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Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Early prediction: Jones, Martin in Senate runoff
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Update/10:56:
State Sen. Jeff Chapman will survive a tough challenge in the Brunswick area of the Georgia coast, but two female senators won’t be so lucky. Both Nancy Schaefer, (R-Turnerville) and Gail Davenport (D-Jonesboro) will have runoffs.
Schaefer bought her trouble by indecision. She announced that she’d leave the State Senate to challenge U.S. Rep. Paul Broun in the 10th Congressional District. Then she changed her mind. Meanwhile, she’d drawn two challengers — and she’ll finish the night in second place. Not smart politics. The district will never be safe for her. Indecision can be costly.
Davenport drew four challengers, including former state legislator Gail Buckner. Davenport’s leading, but with less than 43 percent of the vote. Not a good sign for a secure political future.
Update/10:23:
Despite the debacle that was this year’s General Assembly and U.S. Congress, it’s not turning out to be a throw-the-bums-out year. All incumbent members of Congress will win their primaries and only a couple of legislative races make news.
One is in Bartow County where 16-year incumbent Jeff Lewis was defeated tonight by Paul Battles by about 185 votes. Blame that one on the feud between the Speaker and the lieutenant governor that kept the legislature from delivering results on tax relief and transportation. Lewis is a top-notch legislator and a good conservative. This is a real loss.
Another good young conserative is also in a real battle. State Rep. Steve Davis of Henry County leads challenger Trea Pipkin by about 125 votes with 95 percent of precincts reporting. Henry is another county where taxes and transportation are big issues. His district is one Republicans will have a tough time holding in another cycle or two. It’s trending Democratic.
The loss of Davis and Lewis would make this a really bad night.
Update/9:52:
One of the two Georgia Democratic congressmen targeted by the GOP, John Barrow of Savannah, will turn back his challenger, State Sen. Regina Thomas of Savannah. in the 12th Congressional District. That district stretches from Savannah to Athens to Augusta and while it should be a safe district for Democrats, it’s one either party can win — with the right candidate.
Barrow will face John Stone, a former senior aide to the late Charlie Norwood and to Max Burns, the last Republican to win in this district. Stone’s leading now in a three-man race with 57 percent of the vote.
In a good year, Republicans could pick up this seat.
Update/8:41:
With just about a quarter of the vote tallied in the Republican primary in the 10th Congressional District, incumbent Paul Broun is likely to retain his seat in Congress. The challenger, up-and-coming state legislator Barry Fleming is not running nearly as well in his end of the district as he needs to. Broun has 72 percent of the vote — and strength in places not yet reported.
Broun has a Democratic challenger, but it’s a heavily Republican district. He’ll be back in Congress next year.
Posted/7:59:
Early returns don’t tell us much — but it is clear, as expected, that in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, it’ll come down to DeKalb CEO Vernon Jones and former State Rep. Jim Martin of Atlanta.
The three counties that matter most in determining the outcome are DeKalb, Fulton and Clayton. Throw in Macon, Augusta and Columbus and we’ll know the outcome.
For now, returns are scattered throughout the state. Martin is, no doubt, the favorite of the Democratic establishment, but Jones is running well in most places reporting early. My hunch, based on these returns, which account for less than 1 percent of the precincts, is that Jones will wind up in first place. Right now, Martin’s leading with about 46 percent of the vote to 28 for Jones.
Is it possible for Jones to win without a runoff? Maybe. Returns from Greene County along I-20 in east Georgia are interesting. With 2 of 10 precincts reporting, Jones has 117 votes to 41 for Martin. Greensboro, on the north side of I-20, has a black voting majority.
I watched the last Democratic debate involving these candidates, such as it was. Real low-key. Nothing there to boost turnout, though I’ve got to say that Vernon Jones probably performed best. If people outside Metro Atlanta were just beginning to pay attention, he likely picked up some votes.
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Development must hinge on road capacity
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Until Georgia embraces a transportation plan that actually fixes traffic congestion —- that is, one that gets us moving rather than one that offers so-called “alternatives” —- city and county officials should follow this rule:
Do not zone or approve density greater than the carrying capacity of existing or funded roads.
Even before gas reached $4 a gallon, overdevelopment under the guise of creating “live-work-play” projects had begun. The problem, however, is that most high-density zoning in areas served by inadequate road networks diminishes the quality of our lives. Unless people actually confine their movements to the vicinity of the high-density area, the net result is that traffic’s made worse.
The city of Atlanta, for example, has been active in approving apartments along Marietta Street between downtown and the King Plow arts complex —- without adding street capacity. In three years or less, it’ll be a nightmare. That, I think, is by design —- planned inconvenience for the purpose of forcing residents onto buses. That’s fine for those who live, work and play entirely on bus or rail lines and have unlimited time to invest in getting there.
For the rest of us, though, a policy of deliberately inconveniencing metro Atlantans to effect the lifestyle changes that planners prefer conflicts with our sense of the role of government. Government should serve us as we wish to live —- and use our tax dollars to provide the schools, fire and police services, and roads and sewers that we need.
Some clearly prefer high density —- and that should be approved in areas with sufficient road capacity or next to rail.
Gov. Sonny Perdue and the state Department of Transportation are in the process of developing a statewide transportation plan. As it stands, there’s insufficient money available to fix congestion. The state, therefore, has to have a plan that —- for metro Atlanta, anyway —- measures congestion and allocates the dollars to those solutions that provide the greatest gridlock relief for the tax dollar spent.
Don’t give me “alternatives” that are, in reality, no such thing. Providing “alternative” ways of getting from Point A to Point B —- from Marietta, for example, to downtown Atlanta —- is an alternative only for the relative handful of people who want to move between those two points at the times service is offered.
There’s a tendency, a political inclination actually, to throw together something from every advocacy group’s wish list in a regional or statewide transportation plan. That’s easy. It is, frankly, what legislators did in trying to pass a statewide sales tax this year. And if that’s what Perdue and the DOT ultimately decide, they will bring forth a plan that is the worst of government —- spending our money without solving problems, in this case fixing congestion.
A congestion-relief plan should unlock gridlock on a cost-benefit basis. The greatest mobility for the largest number of people at the least sum. Tax dollars should be spent efficiently and deliver results.
One concern here is that state officials will spend substantial sums on “alternatives” —- commuter rail or other boutique transportation adventures —- while underfunding capacity improvement. Or, more likely, use public dollars to fund the exotics while inviting the private sector to build toll roads.
Toll roads are a part of the solution, no doubt. But every available dollar should be spent buying relief that’s real.
Zonings and rezonings currently under way will, otherwise, make congestion worse and make metro Atlanta far less desirable as a place to live. State officials have to get ahead of congestion.
Ron Sifen, a County Commission candidate in Cobb County, is one of those who advocates public policies to stop approving development projects that exceed the capacity of roads and other infrastructure. It’s an idea whose time has come.
Unless road improvements are approved and funded, or unless there’s existing capacity, city and county officials shouldn’t approve projects that make mobility worse. On a road that links two or more developing cities or counties, capacity should be apportioned by the state DOT. When new capacity is added, new rezonings should be allowed.
Fix congestion. Don’t make it worse. No games. Fix it.
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