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Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Winners on immigration
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
No question the Republican base is in turmoil over the proposed immigration agreement. “The Republican Party might very well collapse” if the bill makes it into law, said Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa). “It is demoralizing that our leadership doesn’t realize it is starting us down the road to national and political suicide.” Republicans will get the blame if it passes and Democrats will get the votes, he said.
Six days into the agreement’s national debate, a side question floats to the surface: Which party benefits most? Conventional wisdom is that Democrats win big because, eventually, Hispanics who become citizens — especially the low- and unskilled with high-demand for government services — will gravitate to the party of big government, as they’ve done in California.
“This will shrink the GOP percentage of Latinos rather than enlarge it,” James G. Gimpel, a government professor at the University of Maryland, told Cybercast News Service’s Fred Lucas for an article on CNSNews.com. He continued:
“A vast majority of this population learn their politics as Democrats. Why? Because they’re poor. There are not a lot of skilled workers and not a lot of educated workers.”
Gimpel predicted major shifts in Georgia, Texas and North Carolina. “Purple states will become blue, and the blue states will become even more blue.”
When considering the likely ramifications of the proposed immigration law, which party benefits is not a particular concern to me. Granted, those with high demand for public services do tend to support the politicians who are best at promising to transfer wealth to them. But there’s evidence the country’s on that treadmill already, with a shrinking base of income tax payers and a growing percentage of Americans, now over half, who rely on government for at least part of their income.
Besides, I’m the optimist. Hispanics, by and large, work hard and work up. They are family-oriented and should be drawn to a party that encourages self-reliance, personal responsibility and free enterprise. It’s not a given that they become Democrats.
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