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Tuesday, January 8, 2008
High-water for McCain
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
New Hampshire entertains, but Hillary lives to rebound another day against Barack Obama and John McCain hits his high-water mark. But neither Democrats nor Republicans had any knock-outs. Hillary’s far from finished.
For McCain, it’s hard to see where he goes from here. He should do well in Michigan, but is not likely to be a factor in South Carolina, where Independents are less of a factor than they were in New Hampshire. There a large number of independents are free-floaters who enjoy the power they exercise in voting in the primary that strikes them as most interesting — McCain in the Republican primary, Obama among Democrats.
In South Carolina the field will encounter the real Republican base. It’s a big one for Clinton and Obama, too, since blacks make up about half the Democratic base. That looks like Obama and Mike Huckabee territory. Too few evangelical Christians in New Hampshire for Huckabee.
New Hampshire really, though, sets up Super Tuesday, when Georgia and 21 other states vote on Feb. 5. The issue Republicans must decide that day is which candidate can defeat Obama.
Romney said Tuesday that Iowa and New Hampshire demonstrate that people think Washington’s broken and want change, which means sending new leaders. He described Obama as a “senator killer,” who knocked off Hillary, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden. “If you want someone who can beat Barack Obama, it’s going to have to be a governor, it’s going to have to be somebody who has a track record of bringing change,” he said on Fox & Friends.
Such arguments, and particularly Romney’s new use of the word “change,” don’t actually help him with the base. Those who oppose him now do so not because they think he’s not the strongest potential Republican candidate against Obama or Hillary, but that he’s somehow inauthentic, unlike Huckabee. Picking up new buzzwords within hours of their apparent success in the other party contributes to that perception.
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Hillary down 10-zip
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
News flash! The first New Hampshire primary votes are in. While the voters of Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location aren’t known for picking the candidates who’ll win statewide, this may be their day.
They chose Barack Obama and John McCain. Among Democrats, Dixville Notch gave Obama 7 votes with 2 for John Edwards and 1 for Bill Richardson. Hart’s Location went 9 for Obama, 3 for Hillary, 1 for Edwards. Among Republicans, Dixville gave McCain 4, Romney 2 and Rudy Giuliani 1. Hart’s favored McCain with 6, Mike Huckabee with 5, Ron Paul with 4, and Romney with 1.
It’s worth noting that these voters chose Wesley Clark in the 2004 Democratic primary, with 14 of 31 votes. Who he?, you say. Nevermind. He never much mattered after Dixville Notch, but for the record he is a retired Army general.
Thinking Right blogsters are no doubt better than the Dixville Notchers at picking the winners. But on this day, I’d have to say they probably have it right on both parties — McCain followed by Romeny. McCain won the state in 2000.
The day’s big story, though, is on the Democratic side. Hillary’s campaign is seriously wounded. Obama’s on the kind of roll that could blow her away by Super Tuesday. She and her team ain’t LSU; they’d prepared for a coronation, not to start the game behind 10-0. This could be an unpleasant night for Hillary.
