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Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Bye Ralph and Cynthia
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Maybe it should have come as no surprise, since first time candidates rarely fare well, but yesterday most likely derailed any presidential prospects a decade or so hence for former Christian Coalition director Ralph Reed. Bad news, too, for U.S. Rep. Cynthia McKinney.
McKinney’s been pinned twice now by more mainstream candidates — first Denise Majette and yesterday by DeKalb Commissioner Hank Johnson, who’s forced her into a runoff. The McKinney magic’s gone, a sign that the era of housing-project vote-the-slate candidates is passing.
With the black middle class flocking to South DeKalb, and Rockdale, the 4th District is easily the most heavily black congressional district in Georgia. It’s 58.6 percent black, 33.5 percent white in registration, with Asians, Hispanics and others accounting for the rest. It was 51.6 percent black when McKinney lost to Majette in 2002 and since many of the white Jewish voters McKinney alienated have been moved into the 5th District, her fate is clearly with DeKalb’s large black middle class. Mortgage-holders tend not to be bomb-throwers — or to vote for those who are. A prediction: If Johnson doesn’t defeat her now, a candidate like DeKalb CEO Vernon Jones will two years from now, assuming he can stay out of controversy himself.
It was evident early that Reed would be unsuccessful. He ran strong most everywhere, but not strong enough anywhere. Combine those who have antipathy to the Religious Right with Republicans who feared Reed would energize Democrats in November and add in the cross-over voters. The result is a Casey Cagle victory. Smart guy, Casey. He spent lavishly early, well before qualifying, to send the message to other Republicans that he had money to burn. That kept others out and made him beneficiary of all the anti-Reed vote.
Mark Taylor, while no surprise, demonstrated a quality that State Rep. Mary Margaret Oliver (D-Decatur) had observed after running against him for lieutenant governor: Opponents think him a weaker candidate — and yet he wins. Cathy Cox will come back, but her defeat does leave the Democrats without heavy hitters on the bench.
The national election in Georgia is over. Ralph Reed, the budding superstar, is defeated. Cynthia McKinney has lost her magic — and in a district with an oversupply of ambitious politicians, that is very bad news for her. Pretty momentous for a primary.
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