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Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Tuesday’s lessons in Georgia
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Some observations on the political season ahead based on how Georgians voted Tuesday:
• Barring a scandal, Republicans can’t lose control of the State House and Senate in Georgia this year. But they can lose statewide. On Tuesday, more than 100,000 more voters chose to vote in the Democratic primary. Barack Obama collected more votes than any two Republicans combined.
• If Hillary Clinton’s the nominee, the Republican wins Georgia. She has a serious gender-gap problem with men. Obama could win Georgia in a general election, especially if John McCain makes a misstep or fails to unite the party.
• The outcome Tuesday in Georgia among Republicans would likely have been no different had none of the candidates dropped out. Mike Huckabee still would have won. And,had Huckabee dropped out, McCain would have won.
• The West Virginia convention deal in which McCain and Huckabee delegates joined forces against Romney was the smoke-filled-room trading of a bygone era. But on the ground in Georgia, outside metro Atlanta at least,the back-up choice for Huckabee or McCain would have been the other, not Romney.
• Republicans are composed of at least three conservative blocs: movement conservatives who pay close attention to issues, social conservatives who want leaders who share their values and national security conservatives who support the military and the wartime President. Economic conservatives are spread over the three groups. And there are, too, the big government Republicans and the moderate and liberal Republicans. A Barack Obama candidacy would siphon off some of them.
• Metro Atlanta — Mitt Romney territory — is ideologically aligned with national Republicans. Social conservatives dominate in areas of Georgia starting about 30-40 miles out from the State Capitol. The rest of Georgia is Chamber of Commerce Republican — traditional with a preference for smaller government and less regulation, but also practical and non-ideological.
• After Super Tuesday it’s hard to see how Romney or Huckabee get the nomination. It’s not so much the sizeable delegate lead that McCain has, but the pattern of voting reflected in Georgia. Romney wasn’t able to connect with voters who are not into the kinds of issues that come before Congress and with those uneasy about the economy. And, frankly, Romney’s Mormonism was more significant than people were willing to acknowledge.
• Georgia’s two senators probably didn’t help John McCain with their endorsements — but despite the vote split here, they haven’t hurt themselves. They didn’t cost either Romney or Huckabee, both of whom got all the votes here they were likely to get, even with more money and more time.
