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Monday, January 14, 2008
Mitt Romney wrestles with the electability issue
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Electability. For Republican voters, that’s the final test.
Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Of the two, Hillary is less objectionable. This nation will remain at war through the administration of the next president. Hillary, despite her pandering to the party’s hotfoot-to-run wing and rhetoric that tracks the polls, is less likely to blunder into stupid foreign policy mistakes.
Neither she nor Obama is the president I’d have seated across from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or some other nuclear-weapon-obsessed strongman. The prospect is unsettling of a president who appears to believe that our problem with evil men and regimes is that we’ve just not found the right syntax to describe ourselves and our vision in a way that will neutralize their desire to kill us. An inexperienced junior senator who speaks in greeting-card phrases who foolishly promises to meet without precondition with the likes of Ahmadinejad suggests naiveté in an arena where naiveté can be harmful to national security.
Recognizing reality — unless Republicans pick a nominee who can win in November — one of these two Democrats could occupy the White House for the next four to eight years. That is sufficient time to undo everything on the domestic front that George W. Bush accomplished, including tax cuts and the past year’s efforts to contain discretionary spending, including the huge expansion of the Children’s Health Insurance Program, a steppingstone to HillaryCare.
In a phone interview with the AJC’s editorial board on Friday, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney made the case that he’s the most electable Republican. He noted his second-place finish in Iowa and New Hampshire and an expectation that he will do well in South Carolina, Florida and Nevada. He continued:
“Pretty much across the country, I’m seen as doing very, very well. I may not always be first, but I’m either number one or number two in all of these early primary states, so it shows a broad appeal. But from a more strategic Electoral College standpoint, I have to be able to win in the Midwest. I have to be able to keep Florida, and that I can do. There are a lot of Midwesterners who, as you know, have moved to Florida. … I believe we’ll be able to keep Florida.
“We will have a hard time keeping Ohio — and the reason is because our last Republican governor created some real political mess there and the new Democratic governor is quite strong. … As the general election nominee for our party, I can win Michigan, in part because of my dad’s strong name and reputation and because of my complete focus on making sure that we get Michigan out of the one-state recession they’re in.
“I can also win in Wisconsin and Minnesota, and these states would be gravy to us. But if I can win Michigan and we win Florida, then we win the whole thing. … “One other thing, of course, is that I do re-combine the Reagan coalition in terms of social and economic and foreign policy conservatives, but I am also able through my record to speak to, if you will, progressive Republicans and independents by virtue of such accomplishments as having secured health insurance for all my citizens.
“A lot of people will talk about their ideas for health insurance, but I got everybody in Massachusetts on track to be insured. And that is something which no one else will be able to speak to. I’m proud of what I did there. I know there are some conservatives that don’t like that, but I’m proud of that. I’m also proud of what I did in education. We drove our state to be number one in the nation. … We closed the achievement gap between blacks and whites by half during my term as govenror. So I will be very capable of attracting independent voters as well as solidifying the Republican base.”
A Rasmussen poll released Sunday finds that, at the moment at least, John McCain defeats Hillary 49-38 and Obama, 46-43. Mike Huckabee beats Hillary 45-42, while Obama defeats Huckabee, 45-43. A survey conducted earlier in the week has Obama beating Giuliani 48-38 and Romney 45-39.
Romney says flat-out that he’ll win Michigan today, though it’s a polling-mischief state. On the Democratic side, voters can choose Hillary or an uncommitted slate, and no delegates are at stake. Dangerous prediction for a man on the ropes — a man who must convince the Republican base that he can win.
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Taxes, bail-outs and wild hogs
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Before the morning is out, our regular contributor Mid-South Philosopher will be expected to render a report on last night’s Wild Hog Supper, the traditional start of the Georgia General Assembly, for which 20 feral hogs from Wilcox County and vicinity gave their lives.
The dog ate my report on the event. In truth, while the event was underway, I passed north on Highway 21 through Wilcox County — county-seat, Abbeville — and therefore missed the evening’s festivities.
The session’s official launch is today. My guess is that the House will move quickly to override three or four of Gov. Sonny Perdue’s vetoes, the most noteworthy of which will probably be House Bill 91 authored by State Rep. Jill Chambers (R-DeKalb) that requires the executive branch to provide the legislature with information on, among other things, departments’ consultants and contracts. If the House overrides, the Senate is obligated to bring them up for override consideration.
Among other issues on the table:
The Speaker’s tax-swap proposal — an $18,000 homestead exemption on property taxes in return for an a new sales tax on services and a restoration of the tax on groceries — is out there. Lots of legislators want this one to go away. They don’t sense any groundswell of public support for the swap, nor any outcry against property taxes.
Water and the drought. The Legislature will do something, but is still in the fact-gathering stage.
The Grady hospital bail-out — or, more appropriately, a statewide trauma network that will include Grady. The Speaker has proposed an annual fee on cars and trucks, to be paid with ad valorem taxes. It’s not likely to survive. More likely, the trauma network, which is expected to cost $100 million annually, will be funded directly. And every effort will be made to structure it so that it’s not an entitlement. One possibility: A grant portion that covers some particular aspect of trauma center operation. For those who are looking for the Grady bail-out, look elsewhere.
Transportation. A regional sales tax is a possibility. The state wouldn’t impose the regional tax. Instead, the legislature would divide the state into regions and two or more counties in the regions could unite to consider a transportation sales tax. The sticking point is whether County A could impose a sales tax on County B if the residents of County B vote no. If that’s the plan, my bet is that this proposal won’t fly.
There’s more coming. But no need to over-eat. Forty days of feeding await.
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