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Thursday, November 16, 2006
Blue Dogs win; Pelosi Democrats lose
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
As expected, the two Georgia Congressmen in competitive districts — Jim Marshall in the 8th and John Barrow in the 12th — survived recounts announced Wednesday. Marshall won by 1,752 votes in the Middle Georgia district and Barrow won by 864 in the East Georgia district. Former U.S. Rep. Max Burns of Sylvania was an exceptional challenger; the 12th District shouldn’t be seriously competitive for Republican. The Macon-based 8th was more competitive than expected. Marshall seemed before Nov. 7th to be the rising star of the state Democratic Party. After Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor and Secretary of State Cathy Cox, Marshall was the Democrat with the best chance of appealing statewide. The closeness of his race with former U.S. Rep. Mac Collins in a year that belonged to Democrats nationally suggests, however, that in a Presidential year, Marshall could be very vulnerable.
His vulnerablity could be sharply increased depending on the agenda and tone set in the U.S. House by Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi. Democrats like John Lewis, Hank Johnson and David Scott are free to swing as far to the left as they choose. Others, however, like Marshall, Barrow and U.S. Rep. Sanford Bishop had best be careful. Georgia Republicans have established their competence in raising money and turning out the vote. Right candidate, right issue and those three seats could go Republican in 2008.
All of which brings up the issue of the “Blue Dog” Democrats who are now in the process of organizing in the U.S. House. Those are the Democrats, many of whom represent districts like those served by Marshall and Barrow that are far more moderate than Pelosi’s San Francisco, who want Congress to focus on issues like a balanced budget, the national debt, Social Security funding and others that appeal to fiscal and social conservatives. The coalition, led by U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) so far includes 44 Democrats. Boyd, incidentally, is a native Georgian, born in Valdosta, who now represents the Florida panhandle, including Tallahassee and Panama City.
The Blue Dog-GOP conservative coalition should be the voice and it should materially influence the agenda in the new Congress. If Southern Democrats are to survive and prosper, it is in following the Blue Dog lead. Marshall, Barrow and Bishop can survive as Blue Dogs. They can’t as Pelosi Democrats.
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