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Tuesday, June 17, 2008
U.S. Senate primary could be Vernon Jones’ to lose
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
This week’s question posed of all candidates for the U.S. Senate, without regard to whether they have primary opposition, is straightforward enough.
“What should the United States do to end the war in Iraq?”
Only U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss got it right. We win.
DeKalb County Chief Executive Officer Vernon Jones came close. Except for the usual Democratic-candidate habit of misquoting John McCain on how long U.S. forces will be in a shooting war in Iraq, the position Jones advocates is awfully close to existing policy. Former State Rep. Jim Martin of Atlanta may be close, too, but his expressed position essentially allows the reader to conclude anything. That’s probably smart. Georgians may tire of the war but will never opt for defeat, however couched.
With less than a month to go before the July 15 primary, which pits Jones and Martin against three other Democrats, it does appear to be Jones’ race to lose. Here’s why:
Despite the Barack Obama surge in Georgia’s presidential primary —- 97,310 more Democrats than Republicans voted —- he’s not on the primary ballot next month. The driver of turnout, therefore, is local races and about 35 contested legislative races.
In Democratic districts, the contested races are heavily in the metro Atlanta area and predominantly in majority-black districts. About 25 House and nine Senate members have challengers. Senate races are in metro Atlanta, Savannah, Albany, Augusta and Columbus. The only white incumbent Democrat with opposition in the state Senate is Nan Orrock of Atlanta.
The point is that legislative races in the Democratic primary are in areas that likely favor Vernon Jones.
The other local race that can be expected to drive turnout is sheriff.
The advantage there likely goes to Jones as well. Democrats have contested primaries in 65 counties, including Bibb (Macon), Clayton, DeKalb, Dougherty (Albany) and Lowndes (Valdosta). The overlap of sheriff and legislative races creates voter-interest hot spots that, when combined with the racial-pride enthusiasm generated by Obama’s success, make Jones hard to beat in the primary.
Martin is relying on Jones’ words to sink him. Jones has said he voted twice for George W. Bush, causing state party chairman Jane Kidd to question his allegiance to the Democratic Party. Jones thinks Martin is “too liberal for Georgia” and has chastised the party for recruiting “losers.” Against Chambliss, Martin would be the stronger candidate, but I’m not yet convinced that he can get the nomination —- or that Jones can’t win without a runoff.
While the Senate campaign is not yet on the radar, Jones has a presence, with billboards or signs at least, in towns and cities with large black populations. They’re noticeable, and they were early, giving him exclusive claim to voter attention. See it half a dozen times and the name sticks. That’s important, because blacks represent almost half of the Democratic base, and since 2004, 160,000 blacks have been added to voting rolls, compared with 150,000 whites.
While he has his critics in metro Atlanta, Jones is a personable candidate with great potential to charm voters. His name is out there, and if he’s able to tap into the Obama groundswell, he’ll be hard for the Democratic establishment to beat.
By targeting his base in DeKalb and Clayton, the 34 House and Senate districts with primary challenges, and the 65 sheriff races in counties with large black populations —- something that’s manageable —- Jones could pull it off next month. No runoff. Could he win in November? Probably not.
Could Martin? I’d not bet against him, though he’d be a long shot. He’s likable, and that comes across in his television commercials. He’s a Vietnam veteran and a guy who probably can make the case that he’d be a centrist on most issues. He’d support ending some of the Bush tax cuts, but not all; capital gains, for example.
The Obama surge, the Gold Dome debacle that this past session represented and the low opinion voters have of Congress don’t bode well for Chambliss. He’s not a shoo-in —- though the race is his to lose.
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