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Monday, February 4, 2008
Pick three: Nominee, date, VP
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Super Tuesday is upon us.
A new Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll puts momentum with John McCain and Barack Obama. In the delegate race, McCain will have a big day, coming out of Super Tuesday with about 70 percent of the delegates needed to lock up the nomination. Neither Obama nor Hillary Clinton is likely to settle much on Tuesday.
In the Clinton-Obama race, the break is interesting. Obama leads 45-41 in California, 43-33 in Missouri while Clinton leads 43-42 in New Jersey. Pollster John Zogby’s analysis of the break:
“Obama’s lead in California is by virtue of solid support in the Bay Area and among independents (by 20 points), men (20 points), 18- to 29-year-olds (31 points), very liberal voters (22 points), and African-Americans (75%-14%). Clinton does well among women (11 points) and among Hispanics (64%-29%).
“In Missouri, Obama has solid leads in the St. Louis region (16 points), with independents (7 points), young voters (16 points), and African-Americans (62%-26%). He also leads among moderates and men. Clinton leads in Kansas City (7 points), in the southwest part of the state (16 points), and among liberals (8 points), women (5 points), and among voters over 65 (25 points).
“Obama leads in both northern and southern New Jersey, among men, and among African-Americans (74%-16%), while Clinton again holds Hispanics (19 points), whites (10 points), moderates (8 points), liberals (8 points), Jews (22 points), women (9 points), and voters over 65.”
Republicans undoubtedly would prefer Hillary as the nominee. The pattern of support explains one of the reasons why. Even among Democrats, Hillary has trouble attracting men.
We’ll know tomorrow. The Prognosticator’s Window is open for business. Three chores today: Pick a nominee for both parties, the date he or she will clinch the nomination, and for bonus points the vice presidential nominee. Enjoy the wait.
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