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Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Can’t spell doom for GOP just yet
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Notes on the campaign:
• Republicans may lose control of the U.S. House, as pundits are predicting. If so, I’ll be shocked. In 17 of 20 open GOP seats, President Bush pulled 61 percent. A dozen of those are considered possible Democratic pick-ups. The Dems need 15. Georgia is unusual, but the only two competitive congressional races here are held by Democrats — Jim Marshall in Macon in the 8th and John Barrow of Savannah in the 12th. A win by Republicans in either would be a major upset. Prediction: Democrats gain 8 nationally, within the range predicted by Karl Rove. For most disgruntled Republicans, a House led by California’s Nancy Pelosi is no option.
• In the Georgia State Senate, the current lineup is 34 Republican, 22 Democrats. Republicans need four to pass constitutional amendments. Won’t happen now — or probably ever. The GOP’s about maxed out in the state Senate. Of the 22 Democrats, 18 are from districts won by John Kerry. Of the remaining four — Tim Golden of Valdosta, George Hooks of Americus, J.B. Powell of Blythe and Steve Thompson of Marietta — Hooks will retire at his pleasure; Golden shows the potential of being the Democrat who can survive among Republicans; and Thompson’s district is becoming more Democratic. Within four years he’s at risk from a challenger on his left, not his right. Powell’s district was won by President Bush and U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson in 2004, when Powell won by 405 votes. Prediction: Neither party gains more than one seat.
• In the Georgia state House, the current lineup is 104 Republicans, 74 Democrats, one independent and one vacancy — though it’s effectively 104-76. This will likely be the low-point election for Democrats, who could lose another three to five seats, including the one held by former House Speaker Terry Coleman of Eastman.
President Bush won 123 of the 180 House seats. Of the 57 won by John Kerry, 45 are majority black in registration. The only Republican district Kerry won is Jill Chambers’ in DeKalb County. Blacks will, incidentally, constitute the majority of the minority in the new House.
Prediction: Republicans net four. The DeKalb County seat held by Republican Paul Jennings, who retired, is vulnerable.
• Long-term, while Democrats may lose seats in rural Georgia with redistricting in four years, their prospects are good in metro Atlanta. When black voter registration reaches 30 percent, Democrats gain the edge. In Clayton, which in January will become the first large county to send all-black delegation to the General Assembly, black registration increased from 45.3 percent in 2000 to 66.3 percent this year. Substantial increases have occurred in Cobb, Douglas, Gwinnett, Henry, Newton and Rockdale as well. Newton and Rockdale have topped 30 percent; Henry and Douglas are approaching it. Democrats will find new life in close-in counties that straddle the interstates.
• In Gwinnett, the black voting percentage has increased from 9.3 percent in 2000 to 17.8 percent now. In actual numbers white registration has increased by 6,272, and black registration gained by 30,754. Registration by Asians, Hispanics and others grew by 25,528.
The message for Republicans: Cultivate minorities or risk losing existing majorities, probably starting with the state Senate. Not soon, but I’d not count on state Senate control for more than another decade. • A 20-point lead in the last month of the campaign is an almost insurmountable gap for a candidate without money. Mark Taylor’s campaign had three major problems.
One is that money favors the party in power. The other is that Taylor actually needed the primary loser, Secretary of State Cathy Cox, to assure her band of female loyalists that she liked him. Didn’t happen. That hurt Taylor, but also her. A party on the ropes remembers its team players.
And finally, Taylor was hurt by the unwillingness of influential blacks to let him move to the right on crime. He returned to the issue over the weekend, but when he launched a TV ad campaign in September, liberal blacks warned him off.
• It still looks like an incumbent’s year to me. When voters are all over the waterfront, as they were in a late-September poll conducted for this newspaper by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc., citing as top concerns crime, education, keeping a lid on taxes and the availability of health care, my reading is that they’re reciting the headlines. Doesn’t strike me as throw-the-bums-out issues.
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