a major media campaign, which is costly.
Martin needs money for media. Jones needs money to put feet on the ground.
Dale Cardwell, the number three finisher with 16.1 percent of the vote, tapped into something with his “no PAC-money” pledge. He ran a strong race for a newcomer, even outside the Atlanta media market where television viewers and potential voters got to know him as an investigative reporter.
He’s actually the better gauge of anti-Washington sentiment than is either Jones or Martin. Two counties are particularly interesting. One is Chattooga County (Summerville) at the top of the state and the other is Ware County (Waycross) at the bottom. Both are independent “let me be” counties where people like their government small, affordable and unintrusive. In Chattooga, Cardwell appears to have beaten both Jones and Martin, though one precinct remains out, with 1,226 for Cardwell, 457 for Jones and 1, 208 for Martin. Cardwell was strong thorughout northwest Georgia, which tends to be more conservative than the rest of the state. In Ware, Cardwell beat Martin, 206-192, though Jones carried the county with 385.
So where to Cardwell’s voters go? Hard to say. A guess would be that half stay home unless there’s a local runoff. Martin and Jones split the rest, especially if Jones is able to make the case that he’s the more conservative.
Martin is probably slightly advantaged for the runoff. Supporters of Josh Lanier and Rand Knight will go to him and Jones will have a tough time generating the excitement he needs to pull his voters back to the polls. Low turnout in any of his key counties would be deadly to his chances of winning the nomination.
Jones needs to concentrate on about 15 counties. Martin needs to work on the other 144.
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