What happened?

The throw-the-rascals-out sentiment never materialized at the polls last Tuesday. Incumbents won.

Clayton County voters pitched a fit about a sorry school board and the local system's possible loss of accreditation. And when it came time to do something about it, only one in five bothered to go to the polls.

The lesson from last Tuesday?

For one, U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss is more secure than I'd previously thought. Part of it is that both Republican and Democratic incumbents fared well.

The same was true for incumbents in the Georgia House and Senate. A loss or a runoff here and there, but through the primary, it's an incumbent's year.

And Clayton. Passionate people did nothing to follow through.

A primary is not a presidential election. People who register now may indeed turn out in November for a historic event —- the first general election with a black man as a major-party nominee.

But, stripped of the hype, it seems even less likely that Georgia could be in play for Barack Obama or that this will be anything other than the usual strongly contested presidential election. Those who are most excited about the Obama candidacy —- the young —- are historically no-shows at the polls.

Among Democrats, with the heated presidential primary between Obama and Hillary Clinton on Feb. 5, turnout by black females ages 18-24 in Georgia was 22 percent. For white females of that age group who voted Democratic, it was 7 percent. Among black males, it was 16 percent; among white males, 6 percent. Among Republicans, it was 7 percent for the category; 12 percent for white males and females.

The point is that registering young voters and actually getting them to vote are entirely different matters.

There's some indication, too, that the much-publicized Obama surge in voter registration is hyped. The "surge," so far at least, is consistent with the 2004 presidential year, according to information posted by Secretary of State Karen Handel's office.

Between January and June of this year, new registration by black females (41,995) grew by 4.8 percent. Between January and June of 2004, black female registration grew (35,100) by 4.9 percent.

Same time period for white female registration growth: 44,644, or 2.5 percent this year; 42,060, or 2.5 percent in 2004.

For black males: 30,844, or 5.1 percent this year; 29,037, or 5.9 percent in 2004. For white males: 39,820, or 2.5 percent this year; 41,934, or 2.8 percent in 2004.

In June-to-June comparisons this presidential year, the percentage increase for black females was 9.0; for black males, 9.7; for white females, 5.0; and for white males, 4.8.

In June-to-June for the 2004 presidential year, it was 8.3 for black females; 9.9 for black males; 4.5 for white females; and 4.8 for white males.

The standout category is women —- and that's not a category that clearly favors one party over the other. Single women gravitate to the Democratic Party, married women to the Republican.

The "surge" of registrations this year is routinely put at 300,000. That's somewhat misleading in that presidential years attract voters who don't go to the polls in intervening years. Of the 300,000 about 107,000 fall into that category. The actual number of new active voters, according to Handel's spokesman, is 193,585. Currently active registration is 4.74 million; in July 2004, it was 3.91 million.

George W. Bush defeated John Kerry in the state by about 550,000 votes in 2004. The last Democrat to carry Georgia was Bill Clinton in 1992. He won by a 14,000-vote margin because independent Ross Perot siphoned off 300,000 —- one reason no disenchanted conservative should abandon John McCain for Bob Barr.

The primary point to be made here is that a gap exists between political hype and reality. We're being spun. It is shaping up to be, well, a typical presidential election year —- hyper and partisan. Georgia is not in play, the hype notwithstanding.

> Jim Wooten is associate editorial page editor. His column appears Sunday, Tuesday and Friday.

jwooten@ajc.com